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31.
The US Intelligence Community (IC) has been heavily criticized for making inaccurate estimates. Many scholars and officials believe that these criticisms reflect inappropriate generalizations from a handful of cases, thus producing undue cynicism about the IC's capabilities. Yet there is currently no way to evaluate this claim, because the IC does not systematically assess the accuracy of its estimates. Many scholars and practitioners justify this state of affairs by claiming that assessing estimative accuracy would be impossible, unwise, or both. This article shows how those arguments are generally unfounded. Assessing estimative accuracy is feasible and desirable. This would not require altering existing tradecraft and it would address several political and institutional problems that the IC faces today. 相似文献
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Alon Friedman 《社会征候学》2013,23(5):684-697
ABSTRACTStatistical software applications are increasingly used to measure student engagement in the classroom. However, more work remains to be done to clarify how meaning is created and measured in classroom settings. With the growing use of technology in the classroom, students’ peer review has become a standard practice to improve students’ writing skills. This article examines the use of an open-source R software application based on Peirce’s sign theory to analyze students’ peer-review comments. Peer review is the assessment of student or professional work by others. The importance of open-source R as a platform lies in the fact that users can extend its code without having to ask permission. The results suggest a new approach, based on computational and social semiotics, to the assessment of students’ peer-review comments in higher education. 相似文献
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Abstract The large influx of immigrants to the United States and New York City from poorer countries has sparked considerable debate as to whether immigrants are becoming a “public charge” to American society. Most arguments have centered around immigrants’ use of cash assistance programs. This article compares immigrants’ receipt of rental housing assistance with that of native‐born Americans. Bivariate analyses reveal that immigrants, as a group, are no more likely than native‐born households to use any form of rental housing assistance. Indeed, in most instances immigrants are less likely than native‐born households to receive assistance, with two exceptions: immigrants who have been in the United States since 1970 and immigrants from the former Soviet Union in New York City. Multivariate analyses reveal similar results, except that immigrants who have been in the United States since 1970 are no more likely than other immigrants to receive housing assistance when we control for other factors. 相似文献
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Edward Friedman 《亚洲研究》2013,45(2)
AbstractBoardman now says that my critique of mainstream quantitative studies of Chinese foreign policy is “perfectly justified,” yet he continues to argue in the same old unjustifiable manner. He continues the quest for timeless, placeless truths which all can agree to, a quest which both Marx and Weber long ago pointed out was impossible in a world of conflictful social relations where perception cannot be divorced from social perspective. The data does not gather itself, pattern itself or explain itself. 相似文献
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Jeffrey A. Friedman 《安全研究》2013,22(4):556-591
How does manpower affect counterinsurgency? Important debates about counterinsurgency theory, military doctrine, force planning, and ongoing military operations revolve around assumptions about the role manpower plays in determining counterinsurgency outcomes. But these assumptions have not, by and large, been subjected to large-n analysis. This paper helps serve that role by examining new data on counterinsurgents’ deployments across 171 campaigns since World War I. These data provide insight into a range of important issues, such as how force size should be measured, whether it is related to counterinsurgent success, whether troop nationality matters, and whether the role of manpower varies across contexts. Of these findings, the most notable is that conventional rules of thumb for force sizing, including the recommendation put forth in official US military doctrine, receive no empirical support. These findings therefore challenge the prevailing wisdom, while laying the groundwork for a range of future scholarship. 相似文献
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