The Sincerity of the British Commitment to the Maintenance of the Balance of Power 1714-1763

'A nation interested in the preservation of a certain distribution of power tries to make its interest appear to be the outgrowth of the fundamental, universally accepted principle of the modern state system, and hence, to be identical with an interest common to all nations. The nation itself, far from defending a selfish, particular concern, poses as the guardian of that general principle; that is, as the agent of the international community.'¹

The balance of power can be seen as one of the guiding principles of European diplomacy over the past three centuries. Yet the subject remains controversial, with critics arguing that states have never routinely or sincerely pursued it. The study examines British policies towards pursuing and maintaining a balance of power in Europe between 1714 and 1763, through an analysis of the pamphlet literature and diplomatic correspondence of the period, as well as the foreign policy record. The policy was debated at length in Britain, with criticism of it mounted on a variety of grounds. But that this was indeed Britain's policy was never doubted. The conclusion is that while British policy was far from altruistic, support for the balance was perceived in Whitehall as dovetailing with national self-interest, and while many factors contributed to British support for the maintenance of the equilibrium, her commitment to maintaining it was sincere.     

Divergent Expectations and Experience: An Empirical Study of the Use Children's Contact Services in Australia

In this article, an overview of the key findings from the Children'sContact Services Project is presented. Children's Contact Services(CCSs) assist separated parents to manage contact arrangementswith their children through the provision of supervised visitationand changeover services. The aims of this project were to investigatethe use of CCSs in Australia by referring agencies (eg. courtsand legal practitioners), and clients of contact services (parentsand children), and to consider the views and expectations ofthese key stakeholders regarding those usages. This approachwas based on the assumption that there are currently conflictingusages and expectations of contact services, and that this situationcould compromise children's well-being. The findings were derivedfrom two studies. The first study involved conducting 142 in-depthinterviews with representatives from the Australian Government,the courts and legal practitioners who referred families toCCSs, CCS staff and management, as well as parents and childrenwho used CCSs. The second study comprised a quantitative analysisof client data collected by CCS staff from 396 families whohad used a government funded CCS in August 2003. The findingsdemonstrated that in Australia, CCSs provided an invaluableservice that was viewed positively by government, referral agents,CCS staff and management, and by the parents and children whoused them. Despite this generally positive view, there wereconflicting expectations of CCSs that, under certain circumstances,compromised children's well-being and that of their parents,particularly their residence mothers.     

On identification problems requiring linked autosomal markers

This paper considers identification problems based on DNA marker data. The topics we discuss are general, but we will exemplify them in a simple context. There is DNA available from two persons. There is uncertainty about the relationship between the two individuals and a number of hypotheses describing the possible relationship is available. The task is to determine the most likely pedigree. This problem is fairly standard. However, there are some problems that cannot be solved using DNA from independently segregating loci. For example, the likelihoods for (i) grandparent–grandchild, (ii) uncle–niece and (iii) half-sibs coincide for such DNA data and so these relations cannot be distinguished on the basis of markers normally used for forensic identification problems: the likelihood ratio comparing any pair of hypotheses will be unity.Sometimes, but not in the examples we consider, other sources of DNA like mtDNA or sex chromosomes can help to distinguish between such equally likely possibilities. Prior information can likewise be of use. For instance, age information can exclude alternative (i) above and also indicate that alternative (iii) is apriori more likely than alternative (ii).More generally, the above problems can be solved using linked autosomal markers. To study the problem in detail and understand how linkage works in this regard, we derive an explicit formula for a pair of linked markers. The formula extends to independent pairs of linked markers. While this approach adds to the understanding of the problem, more markers are required to obtain satisfactory results and then the Lander–Green algorithm is needed. Simulation experiments are presented based on a range of scenarios and we conclude that useful results can be obtained using available freeware (MERLIN and R).The main message of this paper is that linked autosomal markers deserve greater attention in forensic genetics and that the required laboratory and statistical analyses can be performed based on existing technology and freeware.     

Outsmarting the Liars: The Benefit of Asking Unanticipated Questions

We hypothesised that the responses of pairs of liars would correspond less with each other than would responses of pairs of truth tellers, but only when the responses are given to unanticipated questions. Liars and truth tellers were interviewed individually about having had lunch together in a restaurant. The interviewer asked typical opening questions which we expected the liars to anticipate, followed by questions about spatial and/or temporal information which we expected suspects not to anticipate, and also a request to draw the layout of the restaurant. The results supported the hypothesis, and based on correspondence in responses to the unanticipated questions, up to 80% of liars and truth tellers could be correctly classified, particularly when assessing drawings.

Crime-money,reputation and reporting

The emphasis of government legislation on money laundering has been based on the assumption that reporting institutions are able to spot deviant customer behaviour and that implicitly such behaviour is criminal. This paper looks at the drivers for reporting of suspicious or unusual activity, in particular, focusing on the principle of reputation. It considers the evidence over bank disclosure within annual published reports with respect to their money laundering compliance activity; particularly examining whether there was any change in disclosure and hence reputation management reporting by those banks fined by the regulator for lapses of compliance. An attempt is also made to apply the principles of legitimacy theory to evaluate the association between money laundering and reputation looking for evidence of a ‘virtuous cycle of compliance’. However, the findings point to limited public awareness of money laundering and to the adoption of a deficit rather than enhancement model of reputation management.

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The hand that rocks the cradle

This essay responds to Donald Hope's proposal that a woman's right to reproductive choice under the U.S. Constitution should end after she has been pregnant for eight weeks, because before that point science shows the developing embryo lacks human form, while after that point the fetus possesses physical characteristics that make it uniquely human. Hope's line purporting to determine when the fate of developing life becomes a matter of public concern rather than a strictly private decision is drawn both too early and too late. Eight weeks is too early because it imposes coerced motherhood on those least able to bear it while impugning the moral integrity of all women, and it is too late because this rule measures the value of human life by the utility of our physical features. Instead, no line need be drawn at all; the state can give effect to its concern for developing human life by valuing and supporting mothers who make it possible.