The Presumption of Proportionality

This article challenges the assumption that the burden of demonstrating that a limitation of a fundamental right is proportionate rests on the public authority seeking to justify the limitation. After considering the operation of burdens and presumptions in European human rights case‐law it notes the difficulties British domestic courts have had in rigorously applying proportionality tests. It suggests that the concerns which lead judges to weaken the requirement of proportionality would be better met by recognising that certain circumstances give rise to a presumption of proportionality, where the burden of demonstrating disproportionality rests on the right‐holder. Five categories of case in which this applies are proposed, and one which has recently been judicially accepted is rejected. Clarifying the types of case in which a presumption of proportionality applies is a preferable strategy to blurring the standards of justification to be met by those seeking to limit the enjoyment of rights.¹     

A Criminological Approach to Explain Chronic Drunk Driving

The purpose of this paper is to use criminological theories to explain chronic drunk driving. There is little criminological research explaining recidivist drunk driving with criminological theories. Instead, most researchers posit that repeat drunk driving is explained as a byproduct of substance abuse. Although substance abuse is likely correlated to chronic drunk driving, theoretical explanations need to go further to understand a broader set of social and psychological predictors. Factor analysis and linear regression techniques are used to estimate the relationship between items from two assessment instruments with a number of drunken driving offenses. The sample consists of nearly 3,500 individuals on probation and parole in a Southwestern state. The findings support our contention that criminological frameworks are helpful to understand chronic DUI. We found significant results for volatility, antisocial friends, teenage deviance, and negative views of the law, while controlling for age, gender, marital status, and race. DUIs are a serious problem for the criminal justice system and understanding the individual level correlates of repetitive DUI is crucial for policy development. Further, chronic DUI offers criminologists an opportunity to determine the ability of criminological theories to explain this type of behavior.     

Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Postcolonial Conflict

Postulating grievance‐based mechanisms, several recent studies show that politically excluded ethnic groups are more likely to experience civil conflict. However, critics argue that endogeneity may undermine this finding since governments' decisions to include or exclude could be motivated by the anticipation of conflict. We counter this threat to inference by articulating a causal pathway that explains ethnic groups' access to power independently of conflict. Focusing on postcolonial states, we exploit differences in colonial empires' strategies of rule to model which ethnic groups were represented in government at the time of independence. This identification strategy allows estimating the exogenous effect of inclusiveness on conflict. We find that previous studies have tended to understate the conflict‐dampening impact of political inclusion. This finding suggests that grievances have been prematurely dismissed from conventional explanations of conflict, and that policy makers should consider conflict resolution methods based on power sharing and group rights.     

Fiscal Consolidation and Australia's Public Debt

Australia has experienced one of the fastest growing public debt levels in the world post‐Global Financial Crisis due to a series of large federal budget deficits driven by high government spending. In this paper we examine the balance sheet implications of this escalating public debt, before proposing some macro‐fiscal objectives for determining its sustainable level. These objectives are to (i) restore the federal government's solvency; (ii) eliminate foreign public debt; and (iii) achieve budgetary balance over the business cycle. Empirically, we first examine how much fiscal consolidation is required for debt stabilisation at current levels, before considering what sized budget balances are needed to achieve the target debt to GDP ratios consistent with the proposed objectives. The results show that no target debt to GDP level consistent with the optimal levels will be met on current fiscal settings in the medium term. This implies significantly greater fiscal consolidation is required to minimise future fiscal risk.     

Structuring Judicial Discretion in China: Exploring the 2014 Sentencing Guidelines

In recent years, a range of western jurisdictions has introduced reforms designed to restrict and guide judicial discretion at sentencing. The reforms enacted include mandatory sentencing laws and guiding statutes prescribing sentencing purposes and principles as well as important aggravating and mitigating factors. However, formal guidelines are the most promising and well-studied innovation. We may now add China to the growing list of countries that have recognized the utility of guidelines. Over the past decade, China has slowly developed sentencing guidelines for its courts. The new guidelines contain both general directions with respect to the determination of sentence as well as specific numerical guidelines for common offences. The guidelines do not follow the approach taken by the US schemes, many of which employ a two-dimensional sentencing grid. Instead, China has adopted a strategy consisting of “Starting Point” sentences which are then adjusted by the court to reflect relevant mitigating and aggravating factors. This approach is much closer to the guidelines developed in England and Wales and those proposed but not yet implemented in New Zealand and Israel. In this article, we explore the new Chinese guidelines and provide a limited comparative analysis with guidelines in other jurisdictions. England and Wales is selected as the principal comparator since it has developed and implemented a comprehensive system consisting of both offence-specified guidelines as well as generic guidelines.     

Spectator Violence in Sports: A North American Perspective

Spectator violence has long been associated with professional football in Europe. This article examines the issue of spectator violence from a North American perspective. We begin by noting that there is little systematic research into the scope of spectator disorder in North America. Perhaps for this reason there is little consensus about the true scale of the problem on this side of the Atlantic. It does seem clear at least that there is less spectator violence associated with professional sports in North America. After reviewing a number of explanations for this finding, we conclude that it has less to do with criminal justice policies or practices, than the social context surrounding the 'spectatorship' of sports in North America. Perhaps the most important explanation for the variance in crowd behaviour concerns the demographic profiles of sports spectators in European football and North American sports.     

A Disruptive Influence? “Prevent‐ing” Problems and Countering Violent Extremism Policy in Practice

This article describes how disrupting the activities of suspected violent extremists has become an increasingly significant construct in the policy and practice of the Prevent strand of UK Counter‐Terrorism. Informed by empirical data collected during semi‐structured interviews with police officers involved in conducting disruptions and members of the communities where these occurred, blended with a limited amount of field observation, the analysis documents how and why a logic of disruption has assumed increasing prominence in counter terrorism work. In respect of police interventions in particular, implementing disruptions, rather than pursuing fully‐fledged prosecutions, represents a pragmatic way of reconciling increasing demand with limited resources, as well as managing some of the difficulties of translating intelligence into legal evidence. Conceptualized in this way, the analysis positions disruption as a distinctive mode of crime prevention; one premised upon logics of near‐event interdiction. As such, it is understood as rather different in its operations and functions to other forms of “early intervention” that are increasingly prominent in much contemporary crime prevention policy. By focusing upon how specific Prevent interventions are implemented and performed this analysis makes a particular contribution to our knowledge of counter terrorism work. This reflects the fact that most previous studies of Prevent and other countering violent extremism programs have provided analyses of community perceptions and reactions to policing and the policy frame, rather than the configuration of the interventions themselves.     

History of interpersonal violence, abuse, and nonvictimization trauma and severity of psychiatric symptoms among children in outpatient psychiatric treatment

In a clinical sample of child psychiatry outpatients, chart review data were collected for 114 consecutive admissions over a 1-year period at a Child and Adolescent Outpatient Psychiatry Clinic. Data included history of documented maltreatment, potentially traumatic domestic or community violence, neglect or emotional abuse, and noninterpersonal stressors as well as demographics, psychiatric diagnoses, and parent-rated child emotional and disruptive behavior problems. On a bivariate and multivariate basis, any past exposure to interpersonal violence-but not to noninterpersonal traumas-was related to more severe disruptive behavior problems, independent of the effects of demographics and psychiatric diagnoses. Noninterpersonal trauma and psychiatric diagnoses were associated with emotional problems; exposure to interpersonal violence appeared to partially account for this relationship despite not being independently associated with emotional problem severity. History of exposure to interpersonal violence warrants clinical and research attention as a severity marker and potential treatment focus in psychiatric outpatient services for children, particularly those with disruptive behavior problems.