Presidential Party,Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916–1996

There is little professional consensusregarding the effect of economic conditionson House Elections. We argue that recentwork still uses the paradigm of Party toorganize their data and tests. Given thatrecent developments in the theory ofcongress emphasize the paradigm ofIncumbency, we investigate the empiricalrelevance of that competing paradigm. Weshow that (1) Incumbency matters in a purePresidential Party Model of HouseElections, (2) Presidential Party mattersin a pure Incumbency Model, (3) Once bothParty and Incumbency are accounted for,economic conditions exert a highlysignificant and temporally stable influenceon House elections, (4) Return Rates aremore affected by economic fluctuations thanare Vote Shares, and (5) Not allPresidential Party incumbents face the samedegree of electoral accountability foreconomic fluctuations.     

The Same Old Song?—Stability and Change in Relationship Schemas from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

Relationship schemas are core elements of personality that guide interpersonal functioning. The aim of this study is to examine stability and change in relationship schemas across two developmental epochs—adolescence and young adulthood—in the stories that people tell about their interactions with others. Using the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme Method, relationship themes were coded from semistructured interviews conducted in adolescence and again at age 25. The sample consisted of 40 participants in a longitudinal study of adolescent and young adult psychological development. There was considerable stability in the frequency with which particular themes were expressed in the narratives of adolescents and young adults. Significant changes from adolescence to young adulthood included a decrease in the perception of others as rejecting and of the self as opposing others. Young adults saw themselves and others more positively, and used a broader repertoire of themes in their relationship narratives than they had as adolescents. The basic continuity and particular changes in relationship schemas found in this study are consistent with knowledge about the adolescent-to-young-adult transition derived from other empirical and clinical findings. Relationship schemas may be rich units of study for learning about the development of interpersonal functioning.     

A multinominal logit analysis of the influence of policy variables and board experience on FOMC voting behavior

Previous studies have used probit or logit models to analyze two states of monetary policy (tighter or looser). In this paper we employ multinominal logit to permit Federal Reserve monetary policy to assume one of three alternative states (tighter, looser, or no change) as a function of three independent economic variables (unemployment, real growth, and inflation) and the amount of experience of the Board of Governors. The results indicate that the Federal Reserve reacted differently under Burns, Miller and Volcker and between Volcker's two operating procedures in the formulation of monetary policy.     

Black and white identity development: Aspects and perspectives

Empirical definitions of identity formation, and five variants, were constructed using a technique for studying multiple self-images. The method was then applied to a sample of black and white lower socioeconomic class boys. These boys were tested with this technique and given in-depth interviews twice a year, from the start to the finish of high school. The results of these longitudinal studies disclose that the black and white adolescents have emphatically differentpatterns of identity formation. The blacks are characterized by unchanging configurations of self-images. Both the content of their self-definitions and the interrelations for these self-definitions remain strikingly stable over the years. The whites, on the other hand, display a progressive integration of different self-images and stabilization of the content of these images. The more qualitative interview data corroborate these quantitative findings. The patterns displayed by the blacks are consistent with the definition of identity foreclosure, a disruption in ego identity development. The whites' patterns, however, are consistent with progressive identity formation. In addition to discussing these results, the paper goes on to consider ways to understand the findings. Sociocultural as well as cognitive aspects of the racial differences in identity development are explored.This is a revised version of a presentation to the Fall Meeting of the American Psychoanalytical Association, December 16, 1970. The earlier version was also the recipient of the Harry C. Solomon Essay Prize at the Massachusetts Mental Health Center, June 1970.Received M.A. (Social Anthropology) from Harvard University and M.D. from Yale University. Currently studying self-image and cognitive development in populations of normal and psychiatrically impaired adolescents.     

Optimally Allocating Federal Money to Cities

The purpose of this article is to discuss some basic methods for optimally allocating federal money to cities. Optimally allocating in this context means using the quantitative methods of operations research, management science, and related fields in order to allocate federal money to cities in such a way as to (1) maximize benefits subject to a given budget, (2) minimize costs subject to a minimum satisfaction level, or (3) maximize benefits minus costs. The basic methods include (1) allocating by marginal rates of return, which partly relies or statistical regression analysis; and (2) allocating by part/whole percentages, which partly relies on ideas associated with multiattribute utility theory. The basic methods will be illustrated with the example of allocating anticrime dollars to cities, although one could easily reason by analogy to allocation in any subject matter area.     

Weighing both sides: morality, mortality, and framing contests over obesity

Despite recent and growing media attention surrounding obesity in the United States, the so-called obesity epidemic remains a highly contested scientific and social fact. This article examines the contemporary obesity debate through systematic examination of the claims and claimants involved in the controversy. We argue that four primary groups-antiobesity researchers, antiobesity activists, fat acceptance researchers, and fat acceptance activists-are at the forefront of this controversy and that these groups are fundamentally engaged in framing contests over the nature and consequences of excess body weight. While members of the fat acceptance groups embrace a body diversity frame, presenting fatness as a natural and largely inevitable form of diversity, members of the antiobesity camp frame higher weights as risky behavior akin to smoking, implying that body weight is under personal control and that people have a moral and medical responsibility to manage their weight. Both groups sometimes frame obesity as an illness, which limits blame by suggesting that weight is biologically or genetically determined but simultaneously stigmatizes fat bodies as diseased. While the antiobesity camp frames obesity as an epidemic to increase public attention, fat acceptance activists argue that concern over obesity is distracting attention from a host of more important health issues for fat Americans. We examine the strategies claimants use to establish their own credibility or discredit their opponents, and explain how the fat acceptance movement has exploited structural opportunities and cultural resources created by AIDS activism and feminism to wield some influence over U.S. public health approaches. We conclude that notions of morality play a central role in the controversy over obesity, as in many medical disputes, and illustrate how medical arguments about body weight can be used to stymie rights claims and justify morality-based fears.