The dynamics of candidate evaluations and vote choice in 2008: looking to the past or future?

In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day. In evaluating the relative effects of these political figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in which retrospective evaluations of the previous administration might provide a starting point for assessing the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on information learned during the campaign helps voters to update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the “Palin effect,” based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.     

The Global Expansion of Capital Logic

In analyzing international politics and economics, scholars have used a variety of paradigms. Economists, for example, look at globalization and its effects on consumers, developed and developing countries, and its effect on the political structure of various countries. In the realm of politics, some look to the role of the United Nations, others look to the role of the United States as the lone superpower.     

China＇s Diplomacy： New Trends and New Characteristics

In the 60 years since the founding of the People＇s Republic of China, the country has pursued a peace-oriented foreign policy. After the end of the Beijing Olympics in October 2008, China＇s foreign relations began to take on a new look. The country now participates more actively in global and regional issues, forging multilateral and bilateral relationships, and entering into discussions on maritime rights and military strategy. It could be said that China is now showing more initiative, independence, confidence, transparency and a greater sense of responsibility, and strengthening cooperation with all partners. These changes are mainly due to China＇s increasing comprehensive national strength and its need to integrate into the international system in a peaceful and harmonious manner with benefits to all. China has redefined its identity and reassessed its interests. These changes are ongoing, and the nation＇s diplomacy is still not perfect, but the general direction has now been set.     

Indo-Russian Strategic Partnership

In recent years, the international strategic situation has been undergoing tremendous changes, while the pattern of international strategy has also experienced a profound shift. India-Russia relations have also been changing. As an important phenomenon in contemporary international politics, the relationship between India and Russia deserves close attention.     

AN INSTITUTIONALIZED GUARANTEE

On March 15, the Second Session of the 13th National People's Congress, China's top legislature, adopted the country's first Foreign Investment Law to promote, protect and man age foreign investment in the changed circumstances. The new law, which will take effect on January 1, 2020, is expected to enhance the confidence of foreign-funded enterprises in China.     

试论运用司法会计技术查办经济犯罪案件的策略

司法会计技术作为查办经济犯罪案件的重要手段之一,越来越受到公安司法机关的重视.本文从我国司法会计技术的发展现状入手,分别对运用司法会计检查技术和鉴定技术的策略提出可操作性意见,以便更好地发挥司法会计技术在查办经济犯罪案件中的重要作用.     

论中法两国全面的战略伙伴关系

2004年1月,胡锦涛对法国进行了成功的国事访问,并同法国总统希拉克签署了新的中法联合声明,把两国的全面伙伴关系提升到全面战略伙伴关系.这是对1997年中法联合声明的充实和发展,更突显了在当前国际形势下中法关系的重要性和战略意义,它必将把两国关系推向更新的发展阶段,在国际上将会产生深远的影响.     

世界经济指标

表1:主要国家和地区国内生产总值(名义)单位:亿美元国家或地区1997年1998年1999年2000年2001年2002年2003年美国83043.087470.092684.098170.0101280.0104870.0110041.0日本43056.239309.144528.547458.741623.239738.142932.0德国21108.921444.621080.318702.818559.319831.624020.3英国13267.614222.114615.114411.514318.015675.817976.7法国14061.214519.514426.813098.413206.314381.717590.3意大利11668.111965.211798.610755.310902.411860.714695.6加拿大6375.46167.76612.67249.27155.27378.98698.7中国9034.59542.69986.710791.91…     

Eight Myths about Sino-U.S. Relations

In recent years,copious amounts have been written on Sino-U.S.relations.However,there has been little in the way of critical examination of the ideas proposed.Commentators are eager to put forward their judgments,but they are lax in testing their veracity and very few people have bothered to critically assess their logic,reasoning processes and the reliability of the facts they put forward.This article attempts to reflect on some of the most popular judgments on Sino-U.S.relations in recent years and to provoke further discussion.