Indigenous Migration Dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon: A Longitudinal and Hierarchical Analysis

Amazonian indigenous populations are approaching a critical stage in their history in which increasing education and market integration, rapid population growth and degradation of natural resources threaten the survival of their traditions and livelihoods. A topic that has hardly been touched upon in this context is migration and population mobility. We address this by analysing a unique longitudinal dataset from the Ecuadorian Amazon on the spatial mobility of five indigenous groups and mestizo co-residents. Analyses reveal traditional and new forms of population mobility and migrant selectivity, including gendered forms of marriage migration and rural-urban moves driven by education. These results illustrate a dynamic present and an uncertain future for indigenous populations in which rural, natural-resource-based lifeways may well be sustained but with increasing links to urban areas.     

Risk assessment in offenders with mental disorders: relative efficacy of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables

Following the meta-analysis by Bonta, Law, and Hanson, (1998) this study examined the ability of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables to predict reoffending in offenders in the United Kingdom who had mental disorders. The efficacy of each variable in predicting rate of general reoffending and violent reoffending was investigated. Age on admission, number of days hospitalized, and number of previous offenses were the most effective variables in predicting re-offending, with number of previous offenses being the strongest predictor. Clinical diagnosis was not predictive of reoffending when the variance attributable to these other predictors was controlled for. None of the variables were able to discriminate between general offenders and violent offenders indicating that the same variables predict both types of reoffending. The results showed that reconviction in offenders with mental disorders can be predicted using the same criminogenic variables that are predictive in offenders without mental disorders.     

Fresh challenges faced on the ground by the Kingdom of the Sky: A quest for peace,harmony and stability

This article argues that Lesotho’s landlocked position, which inhibits trade and results in enclaves of the poor, not only leads to its dependency on South Africa, but also contributes to its instability. It points out that destabilisation remains a problem in spite of Lesotho having served as an excellent model of peaceful transfer of power in a strengthened democratic arena under its 1993 Constitution, as the country had just celebrated 20 years of relative peace. However, despite the 1991 Windhoek Declaration military coups, violence, violation of both human rights and human security continue to contribute to instability in Lesotho, requiring the frequent intervention of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and especially so following the attempted coup in 2014. Lesotho’s Coalition government, which is a prime-ministerial form of government, is discussed in some detail in this article. The role of peacekeeping forces is also examined. The article recommends demilitarisation as the only practical, viable and long term solution to the problem of recurring coups in this country. The authors conclude that a sustained campaign against corrupt activities by government, though laudable, has somewhat surprisingly served to weaken the foundation of the Coalition in Lesotho.