Modeling health insurance expansions: effects of alternate approaches.

Estimates of the costs and consequences of many types of public policy proposals play an important role in the development and adoption of particular policy programs. Estimates of the same, or similar, policies that employ different modeling approaches can yield widely divergent results. Such divergence often undermines effective policymaking. These problems are particularly prominent for health insurance expansion programs. Concern focuses on predictions of the numbers of individuals who will be insured and the costs of the proposals. Several different simulation-modeling approaches are used to predict these effects, making the predictions difficult to compare. This paper categorizes and describes the different approaches used; explains the conceptual and theoretical relationships between the methods; demonstrates empirically an example of the (quite restrictive) conditions under which all approaches can yield quantitatively identical predictions; and empirically demonstrates conditions under which the approaches diverge and the quantitative extent of that divergence. All modeling approaches implicitly make assumptions about functional form that impose restrictions on unobservable heterogeneity. Those assumptions can dramatically affect the quantitative predictions made.     

Psychological mindedness and abstract reasoning in late childhood and adolescence: An exploration using new instruments

This study introduces two new measures of psychological mindedness, applying them in a study of the growth of abstract thinking in children and adolescents in a developmental design. The capacity to achieve psychological understanding of the self and of others involves comprehension of the motives, attitudes, and characteristics of the self and others. Psychological mindedness toward the self (PS) and toward others (PO) may be seen as complex cognitive capacities that should show a pattern of related development in childhood. Three groups of 60 fifth, eighth, and twelfth graders completed two measures of formal operations and two instruments to assess the two components of psychological mindedness. We find that psychological mindedness and abstract thinking both increase significantly with age, although the relationship between them is complex and varies with gender and age. Because the development of abstract reasoning skills does not correlate with the development of psychological mindedness in a simple way, a more complex model is necessary, taking age and gender differences into account. Performance on the two measures of psychological mindedness is found to be largely unrelated, suggesting that these are two different psychological skills. Implications of these findings are discussed, with special reference to education, peer counseling, and psychotherapy.Received Ph.D. from University of Michigan and psychoanalytic training from The Michigan Psychoanalytic Institute. Main research interests are psychoanalytic theory, the therapeutic alliance, and insight and self-observation.Received Ph.D. from University of Michigan. Main research interests are adolescent development, peer counseling, short-term psychotherapy, and the psychology of women.Received M.A. from The University of Michigan. Main research interests are infant mental health and attachment theory.Received M.A. from The University of Michigan. Main research interests are gender identity and children of divorce.Received B.A. from The University of Michigan. Main research interests are gender issues and adolescent development.     

Perceptions of the existence and causes of structural violence in Ogoni communities,Nigeria

This article explores the perceptions of Ogoni people about the existence and causes of structural violence in their communities. It relies heavily on qualitative data collected from five oil-rich and three oil-poor Ogoni communities, between February and May 2014, during which 200 open-ended survey questionnaires were administered and 189 were returned. Three focus group discussions and 69 key informant interviews were also conducted. The findings of the article are that structural violence can be found in Ogoniland; it is manifested in both visible and invisible forms; it is blamed by elites on exogenous factors, but by the disadvantaged on both exogenous and endogenous factors; and it will only be eliminated by reducing inequality and increasing democratisation.     

Discrepancies in Adolescent Romantic Couples' and Observers' Perceptions of Couple Interaction and their Relationship to Depressive Symptoms

We examined discrepancies in adolescent romantic couple members' and observers' perceptions of couples' conversations in order to further understand adolescents' romantic interactions and their association with adolescents' depressive symptoms. We used a video-recall procedure to assess 61 adolescent romantic couples' perceptions of their videotaped conversations with each other. Our results suggest that although couple members and outside observers agreed that adolescent romantic couples' conversations were generally harmonious, adolescent dating partners and observers perceived couples' communications in systematically different ways and perceived inequalities in their interactions. Perceptions of discrepancies in power were more salient in females' perceptions. Both males and females perceived themselves more positively than their partners. Finally, discrepancies in couple members' perceptions of their conversations were somewhat associated with their mental health. Boys who viewed themselves more favorably than their girlfriends viewed them exhibited fewer depressive symptoms. Girls who perceived fewer inequalities between themselves and their boyfriends showed fewer depressive symptoms.     

Single-issue voting: Elite-mass linkages

In this paper we consider the abortion and E.R.A. issues as examples of single-issue politics, as well as the nature of single-issue politics in general. We argue that many single issues are what others have called easy issues but that hard-issue voting as well as easy-issue voting may be occurring on both issues. We test this hypothesis using both mass and elite data sets. Our findings suggest that political activists may be cuing the masses into a pattern of single-issue voting, and hence keeping the battle over abortion and the E.R.A. intense.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1981 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York, September 3–6, 1981.     

Examination of acetone findings in suspected drug-facilitated sexual assaults: A case series

Acetone presence in human biological specimens can result from exogenous administration or endogenous production, resulting from diabetes, dietary composition, alcoholism, and stress response. Victims of drug-facilitated sexual assaults (DFSA) are understood to experience enhanced stress. At the Harris County Institute of Forensic Sciences (HCIFS), DFSA drug testing includes analysis of volatile compounds, ethanol, methanol, isopropanol, and acetone, by headspace gas chromatography/flame ionization detection. The prevalence of acetone-positive specimens in DFSA casework has been observed to exceed that of other human performance case types. In this report, DFSA cases received between 2019 and 2021 (n = 393) were reviewed and 41 acetone-positive cases were detailed. Overall, nearly 11% of the DFSA cases had acetone-positive blood or urine specimens, where 3% identified acetone only, 6% identified acetone and other drug(s), and 2% identified acetone, ethanol, and other drug(s). Acetone concentrations ranged from 0.010 to 0.147 g/100 mL in urine. Other drugs such as nor-carboxy-Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol, amphetamine, methamphetamine, ethanol, and benzoylecgonine were commonly detected. Elevated stress response encountered during DFSAs may facilitate the mechanism behind enhanced acetone production leading to increased identification. Limited availability of victim medical history precludes understanding the contribution of other disease states or physiological conditions. Nonetheless, the identification of acetone in DFSA specimens supports its potential as a biomarker of trauma in forensic toxicology casework and warrants future research within the community.     

Challenges to the Theory and Practice of Polyarchy: the rise of the political left in Korea

This paper provides an analysis of the development of democracy in Korea since the transition from authoritarianism in 1987, and its implications for critical analyses of Third World democratisation. Accounts of ‘low intensity democracy’ or ‘polyarchy’ have noted Third World democratisation for its constrained and elite-centred nature, and as an outcome of US foreign policy, which has sought to demobilise restive popular movements and extend the reach of global capital. However, the Korean general elections of 2004 saw the historic entry of the explicitly socialist Korean Democratic Labour Party (kdlp) into the National Assembly. A re-examination of post-authoritarian politics in fact shows a process of continuous contestation that belies the claims made by the polyarchy literature. Formal democratisation has by its very nature allowed for a counter-movement to be mobilised. The paper also examines the relationship between the kdlp and the mass labour union movement and argues that, while democracy has provided opportunities for participation by previously marginalised social forces, concomitant neoliberal restructuring has limited the development of the mass movements from which such political projects draw their strength. Thus, inquiry into the implications of democratisation for a progressive challenge to neoliberal capitalism must also extend beyond ‘politics’ to mass movements in the socioeconomic sphere.     

Penal Populism and the Public Thermostat: Crime,Public Punitiveness,and Public Policy

This article makes the case that feedback processes in democratic politics—between crime rates, public opinion, and public policy—can account for the growth of penal populism in Britain. It argues that the public recognize and respond to rising (and falling) levels of crime, and that in turn public support for being tough on crime is translated into patterns of imprisonment. This contributes to debates over the crime–opinion–policy connection, unpacking the dynamic processes by which these relationships unfold at the aggregate level. This uses the most extensive data set ever assembled on aggregate opinion on crime in Britain to construct a new over‐time measure of punitive attitudes. The analysis first tests the thermostatic responsiveness of punitive attitudes to changes in recorded crime rates as well as self‐reported victimization, and then examines the degree to which changes in mass opinion impact on criminal justice policy.