History,regionalism, and CARICOM trade: A gravity model analysis

Abstract

A gravity model is fitted to 17 annual cross sections, 1980–1996, of bilateral trade data (imports and exports) between CARICOM member states and selected trading partners. Specifically, the paper investigates the effects of regional integration, colonial legacies and linguistic ties on CARICOM bilateral trade flows between member states and between member states and North American and European Union countries. The empirical results indicate that history and regionalism have had significant and strong effects on CARICOM trade. Additionally, two traditional explanatory variables in gravity models, income per capita and population, have significant and positive effects on CARICOM trade while the distance between trading partners exerts the expected negative effect.     

Are you sitting comfortably? Estimating incumbency advantage in the UK: 1983–2010 – A research note

This note adapts two models commonly used to estimate the incumbency advantage that US members of Congress enjoy – the ‘slurge’ and the Gelman-King Index – to provide comparable estimates for UK MPs. The results show that Liberal Democrats enjoy extremely large such advantages on a par with those of US Congressmen of between 5% and 15% of the vote. Labour and the Conservatives have incumbency advantages at around 2% and 1% respectively. The note estimates that effects could have changed the outcome in as many as 25 seats in some elections, and that they cost the Conservatives the chance to govern alone after the 2010 election.     

Beyond the Blame Game: Political Strategies for State Funding Reform

There is growing concern that intergovernmental financial relations in the Australian federation are becoming increasingly acrimonious and dysfunctional. This paper argues that it is necessary to analyse State funding as a whole, including the critical relationship between State‐level taxation and its reform and the broader Commonwealth Grants Commission regime, if we are to establish a system of State funding which is financially sustainable, promotes economic efficiency and is broadly congruent with established norms of Australian federalism. Above all, based on international experience, we argue Commonwealth leadership is required to achieve this goal. We conclude with a case study concerning resource taxation which demonstrates how the Commonwealth could provide leadership using a ‘bundled’ approach to policy reform. It is argued that such an approach has the potential to alleviate wider intergovernmental conflicts which currently afflict Australian federalism.     

The afterlife of modernity in the politics of the postmodern∗

Abstract

Though poststructuralist and postmodern critiques provide a powerful tool for deconstructing contemporary power relations, when they are overextended, they lose their subversive edge and actually begin to serve the development of new forms of social domination. Taken as an example, Baudrillard's theory of postmodern society reflects this very tendency. While on the surface Baudrillard has abandoned the hierarchies of modernity upon which order and domination have depended, his critique reintroduces its own countersubversive hierarchy upon which a postmodern order depends. As parts of a postmodern conceptual framework, these hierarchies serve to expand the system of domination manufactured in contemporary communications industries and to undermine resistance through the production of simulated social and political realities.     

Running the Blockade: Information Technology,Terrorism, and the Transformation of Islamic Mass Culture

Arab media is no longer limited to state-sponsored sources, opening a door of opportunity to the Muslim world. Islamic terrorist groups leverage information technology to form resilient, networked organizations that influence how many Muslims perceive events and U.S. political goals. This article looks at the connection between information technology and cultural transformation in the Middle East. It focuses on how information technology—as the major weapon system in the battle of ideas—has been used effectively by Islamic extremists and less so by the U.S. Important conclusions are drawn regarding the necessity of culturally-attuned uses of information technology.     

Is Duverger's Law Working in South Korea? An Analysis of District-Level Elections 1988–2012

How do electoral rules shape competition? District level data from South Korea's seven legislative elections since democratization (1988-2012) provides a means to test one of the oldest findings in political science: Duverger's Law. South Korea provides a unique opportunity to analyze variation in mixed election rules, where seats are allocated in both single member districts (SMDs) and by a nationwide party list by proportional representation (PR), as the country has used three different electoral formulas over the time period. Through quantitative analysis, evidence of a gradual reduction in the number of candidates is evident as is a more nuanced influence of regionalism on vote concentration.     

Rethinking the ‘presidentialism debate’: conceptualizing coalitional politics in cross-regional perspective

The democratization literature has increased our understanding of the role of institutional variables in the study of democratic sustainability. Debates about the dangers of presidentialism have been central to this body of research. In more recent times the presidentialism literature has focused on the capacity of presidents to overcome the conflict-inducing nature of the separation of powers through successful coalition formation. This review article moves this research agenda forward by examining how presidents build legislative coalitions in different regional contexts. Based on the extant analysis of presidential systems in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and the former Soviet Union, the article develops the idea that presidents use a toolbox of five key tools when constructing legislative coalitions: agenda power, budgetary authority, cabinet management, partisan powers, and informal institutions. We find that presidents typically utilize more than one tool when they act; that the combinations of tools they employ affects the usage and strength of other parts of the presidential toolkit; and that the choice of tools can create negative consequences for the wider political system. Our findings reveal the limitations of the univariate bias of much of the early presidentialism literature and the need for greater cross-regional research into the effects of presidential rule.     

Politics,proximity and paranoia: the evolution of Kashmir as a nuclear flashpoint

This article traces the evolution of Kashmir as a “nuclear flashpoint,” and the relationship between Kashmir, nuclear weapons, and regional security. The first section discusses the concept of a geopolitical flashpoint, providing a definition and a series of historical examples. The Kashmir issue and its role in the broader Indo-Pakistani conflict fit reasonably neatly into this definition. A second section briefly traces the history of nuclear weapons programs in the region, as the potential for nuclear escalation by competing powers or their allies is a key factor in defining nuclear flashpoints (a post-1945 phenomenon). The third section examines the evolution of the Kashmir issue and successive Indo-Pakistani crises within a nuclearized regional environment from 1984 to 2003. The final section assesses the prospects for Kashmir in the near future, and concludes that due to underlying political factors, Kashmir will remain a nuclear flashpoint for the foreseeable future.