Israel and its enemies

He has written widely on international relations and international law. His work Security Or Armageddon: Israel’s Nuclear Strategyremains the authoritative treatment of the subject. His newest book is Force, Order and Justice: International Law in an Age of Atrocity.     

Adolescent sexual activity and pregnancy: Socioenvironmental problems,physical health,and mental health

This paper examines the association between adolescent pregnancy and socioenvironmental, physical, and mental health problems in 1590 inner-city females aged 13–18 who use health clinics. Adolescents who have become pregnant, those who are sexually active but never have been pregnant, and those who are sexually inactive are compared. The sexually active youngsters come from more psychosocially disadvantaged backgrounds than their sexually inactive peers; the sexually active girls who become pregnant come from more psychosocially disadvantaged backgrounds than those who have never been pregnant. Despite this, the youths who have become pregnant do not have more current relationship problems, more stressful life events, or worse physical health than the never-pregnant sexually active youths. Although sexually inactive youths have the lowest rates of mental health problems, adolescents who have been pregnant have lower rates of anxiety and conduct disorder symptoms than those who are sexually active but never pregnant.Supported by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Fieldwork conducted by Survey Research Associates.Research interests include adolescents and children, parenting, and families.Research interests include epidemiology of child and adolescent psychiatric disorder.Research interests include psychiatric epidemiology/deviant behavior.Research interests include mental health and statistical issues.Research interests include health behavior and mental health issues.     

Political business cycles at the municipal level

The present article tests predictions of rational political business cycle models using a large and previously unexplored data set of Portuguese municipalities. This data allows for a clean test of these predictions due to the high level of detail on expenditure items, an exogenous fixed election schedule, and homogeneity of Portuguese local governments with respect to policy instruments and institutions. Estimation results clearly reveal the opportunistic behaviour of local governments. In pre-electoral periods, they increase total expenditures and change their composition favouring items that are highly visible to the electorate. This behaviour is consistent with an effort to signal competence and increase chances of re-election.     

Voters and Voting in Multilevel Systems – An Introduction

This Special Issue, ‘Voters and Voting in Multilevel Systems', is a contribution to a better understanding of the functioning and logics of the present-day German electoral system, but its findings and consequences stretch beyond the German case. After all, Germany is ideally suited for studying multilevel voting and the interdependences and mutual repercussions of multilayer electoral systems. The Special Issue takes the challenges and changes in voting behaviour as a starting point and searches for links and causal relationships between levels. Overall, it has two major goals: first, to examine how (increasing) volatility in voting behaviour and declining participation rates manifest themselves at all layers of the multilevel system, possibly amplifying each other; second, to turn the usual perspective on its head by examining the impact of second-order elections and vote choices on parties' fortunes and electoral outcomes at the national level.     

Multi-Level Voting: A Stabilising Force or a Push towards Increasing Voter Volatility?

Germany has witnessed a drastic decline in turnout and, at the same time, a clear increase in voter volatility, late deciding and party switching. These changes affected all layers of the federal system to different degrees and with varying speed. While standard explanations refer to processes of modernisation and value change to explain the decline of stable and loyal partisanship, this article focuses on the role of an – until now – neglected aspect: the significance of multi-level voting in both maintaining voter stability and fostering its decline. After all, party loyalty needs to be re-activated and mobilised across individuals' life-cycles. Electoral campaigns are the prime occasion for parties to revive the link with ‘their’ core clientele. When campaigning is frequent, as in federal systems, mobilising takes place almost constantly. This article argues that multi-level voting contributed considerably to the stability which characterised German party politics for decades after World War II. However, since parties increasingly use campaigns to recruit new voter segments at the expense of mobilising core voters, today, multi-level voting has negative effects on stable party attachments and thus contributes to the increase in fluidity and volatility we witness today.     

Evaluating the Accuracy of Cranial Indices in Ancestry Estimation Among South African Groups

Historically, population differences were quantified using cranial indices. Even though the application of indices is associated with numerous statistical and methodological problems, the use of cranial indices to estimate ancestry persists as demonstrated by its inclusion in several recent papers and conference presentations. The purpose of this study was to classify 207 South African crania and compare the results of five standard cranial indices to linear discriminant analysis (LDA). New sectioning points were created to contend with low classification accuracies (40–79%) and possible secular trends. Although the accuracies of the new sectioning points increased (66–87%), the accuracies associated with the stepwise LDA were higher (84%) and could classify the crania into one of the three South African groups. The results of the study demonstrate that indices cannot compete with multivariate techniques and should not be used in forensic anthropological analyses for ancestry estimation.     

Metric Sex Determination of the Human Coxal Bone on a Virtual Sample using Decision Trees

Decision trees provide an alternative to multivariate discriminant analysis, which is still the most commonly used in anthropometric studies. Our study analyzed the metric characterization of a recent virtual sample of 113 coxal bones using decision trees for sex determination. From 17 osteometric type I landmarks, a dataset was built with five classic distances traditionally reported in the literature and six new distances selected using the two-step ratio method. A ten-fold cross-validation was performed, and a decision tree was established on two subsamples (training and test sets). The decision tree established on the training set included three nodes and its application to the test set correctly classified 92% of individuals. This percentage was similar to the data of the literature. The usefulness of decision trees has been demonstrated in numerous fields. They have been already used in sex determination, body mass prediction, and ancestry estimation. This study shows another use of decision trees enabling simple and accurate sex determination.     

What Causes the Local Fiscal Crisis in China: the role of intermediaries

Local governments in China are seriously under-funded relative to their assigned expenditure responsibilities for public services, resulting in the infamous ‘revenue–expenditure gap’. The dominant explanation of local fiscal difficulties given in the literature refers to central government behaviour, namely the excessive centralization of tax revenue, but it does not tally with the large flows of central subsidies to local coffers in more recent years. The alternative account we put forward stresses the working of an intermediary level embedded in the multi-tiered governance structure of a large country, and the interaction between local officials' fiscal behaviour and the revenue–expenditure gap. Employing fine-grained analysis of aggregate statistics and local case data, we argue that broader intergovernmental dynamics and practices of local intermediaries, and not only central government policy, are critical to fiscal health and government performance at the county level.