Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

The Global Political Economy of Right-wing Populism: Deconstructing the Paradox

ABSTRACT

The rise of right-wing populism should be studied as a truly global phenomenon. Domestic and regional contexts are obviously crucial, yet a narrow focus on the domestic realm fails to capture some of the key constituents and paradoxical features of the rise and resilience of right-wing populist projects around the world. Therefore, right-wing populism and the way its contradictions are ‘managed’ ought to be understood within the context of mutual interactions between: 1) an economy-identity nexus and 2) a domestic-foreign policy nexus. A critical review of six controversial aspects of right-wing populism in the global North and global South is used to substantiate this main argument.     

Multiple imaginations of the state: understanding a mobile conflict about justice and accountability from the perspective of Assyrian–Syriac communities

This article examines how the struggle for the recognition of genocide in the twentieth century opens up a political space which, on the one hand, generates historical discourses and imaginaries about the categories of victim and perpetrator and, on the other hand, redefines relationships between the state and its minority citizens. Genocide becomes a ‘critical event’, in the sense of Veena Das, that citizens from different ethnic, social and religious backgrounds use to express their positions concerning the repressive state practices they have been victims of. This expression creates a collective space of solidarity where parties support each other by adopting similar strategies in the struggle for state accountability. At the same time, it opens up a space for negotiation among the state, minority citizens and migrant communities regarding claims to rights and justice.     

Application of Kvaal et al.'s age estimation method to panoramic radiographs from Turkish individuals

Age estimation of living adult individuals can be accomplished with limited methods. Radiographic dental methods based on the pulpal narrowing with secondary dentin formation have been presented. In the present study, Kvaal et al.'s method, one of the radiographic dental age estimation methods, was applied to panoramic radiographs from Turkish individuals. The correlation between chronological and estimated ages was examined and the feasibility of length and width measurements of pulp cavity was evaluated for age estimation. The study population consisted of 123 patients with ages ranging from 14 to 57 years. The measurements of the length and width of six types of teeth on digitized panoramic radiographs were performed, and the ratios between tooth and pulp cavity measurements were calculated. Age was estimated using the linear regression models presented by Kvaal et al. and Paewinsky et al. High differences were observed between chronological and estimated ages. Measurement ratios showed no significant or weak correlation with age. The linear regression models were derived using variables that were significantly correlated with age. The determination coefficients of the models varied from 0.035 to 0.345. In conclusion, a difference of more than 12 years in the chronological and estimated ages derived using regression models in literature was found on panoramic radiographs in Turkish individuals. The length and width of the pulp cavity, measured according to the method of Kvaal et al. using panoramic radiographs, were insufficient to precisely estimate the age of Turkish individuals.     

Civil Society and Deliberative Democracy: Have Voluntary Organisations Faded from National Public Politics?

The political context of civil society in Western Europe has changed dramatically in recent decades. These changing circumstances may produce a decline in the integration of civil society into political life – especially deliberative activities at the national level. This article discusses how serious these alleged threats are to a hitherto vital civil society – that of Sweden. It focuses on fours indicators of organised civil society's contribution to deliberative democracy. First, have efforts to contact politicians, public servants and the media, as well as participation in public debates, decreased? Second, has civil society directed interest away from national arenas and instead concentrated resources in local and/or supranational arenas? Third, is there any evidence of a withdrawal from public activities, such as public debates and media activities in favour of direct contacts with politicians and public servants? Fourth, has civil society become more professionalised in the sense that interest groups are increasingly hiring professional consultants? Two surveys conducted in 1999 and 2005 show that Swedish organised civil society has not faded from national public politics. However, growing public participation is almost exclusively connected to increasing communication via the mass media and direct contact with politicians. Taking part in open public debate has not increased. The national arena has marginally lost some importance. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency to hire professional lobbying consultants. This might improve the quality of civil society's contributions to public deliberation, but a more elitist civil society might also develop, which is uninterested in social dialogue.     

Democracies and Deficits: Prospects for Fiscal Responsibility in Democratic Nations

The financial crisis had significant implications for the fiscal positions of OECD. As nations seek to cope with the economic contraction, budget deficits and debt have risen to near record postwar levels. As the crisis in Europe and other advanced economies has deepened, fiscal consolidation will have to be coupled, and even preceded, by actions to jump‐start crippled economies. Nonetheless, when fiscal consolidation becomes necessary, nations that procrastinate by waiting for a crisis to provide cover for the politically hard choices will pay a steep price indeed both economically and politically. Many in the academic and policy community have raised questions about whether advanced democracies have the political wherewithal to respond to gathering fiscal pressures through early and timely action. Recent fiscal actions in advanced nations suggest that democracies are not doomed to wait for market shocks and crises. Rather, leaders have shown that fiscal sacrifice can be achieved in ways that promote electability. In this article, we discuss the impetus for democratic fiscal actions and the strategies used to gain public support.     

Reproducing ‘hegemony’ thereafter? The long-term political effects of the Gezi protests in Turkey

ABSTRACT

This study examines an understudied aspect of the Gezi protests: its long-term effects on the hegemonic politics of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi, AKP) government. Building on the insights of Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe, and Stuart Hall on hegemonic struggles and populism, it contends that the Gezi protests forced the AKP to reformulate its hegemonic strategies by deconstructing the relation formed contingently between the AKP and democratization, and thus, exposing both the limits of the neoliberal and Islamic/conservative hegemonic politics of the AKP, and the authoritarian tendencies of this government. The article maintains that the AKP, in response, turned to focus its efforts on becoming not hegemonic, but dominant by adopting a full-blown authoritarian populism, which, rather than entailing the closure of all democratic channels, favours retaining some for mobilizing popular support for its increasing authoritarianism. It is demonstrated that this popular support has been secured by the AKP through the articulation of a discourse that ignites fear and anxiety among the conservative religious and conservative nationalist segments, by portraying all opposition as detrimental to their interests and lifestyles. The article concludes that counter-hegemonic movements like Gezi may lead to significant political changes in the long run, even if they are repressed.     

Deaths associated with electric shock injuries in children and adults: A 10-year retrospective examination in Şanlıurfa,Southeast Turkey (2012–2022)

Electric shock injuries (EIs) have high rates of morbidity and mortality in both children and adults. The aim of this study was to examine autopsy cases resulting from EIs and to compare pediatric and adult groups with respect to sociodemographic data, clinical characteristics, location of the incident, electricity entry–exit wound characteristics, current direction, pathological effects of the electric shocks on the body, and cause of death. A total of 8075 autopsies conducted between 2012 and 2022 were retrospectively examined. Şanliurfa is a city in the southeast of Turkey with the highest birth rate in the country. Of 123 cases of death resulting from EIs in Şanliurfa, 58 (47.2%) were children (age < 18 years). In the majority of children (81%), a low-voltage injury resulted from a domestic appliance while the children were playing at home in a rural area. In the vast majority of adults, a high-voltage injury (HVI) resulted from a workplace accident due to working with HVI materials in an area outside the home. The manner of death was accidental in all the electric shock injuries. The electricity entry and exit wounds formed as a result of EIs had similar characteristics in both children and adults, with no significant difference identified. In the province of Şanliurfa, Turkey, which borders Syria and where the main occupation is agricultural activities, there is a need to increase electrical safety precautions within the home, educate parents, and increase electrical safety conditions and worker education in the workplace.     

Children in Out-of-Home Care and Adult Labor-Market Attachment: A Swedish National Register Study

Using longitudinal national register data, we investigated labor-market attachment during the years 1993–1995 in Sweden for persons aged 25–35 years who had been in out-of-home care before the age of 18 in Sweden during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. We consider whether an immigrant background has an additional influence on labor-market attachment. Compared to majority population peers, young persons who had been in foster care had shorter educations. Fewer had a strong labor-market attachment and more were dependent on social assistance. Results from multinomial regression models indicated that having been in foster care during childhood reduced the probability of high attachment to the labor-market and increased the probability of social assistance dependency, even after making adjustments for education, marital status, parenthood, domicile, and birth country. Few signs of additive effects from being both an immigrant and a former foster child are found.