PUBLIC OPINION AND PENAL POLICY

This article discusses the issue of who should run the penal system 7he major assumption of penal administrators has been that the public was in favor of a punishment policy. This research indicates that the public is not as punishment-oriented as expected, though older respondents gave greater approval to restrictive conjugal visitation policies. Age variations may indicate a change in public opinion. The evidence also indicates that the public is more willing to support such programs as conjugal visits and work release than was previously thought. A willingness for more favorable treatment of inmates was found for those who had some contact with inmates.     

FACTORS INFLUENCING GUN CARRYING AMONG YOUNG URBAN MALES OVER THE ADOLESCENT‐YOUNG ADULT LIFE COURSE*

This paper uses data from an ongoing panel study of urban youth to examine the causes and correlates of hidden gun carrying among young urban males. The analysis assesses the changing impact of gang membership, drug sales, and peer gun ownership for protection on gun carrying at nine separate points over the early adolescent to young adult life course. In early adolescence, gang membership is a strong motivation for gun carrying. At somewhat older ages, drug dealing, particularly high drug sales, and illegal peer gun ownership replace gang membership as the primary determinants of illegal gun carrying.     

THE CASCADING EFFECTS OF ADOLESCENT GANG INVOLVEMENT ACROSS THE LIFE COURSE*

The short‐run deleterious effects of gang involvement during adolescence have been well researched. However, surprisingly little empirical attention has been devoted to understanding how gang involvement in adolescence influences life chances and criminal behavior in adulthood. Drawing on the life‐course perspective, this study argues that gang involvement will lead to precocious transitions that, in turn, will have adverse consequences on the fulfillment of adulthood roles and statuses in the economic and family spheres. Moreover, problems fulfilling these conventional roles are hypothesized then to lead to sustained involvement in criminal behavior in adulthood. Using data from a sample of males from the Rochester Youth Development Study, results from structural equation models support the indirect link between gang membership and noncriminal and criminal outcomes in adulthood. Specifically, gang involvement leads to an increase in the number of precocious transitions experienced that result in both economic hardship and family problems in adulthood. These failures in the economic and family realms, in turn, contribute to involvement in street crime and/or arrest in adulthood. Implications for the criminal desistance process are discussed.     

The Expenses Scandal and the Politics of Electoral Reform

The scandal over MPs' expenses that erupted in 2009 was followed by a surge in discussion of electoral reform. A range of reforms to Westminster's existing electoral system are now high on the political agenda. This article examines the extent and the nature of the scandal's impact on the electoral reform debate and draws out comparative implications for the sorts of conditions that can force politicians to accept electoral reforms that they do not want. It finds that the expenses scandal significantly changed debate about some electoral reform topics, but not about others. It proposes three factors likely to increase the impact of scandal in sparking reform: that the scandal is seen as harming ordinary people in their daily lives; that reforms can readily be understood as likely to mitigate the sources of scandal; and that those reforms do not seriously harm politicians' own perceived interests.     

A Framework for Comparison of Intensive and Special Probation Projects

This paper presents a conceptual framework to consider the activities and outcomes of probation projects. It is based on twenty site visits at which probation staffs described how project activities interrelated to produce desired effects. Based upon comparative analysis of these projects, alternative probation strategies are contrasted in six areas: (1) caseload reduction as a means to increase contact time; (2) in-house versus out-house treatment services; (3) helping relationships and tightened surveillance for probationers; (4) ways to enhance community acceptance; (5) usefulness of attempting to change probationer attitudes versus behaviors; and (6) goals of reduced criminal activity during, versus after, probation. The analysis points up underlying assumptions of probation programs and leads to three recommendations. First, contact character is a more superior measure of probation intensity than is caseload reduction. Second, probation projects should prepare conceptual frameworks to better understand the relationship between project activities and desired outcomes, but they should not be subject to elaborate evaluation requirements. Third, multiple measures of criminal activity allow a more balanced appraisal than is possible with single measures such as revocation rate or recidivism.     

Comparing NOMINATE and IDEAL: Points of Difference and Monte Carlo Tests

Empirical models of spatial voting allow us to infer legislators' locations in an abstract policy or ideological space using their roll‐call votes. Over the past 25 years, these models have provided new insights about the U.S. Congress, and legislative behavior more generally. There are now a number of alternative models, estimators, and software packages that researchers can use to recover latent issue or ideological spaces from voting data. These different tools usually produce substantively similar estimates, but important differences also arise. We investigated the sources of observed differences between two leading methods, NOMINATE and IDEAL. Using data from the 1994 to 1997 Supreme Court and the 109th Senate, we determined that while some observed differences in the estimates produced by each model stem from fundamental differences in the models' underlying behavioral assumptions, others arise from arbitrary differences in implementation. Our Monte Carlo experiments revealed that neither model has a clear advantage over the other in the recovery of legislator locations or roll‐call midpoints in either large or small legislatures.     

Teenagers and their Parents: Parental Time and Parenting Style—What are the Issues?

Two recent reports, from the ippr and UNICEF have provided disturbing evidence on the behaviour and well‐being of young people in the UK. The ippr's Report suggests that a significant explanatory factor is the lack of time children spend with parents and other adults. But is mere ‘presence’ the key? The paper briefly reviews the possibilities parents in the UK have to spend time with their children by exploring how much and when they work in relation to parents in other European countries, and goes on to report on evidence from interviews with parents and children, which signal the importance of parenting style. I suggest that time with children is not unimportant, which has implications for Government's decision not to extend the right to request flexible working patterns to parents with older children, but that it is far from being the only factor at stake. The increasing difficulties parents face in negotiating the transition to independence with their teenage children indicate a need for parenting to be on the policy agenda.