GENERAL DETERRENCE THROUGH CIVILIAN GUN OWNERSHIP: AN EVALUATION OF THE QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE*

It has often been argued that civilian firearm ownership acts as a deterrent to crime. Much of the support for this claim is based on incidents that have called attention to the prevalence of privately owned guns. We examined several such incidents and failed to and persuasive evidence of a deterrent effect.     

THE DELINQUENCY OF CHILDREN BORN TO YOUNG MOTHERS: RESULTS FROM THE ROCHESTER YOUTH DEVELOPMENT STUDY*

This paper examines the relationship between a mother's age at first childbirth and the delinquent behavior of her children. Using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (RYDS), an ongoing longitudinal study of adolescent development, we found that children born to mothers who began childbearing at a young age were more prone to general delinquency, violence, and arrest than were children born to mothers who began childbearing when they were older. This “early first‐birth effect” was far larger in white and Hispanic families than in African‐American families. Mediating analyses found that the early first‐birth effect was most attributable to the unstable composition of families in which early childbearing occurs. That said, a substantial portion of the effect remains unmediated.     

SOME ADVANTAGES OF AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO IMPLEMENTATION ANALYSIS: A STUDY OF AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY POLICY

Models of policy implementation have been characterized by a tension between 'bottom' and 'top-down' approaches to public sector management. In recent years, this literature moved into 'third generation' in attempting to unify implementation analysis. One recent approach at consolidating key elements of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' literature has been provided by Soren Winter. This article applies Winter's model to two longitudinal studies of industry programmes in Australia. This analysis suggests that Winter's integrated approach to implementation addresses some of the weaknesses of commonly used rational-comprehensive models such as the Mazmanian and Sabatier framework. However, there are also some weaknesses in Winter's integrated model which implies an agenda for future implementation analysis.     

A LATENT TRAIT APPROACH TO UNIFYING CRIMINAL CAREERS *

We propose a latent trait model that simultaneously accounts for both participation in crime and the frequency of crimes, phenomena that the criminal career model attributes to different causal processes. The criminal career model is predicated on a categorical distinction between active offenders and nonoffenders, but the latent trait model assumes a continuous distribution of propensity to offend. Our specific statistical model relates a relatively stable and general latent propensity to engage in crime to the frequency of criminal behavior. The latent trait model successfully fit both the proportion of offenders (participation) and frequency of offending for several samples and several measures of offending. The model fit both samples of whites and nonwhites and both males and females. This shows that separate causal processes are not necessary to account for group differences in frequency and in participation, which disproves the major evidence in favor of the criminal career model. Finally, the latent trait model yielded evidence that disparate sex differences in rates of participation for different categories of offenses are consistent with a single difference on a latent trait. This demonstrates the latent trait model's potential for parsimoniously unifying knowledge about criminal careers.     

THE CONTEXT OF MARRIAGE AND CRIME: GENDER,THE PROPENSITY TO MARRY,AND OFFENDING IN EARLY ADULTHOOD*

Marriage is central to theoretical debates over stability and change in criminal offending over the life course. Yet, unlike other social ties such as employment, marriage is distinct in that it cannot be randomly assigned in survey research to more definitively assess causal effects of marriage on offending. As a result, key questions remain as to whether different individual propensities toward marriage shape its salience as a deterrent institution. Building on these issues, the current research has three objectives. First, we use a propensity score matching approach to estimate causal effects of marriage on crime in early adulthood. Second, we assess sex differences in the effects of marriage on offending. Although both marriage and offending are highly gendered phenomena, prior work typically focuses on males. Third, we examine whether one's propensity to marry conditions the deterrent capacity of marriage. Results show that marriage suppresses offending for males, even when accounting for their likelihood to marry. Furthermore, males who are least likely to marry seem to benefit most from this institution. The influence of marriage on crime is less robust for females, where marriage reduces crime only for those with moderate propensities to marry. We discuss these findings in the context of recent debates concerning gender, criminal offending, and the life course.     

THE TIMING OF COURT PROCESSING: TOWARDS LINKING THEORY AND METHOD*

The time required for a case to traverse the criminal justice system is of central importance to participants. Time translates into issues of efficiency and is likely to be closely related to the cost of a case. The role of time has, however, largely been ignored in studies of court processing, though it has a history in the sociology of law. This research uses event-history data from California to model the effects of offense, offender, and processing factors on the time it takes to move a case from entrance into the system at arrest to disposition by guilty plea or trial. A model that mirrors the dynamics of case processing is used to assess the dependencies of inertial forces on case and defendant characteristics This focus on the processing time to each of the potential outcomes allows for the linking of theories and methods of processing.