U.S. SOCIAL STRUCTURE, CRIME, AND IMPRISONMENT

This research develops a structural model of crime and imprisonment in the United States from data on 49 states which was evaluated through a series of path and regression analyses. The major findings revealed that crime rates were effectively predicted by social structural characteristics, primarily urban population characteristics, and in turn that prison admissions were predicted by crime rates. Prison releases were not as strongly influenced by structural characteristics as crime rates and prison admissions; however, prison admissions were found to significantly affect releases. Variations in social structural determinants of violent and property crimes were also observed. The implication of these results ore discussed and suggestions for future research are presented.     

RETHINKING THE “NORM” OF OFFENDER GENERALITY: INVESTIGATING SPECIALIZATION IN THE SHORT‐TERM

The life‐course approach to criminal career research has devoted a good deal of attention to the generality or specialization of offending behavior. Typically, extant research demonstrates versatility on the part of offenders, yet such findings could be attributable, at least in part, to time and measurement aggregation bias. This work uses a temporally disaggregated and individualized measure of diversity in offending to determine whether the previous findings of generality hold up to shifts in methodology. Using data from a sample of serious felons, results indicated that the magnitude of specialization is greater than in prior studies. Regression results indicated that certain demographic and local life‐circumstance variables are related to the extent of diversity. Theoretical and methodological implications are identified and discussed.     

TESTING MOFFITT'S ACCOUNT OF ADOLESCENCE‐LIMITED DELINQUENCY*

Much of the research testing Moffitt's taxonomy of antisocial behavior has concentrated on life‐course‐persistent as opposed to adolescence‐limited offending. For Moffitt, adolescence‐limited delinquency occurs near puberty as a function of factors endemic to the peer social context of adolescence, including the realization that adolescents are physically mature enough to engage in adult‐like behaviors, but are forbidden to engage in such acts because of their biological age. Using data from the Youth‐In‐Transition survey, we find that adolescence‐limited delinquency is characterized by involvement in rebellious but not aggressive delinquency. Further, rebellious delinquency is accounted for by the interaction between early maturity and the autonomy aspects of peer activities.     

AN EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK FOR STUDYING DESISTANCE AS A PROCESS*

Recent reviews of the desistance literature have advocated studying desistance as a process, yet current empirical methods continue to measure desistance as a discrete state. In this paper, we propose a framework for empirical research that recognizes desistance as a developmental process. This approach focuses on changes in the offending rate rather than on offending itself. We describe a statistical model to implement this approach and provide an empirical example. We conclude with several suggestions for future research endeavors that arise from our conceptualization of desistance.     

A METHODOLOGICAL ADDITION TO THE CROSS‐NATIONAL EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ON SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND HOMICIDE: A FIRST TEST OF THE POVERTY‐HOMICIDE THESIS*

Dozens of cross‐national studies of homicide have been published in the last three decades. Although nearly all these studies test for an association between inequality and homicide, no studies test for a poverty—homicide association. This absence is disconcerting given that poverty is one of the most consistent predictors of area homicide rates in the abundant empirical literature on social structure and homicide in the United States. Using a sample that coincides closely with similar recent studies, applying a proxy for poverty (infant mortality) that is commonly employed in noncriminological cross‐national research, and controlling for several common covariates (including inequality), this study provides the first test of the poverty—homicide hypothesis at the cross‐national level. The results reveal a positive and significant association between a nation's level of poverty and its homicide rate. The findings also suggest that we may need to reassess the strong conclusions about an inequality—homicide association drawn from prior studies, as this relationship disappears when poverty is included in the model.     

If Seals Were Ugly,Nobody Would Give a Damn: Propaganda,Nationalism, and Political Marketing in the Canadian Seal Hunt

The provocative debate over the Canadian seal hunt features emotional imagery, selective use of facts, a media relations battle, and political lobbying. This paper explores different forms of propaganda employed in the sealing controversy by animal rights groups and by the governments of Canada and of Newfoundland. It argues that Newfoundland nationalism is a central variable. This perspective can help gauge the effects of propaganda and explain the government's defense of a controversial policy. It concludes that propaganda, nationalism, and political marketing are independent categories that bear strong similarities.     

Civil Service Reforms in Italy: The Importance of External Endorsement and Administrative Leadership

The traditional portrait of civil servants in Italy, as well as in most other countries, has always been one of not particularly efficient employees yet have the benefit of a secure job and can look forward to a comfortable retirement package. In order to change this image, public management reforms have largely focused on civil servants since the 1990s. However, many academics and practitioners claim some inertia in the reform implementation. In this article we aim to identify the determinants of such inertia in Italy's civil service reforms and we analyze data from 885 Italian municipalities expected to adopt the pay system reform for senior officials, as required by national legislature. Our findings stress the importance of accrued legitimacy, external public endorsement, and the influence of key internal stakeholders (like administrative leaders) as major vehicles to promote or slow down the implementation of administrative reforms in the public sector.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF ARREST FOR COLLEGE ENROLLMENT: AN ANALYSIS OF LONG‐TERM EFFECTS AND MEDIATING MECHANISMS*

This study draws on labeling theory and education research on the steps to college enrollment to examine 1) whether and for how long arrest reduces the likelihood that high‐school graduates will enroll in postsecondary education and 2) whether any observed relationships are mediated by key steps in the college enrollment process. With 17 years of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) and propensity score matching, we derived matched samples of arrested and nonarrested but equivalent youth (N = 1,761) and conducted logistic regression and survival analyses among the matched samples to examine the short‐ and long‐term postsecondary consequences of arrest. The results revealed that arrest reduced the odds of 4‐year college enrollment directly after high school, as well as that high‐school grade point average and advanced coursework accounted for 58 percent of this relationship. The results also revealed that arrest had an enduring impact on 4‐year college attendance that extended into and beyond emerging adulthood. Two‐year college prospects were largely unaffected by arrest. These findings imply that being arrested during high school represents a negative turning point in youths’ educational trajectory that is, in part, a result of having a less competitive college application. Implications are discussed.