TESTING A RATIONAL CHOICE MODEL OF AIRLINE HIJACKINGS*

Using data that combines information from the Federal Aviation Administration, the RAND Corporation and a newly developed database on global terrorist activity, we are able to examine trends in 1,101 attempted aerial hijackings that occurred around the world from 1931 to 2003. We have especially complete information for 828 hijackings that occurred before 1986. Using a rational choice theoretical framework, we use continuous‐time survival analysis to estimate the impact of several major counterhijacking interventions on the hazard of differently motivated hijacking attempts and logistic regression analysis to model the predictors of successful hijackings. Some of these interventions use certainty‐based strategies of target hardening to reduce the perceived likelihood of success. Others focus on raising the perceived costs of hijacking by increasing the severity of punishment. We also assess which strategies were most effective in deterring hijackers whose major purpose was related to terrorism. We found support for the conclusion that new hijacking attempts were less likely to be undertaken when the certainty of apprehension was increased through metal detectors and law enforcement at passenger checkpoints. We also found that fewer hijackers attempted to divert airliners to Cuba once that country made it a crime to hijack flights. Our results support the contagion view that hijacking rates significantly increase after a series of hijackings closely clustered in time—but only when these attempts were successful. Finally, we found that the policy interventions examined here significantly decreased the likelihood of nonterrorist but not that of terrorist hijackings.     

NETWORKING LITERATURE ABOUT DETERMINANTS OF NETWORK EFFECTIVENESS

Since the early 1990s, public networks have been implemented in many countries to solve ‘wicked’ public problems, addressing such issues as health, social care, local development and education. While considerable research has been carried out into public networks, both managers and scholars are left with some doubts about network effectiveness. In fact literature on this topic has been highly fragmented, comprising a plurality of definitions, multiple theories, multiple methods and multiple explanations. This paper aims to review and classify previous theoretical and evidence‐based studies on network effectiveness and its determinants. Our aim is to rearrange existing literature into a unitary framework in order to shed light on both hitherto unfilled gaps and established theoretical cornerstones.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF TITTLE'S CONTROL BALANCE THEORY*

Classic statements of control theory propose that individuals who are controlled or bonded will be more likely to be deterred from deviance, while those who are not controlled or bonded will be more likely to turn to deviance. In a recent restatement of control theory, Tittle (1995) offers an alternative viewpoint. Though he agrees that a lack of control (a control deficit) can lead to repressive forms of deviance (predation, defiance, and submission), Tittle also asserts that overcontrol (a control surplus) may lead to autonomous types of deviance (exploitation, plunder, and decadence). Terming it control balance theory, Tittle argues that the amount of control to which one is subject relative to the amount of control one can exercise (i.e., the control ratio) affects not only the probability that one will engage in a deviant act, but also the specific form or type of deviance. In this article, we focus on one of the key hypotheses of control balance theory: an individual's control balance ratio predicts deviant behavior. We examine this hypothesis using two vignettes designed to investigate the repressive acts of predation and defiance. Segmented, nonlinear regression results yield mixed evidence in that both control surpluses and control deficits significantly predict predation and defiance. The theoretical implications of our results for control balance theory are discussed.     

TOWARD A NATIONAL ESTIMATE OF POLICE USE OF NONLETHAL FORCE*

Research Summary Despite frequent calls for national data on police use of force, the literature is dominated by unrepresentative samples from a small number of primarily urban jurisdictions, inconsistent definitions of force, and differing universes for the computation of rates. Among 36 publications that report on the amount of nonlethal force used by the police, rates vary from 0.1% to 31.8%. To improve our ability to estimate the amount of nonlethal force in the United States, we employ data from two sources: the Police‐Public Contact Survey (PPCS) and the Survey of Inmates in Local Jails (SILJ). Using comparable measures from these surveys, we estimate that the police use or threaten to use force in 1.7% of all contacts and in 20.0% of all arrests. The PPCS accounts for 87% of the total force incidents derived from both surveys. Males, youths, and racial minorities report greater rates of police use of force, but multivariate models highlight the role of potentially provoking behaviors on the likelihood and severity of force. Policy Implications Improved estimates from the combined PPCS‐SILJ samples support the proposition that police use force infrequently and at the lower end of the severity scale. Reported amounts of force vary based on respondent race, sex, and age, but greater variation in police use of force is explained by suspect behavior. The combined PPCS‐SILJ sample provides a more representative basis for estimating the rate and correlates of nonlethal force. State and local estimates from less representative samples can be interpreted in light of these findings. National estimates could be improved by devoting sufficient resources to support the collection of agency records of both lethal and nonlethal force.     

INVESTIGATING THE STABILITY OF CO‐OFFENDING AND CO‐OFFENDERS AMONG A SAMPLE OF YOUTHFUL OFFENDERS*

Scholars have long argued that delinquency is a group phenomenon. Even so, minimal research exists on the nature, structure, and process of co‐offending. This investigation focuses on a particular void, namely the stability of 1) co‐offending and 2) co‐offender selection over time, for which divergent theoretical expectations currently exist that bear on issues central to general and developmental/life‐course theories of crime. By relying on individual‐level, longitudinal data for a sample of juvenile offenders from Philadelphia, we find that distinct trajectories of co‐offending exist over the course of the juvenile criminal career. This inquiry also develops an individualized measure of co‐offender stability, which reveals that delinquents generally tend not to “reuse” co‐offenders, although frequent offenders show a greater propensity to do so. The discussion considers the theoretical and policy implications of these findings as well as provides some avenues for future research.     

ESTIMATING A DOSE‐RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LENGTH OF STAY AND FUTURE RECIDIVISM IN SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS*

The effect of sanctions on subsequent criminal activity is of central theoretical importance in criminology. A key question for juvenile justice policy is the degree to which serious juvenile offenders respond to sanctions and/or treatment administered by the juvenile court. The policy question germane to this debate is finding the level of confinement within the juvenile justice system that maximizes the public safety and therapeutic benefits of institutional confinement. Unfortunately, research on this issue has been limited with regard to serious juvenile offenders. We use longitudinal data from a large sample of serious juvenile offenders from two large cities to 1) estimate a causal treatment effect of institutional placement, as opposed to probation, on future rate of rearrest and 2) investigate the existence of a marginal effect (i.e., benefit) for longer length of stay once the institutional placement decision had been made. We accomplish the latter by determining a dose‐response relationship between the length of stay and future rates of rearrest and self‐reported offending. The results suggest that an overall null effect of placement exists on future rates of rearrest or self‐reported offending for serious juvenile offenders. We also find that, for the group placed out of the community, it is apparent that little or no marginal benefit exists for longer lengths of stay. Theoretical, empirical, and policy issues are outlined.