When and why politicians do not keep their welfare promises

Although the welfare state is a core theme in most national elections in Western democracies, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the causes of welfare state pledge‐breaking. This article presents an argument that explains when governments do not do what they promised and tests it using an innovative research design with data covering four decades and 18 countries. The argument is able to account for several important but, until now, undescribed phenomena. First, nowadays, governments, on average, deliver less welfare than they promised, whereas in the 1970s they used to deliver more than promised. Second, the pledge‐breaking of governments has become highly dependent on the parliamentary opposition's position on the welfare issue. When the opposition favours fiscal and economic responsibility, governments’ tendency to deliver less welfare than promised is amplified. In contrast, when the opposition emphasises the positive benefits of generous welfare, such as equality and social justice, governments become more prone to keep their promises. Third, this conditional effect of the opposition is a recent occurrence that only emerged after the number of potential swing voters increased as class‐based voting gradually declined from the 1970s onwards.     

Flatliners: Ideology and rational learning in the adoption of the flat tax

What factors explain the wave of adoption of the flat tax in Eastern Europe? It is argued in this article that, once the first few successes were underway, governments with liberal outlooks toward taxation adopted the reform through a process of rational learning: an often radically new government will tend to adopt the policy based on successful implementation of its neighbours. The issue of policy diffusion is approached by explicitly modeling the different mechanisms that might underlie the process. Little evidence is found for pure ‘bandwagoning’ in the adoption of the flat tax – the presence of other market‐minded reforms do not predict adoption of the flat tax, and contagion measures do not capture the dynamics of the adoption of the reform. Instead, rational learning, where economically right‐wing governments evaluated the success of the reform (as measured by their ability to attract foreign investment) in the medium term, plays the largest role. Rational emulation in a shorter time period contributes to the probability of adoption as well, as does a change to an economically liberal ideology.     

Labour market regulation and subjective well-being in low-income countries

A growing literature suggests social democratic policies, as exemplified by the welfare state and active labour market policies, promote higher levels of life satisfaction compared to the neoliberal agenda of austerity, smaller government and more ‘flexible’ labour markets. In this article, this inquiry is extended to low-income countries. A theoretical argument is developed for why labour market regulation (LMR) (rather than social welfare spending or the general size of government) is a more appropriate locus of attention outside of the industrial democracies. The relationship between LMR and several measures of well-being is then empirically evaluated, finding robust evidence that people live more satisfying lives in countries that more stringently regulate their labour market. Moreover, it is found that positive benefits of LMR on well-being are the largest among individuals with lower incomes. The implications for public policy and the study of human well-being are discussed.     

Can the online crowd match real expert judgments? How task complexity and coder location affect the validity of crowd-coded data

Crowd-coding is a novel technique that allows for fast, affordable and reproducible online categorisation of large numbers of statements. It combines judgements by multiple, paid, non-expert coders to avoid miscoding(s). It has been argued that crowd-coding could replace expert judgements, using the coding of political texts as an example in which both strategies produce similar results. Since crowd-coding yields the potential to extend the replication standard to data production and to ‘scale’ coding schemes based on a modest number of carefully devised test questions and answers, it is important that its possibilities and limitations are better understood. While previous results for low complexity coding tasks are encouraging, this study assesses whether and under what conditions simple and complex coding tasks can be outsourced to the crowd without sacrificing content validity in return for scalability. The simple task is to decide whether a party statement counts as positive reference to a concept – in this case: equality. The complex task is to distinguish between five concepts of equality. To account for the crowd-coder's contextual knowledge, the IP restrictions are varied. The basis for comparisons is 1,404 party statements, coded by experts and the crowd (resulting in 30,000 online judgements). Comparisons of the expert-crowd match at the level of statements and party manifestos show that the results are substantively similar even for the complex task, suggesting that complex category schemes can be scaled via crowd-coding. The match is only slightly higher when IP restrictions are used as an approximation of coder expertise.     

CAN PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT FOSTER SOCIAL EQUITY? STAKEHOLDER POWER,PROTECTIVE INSTITUTIONS,AND MINORITY REPRESENTATION

Performance management has been criticized for harming or, at best, ignoring social equity outcomes. While there is evidence suggesting that performance management fosters an emphasis on efficiency and effectiveness at the expense of other public values, we are still in search of a theory linking performance management to social equity. The article takes a first step towards the development of such a theory and proposes the importance of contingency factors. It argues that managerial performance information use will benefit disadvantaged groups in the presence of powerful stakeholders, protective institutions, and minority representation in government. Using data on school districts in Texas, the article finds support for the first two contingency factors but not the third one. Performance information use by superintendents increases test scores of disadvantaged students if these students make up a sizeable, powerful group, and if superintendents put emphasis on complying with the No Child Left Behind Act.     

EXPERTISE AND POLICY‐MAKING: LEGAL PROFESSIONALS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT

Professional influence in policy‐making is generally believed to rest on professionals successfully laying claim to access to expertise – knowledge, understanding or experience – not available to others, above all politicians. On the basis of a 2005 survey of nearly 800 lawyers serving in local authorities in England and Wales, this article explores the relationship between specialization and political influence. Lawyers who shape policy use conventional routes for political influence, establish contacts with political officeholders, tend to identify less with the profession at large and are less likely to see themselves as specialists in any field of law. This means that the relationship between expertise and political power is complex and that the notion that professionals use their expertise to shape policy should be treated with some caution.     

Party actors and party change: Does factional dominance matter?

Abstract. Other works have asked whether parties matter; this article asks whether parties' dominant factions matter. Special focus is placed on whether change in dominant faction or coalition within the party tends to produce other significant party change, and under what circumstances. Three specific hypotheses are developed and tested, one involving motivation for change and the other two involving 'resources' which are necessary to make dramatic change possible. Empirical analysis rests upon original data covering seven changes in dominant faction and several dimensions of party change within five parties in the United Kingdom and Germany for the period 1950 to 1990. The authors conclude that not all of the hypothesized factors have equal impact on degree of party change, with ability of the newly dominant faction to control its coalition being primary.     

Kosovo Defines the West

Kosovo is a proxy war with the Holocaust. As such, this war and its outcome will do much to define the West in the next century That it is a war in Europe, for Europe, sets it apart from all the other tragedies from Rwanda to Kashmir. Our collage of comment on this subject ranges from the secretary general of NATO to the leader of the Kosovars in Albania.