THE CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT: A REFERENCE GROUP EFFECT AND ITS FUNCTIONAL FORM

The 1970s witnessed a renewal of interest in deterrence theory. Examining the functional form of the relationship between certainty of punishment and crime rate, Tittle and Rowe (1974) and Brown (1978) report a threshold effect: Below a certainty level of about .30 (the tipping point), they observed no relationship and above that level they observed a strong negative relationship. Unfortunately, few large cities achieve that level for most crimes. This interesting finding has rarely been followed up. Drawing on reference group theory, we extend this research by disaggregating the analysis by crime and race. While racial majorities may not experience certainty levels above the tipping point, some research suggests that racial minorities do experience such levels. Supporting this, our analysis shows a reference group effect for racial majorities and minorities and a curvilinear relationship, reflecting tipping and ceiling points, between certainty of punishment and crime rates for only racial minorities.