THE EFFECT OF LONGITUDINAL ARREST PATTERNS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBBERY TRENDS AT THE NEIGHBORHOOD LEVEL *

Although the current resurgence of ecological deterrence research has addressed many of the methodological and theoretical problems of earlier studies, the question concerning the appropriate level of aggregation for such models has not been resolved. In this paper, we argue that there is strong evidence in the criminological literature that the neighborhood is the most meaningful level of aggregation for such studies. However, in an analysis of robbery incidents and arrests over 100 weeks in five Oklahoma City neighborhoods we did not find any significant support for the deterrent effect of arrests on subsequent illegal behavior. We propose that the lack of such a relationship reflects periods of short-term equilibrium in the local community, during which the levels of crime and arrests are relatively stabilized.     

ASSESSING MESSNER AND ROSENFELD'S INSTITUTIONAL ANOMIE THEORY: A PARTIAL TEST*

In Crime and the American Dream, Messner and Rosenfeld contend that culturally and structurally produced pressures to secure monetary rewards, coupled with weak controls from noneconomic social institutions, promote high levels of instrumental crime. Empirically, they suggest that the effects of economic conditions on profit-related crime depend on the strength of noneconomic institutions. This investigation evaluates this proposition with cross-sectional data for U.S. states. In brief; the nonlinear models show considerable, indirect support for Messner and Rosenfeld's institutional anomie theory, revealing that the effects of poverty on property crime depend on levels of structural indicators of the capacity of noneconomic institutions to ameliorate the criminogenic impact of economic deprivation. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Seats That May Not Matter: Testing for Racial Polarization in U.S. City Councils

Abstract: Critics of the Voting Rights Act claim that electoral structures used by city councils lead to racially polarized legislatures in which African American members are consistently outvoted by white majorities. Using council votes from six cities, this study shows that the critics' claim is exaggerated. In only one city were African American council members generally less likely to be on the winning side of votes because of their race. Polarization is more of a concern for particular issues: members with large black constituencies were less likely to be on the winning side of votes on housing or police affairs in four cities.     

Democratisation, External Exposure and State Food Distribution in The Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic shares the island of Hispaniola with a 'failed' state, requires regular financial assistance from international funds and remains exposed to external economic pressures. State food distribution in the country, however, adheres to traditional statist policies and institutions that disappeared elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean during the 1980s and 1990s. Relevant literature arguably does not anticipate this outcome. This article proposes that political institutions associated with Dominican democratisation since the late 1970s, particularly strong presidentialism, a stable, non-ideological party system and high voter turnout at elections, provide incentives for a status quo, clientelistic policy in this strategic area of social policy.     

Non-Nationalist Politics in a Bi-National Consociation: The Case of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

Through a case study of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, this article examines the contention that consociational power-sharing, in its determination to include dominant and conflicting identity groups, exalts these identities and excludes others including gender, class and other ethnicities and nationalities. The article describes and assesses the Alliance Party’s arguments that the power-sharing arrangements in Northern Ireland are philosophically objectionable, practically ineffective, and politically detrimental to parties which, like Alliance, are designated as “others.” The article finds that the party’s critique of consociationalism as implemented in Northern Ireland is overstated and that the party has been able to play a number of pivotal roles in the new politics.