CAUSALITY,ECONOMIC CONDITIONS,AND BURGLARY*

This study examines the extent to which the symmetry-asymmetry distinction and offense aggregation bias obfuscate the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Specifically, we use ARIMA techniques to assess the impact of incremental and abrupt changes in oil prices on counts of total, commercial, and residential burglaries in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Taken together, the bivariate and interrupted time series analyses indicate that the causal impact of oil prices on burglary is asymmetrical and varies across the two subcategories of breaking and entering.     

Devolution's Unfinished Business

Devolution was a response to a decline in legitimacy in the territorial politics of the UK. To differing extents and in different ways, there was a legitimacy gap in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This has largely been restored in the non-English parts of the UK but has created new problems of legitimacy in England. The West Lothian Question and territorial finance are the unfinished business of devolution. Using Beetham's classic work on The Legitimation of Power, this article argues that the situation today in England resembles that which existed before devolution in the non-English parts of the UK: there is nothing illegal in the current constitutional arrangements; but there are constitutional anomalies and inconsistencies, which may lead to a withdrawal of consent.