Gentrification and Displacement: Modeling a Complex Urban Process

ABSTRACT

To shed some light on longstanding questions around gentrification, in this research we model environmental gentrification and gentrification-related displacement of residents. We do this through the development of an agent-based model of a simple urban region, considering different urban contexts and policy approaches to polluted facilities and the relationship of these policies with subsequent gentrification and displacement. We find that gentrification-related displacement is most likely, and most impactful, in urban regions characterized by high levels of density and low levels of residential segregation preferences. Displacement is far less prevalent in low-density regions, particularly those with high segregation preferences. We discuss the potential for different policy implications in these different urban contexts.     

The War on Drugs in Mexico: a failed state?

This article focuses on the continued attractiveness of ‘failed state’ strategic thinking that stretches across policy-making and academic circles and links it to the issue of the War on Drugs in Mexico. It does so in order to challenge, if not reject, caricatured representations of ‘failed states’. Moreover, it offers an alternative understanding of the War on Drugs and issues of state crisis in Mexico. Rather than assume that state power is rooted within clear and immobile boundaries, it is more fruitful to rethink transformations in state space that cannot be isolated from underlying historical patterns of development and political economy. A political economy approach to state space is therefore better able to draw attention to the twin geopolitical processes shaping the War on Drugs in Mexico: (1) the geographic restructuring of the trade in cocaine and (2) the coeval onset and consolidation of neoliberalism.     

The Asian Development Bank as a Global Risk Regulator in Myanmar

The Asian Development Bank (adb) is engaged in development projects throughout the Greater Mekong Subregion, although for most of the past two decades it has boycotted Myanmar (Burma) because of donor government sanctions. Despite being criticised for its neoliberal focus and its lack of transparency and accountability, the adb’s operations compare favourably to those of the Myanmar government and many transnational corporations constructing and financing projects there. This article engages with the concept of risk, which increasingly frames how development in fragile states like Myanmar is understood, to critically analyse the adb’s nascent re-engagement in Myanmar according to the risks this poses for five constituencies: the adb itself; donor states; the Myanmar government and military; private capital; and marginalised communities. While deeper engagement in Myanmar poses different risks for each group, critical analysis suggests that the adb must increase the genuine participation of civil society actors in its activities to address the most significant risks of all, those facing marginalised communities.     

Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.     

Cultural Effects and Savings: Evidence from Immigrants to the United Arab Emirates

This study attempts to investigate the effects of cultural origin on the saving behaviour of immigrants in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Using household survey data covering 3206 households, savings rates are found to be remarkably different across households from different countries/regions. Immigrants from developing countries appear to be uniform in terms of average household size, age, education and occupation. However, immigrants from Pakistan and India are found to have higher average savings rates than those from Arab countries, although they have relatively lower incomes. This suggests strong cultural effects on savings, a proposition that is generally supported by the econometric findings of this research.     

Dissecting the Attitudes of Political Science Students Towards Democracy and the 2004 Elections in Indonesia

Students’ attitudes towards Indonesia's transition from an authoritarian era to democracy varied from strong support for the democratic transition to nostalgia for the authoritarian era's strong leadership and economic prosperity. A sample of 317 students from three Indonesian universities was asked to rate the importance of political, economic, legal and social democratic principles. In addition to concerns about corruption, economic decline and security, students differed significantly centring on the importance of legitimate elections, representation, tolerance, accountability, human rights and gender equality. The majority of students were pessimistic about the elections; paradoxically some students optimistic about the general elections rated democratic principles the least important. After discussing the implications, political attitudes about democracy and elections were related to cognitive consistency and dissonance theory.     

Democracy as an equilibrium

Observation shows that while democracy is fragile in poor countries, it is impregnable in developed ones. To explain this pattern, I develop a model in which political parties propose redistributions of incomes, observe the result of an election, and decide whether to comply with the outcome or to launch a struggle for dictatorship. Democracy prevails in developed societies because too much is at stake in turning against it. More income can be redistributed in developed than in poor countries without threatening democracy. Limits on redistribution arise endogenously, so that constitutions are not necessary for democracy to endure. A democratic culture characterizes the equilibrium.     

Pollution,Politics, and Preferences for Environmental Spending in the States

While state environmental and natural resource spending is designed to address actual environmental problems, the budget process is also inherently political. Thus, in the following article we ask a simple question: to what extent does state environmental and natural resource spending respond to the scope of environmental problems in a state, versus the demands of the political process? Unlike the bulk of previous research, we consider both aggregate spending and program‐specific spending. We also consider how the severity of environmental problems and the political environment may interact to determine spending. The findings show that politics, specifically the strength of the environmental movement, is a more important determinant of state environmental spending than pollution severity. However, for some program areas, it appears that strong environmental groups make state budgets more responsive to the severity of environmental problems.     

ELECTRONIC COMMERCE — CLICK-WRAP AGREEMENTS: THE ENFORCEABILITY OF CLICK-WRAP AGREEMENTS

This article examines the practical issues surrounding the use and enforceability of click-wrap agreements and presents preliminary findings of basic research to determine consumer awareness, understanding and attitudes to such agreements.