Designing long-term policy: rethinking transition management

Long-term policy is enjoying something of a come-back in connection with sustainable development. The current revival tries to avoid the pitfalls of an earlier generation of positivistic long-range planning and control approaches. Instead, this new generation of policy design emphasises reflexive governance concepts. These aim at inducing and navigating complex processes of socio-technical change by means of deliberation, probing and learning. A practical expression of this move that is attracting growing international attention amongst researchers and practitioners is the policy of ‘Transition Management’ (TM) in the Netherlands. This article takes stock of TM implementation experience to date and discusses the critical issues it raises for long-term policy design. The article provides a framework and synthesis for this Special Issue, which comprises articles that address a range of those issues in more depth. We highlight three critical issues: the politics of societal learning, contextual embedding of policy design and dynamics of the design process itself. This leads us to propose a view on policy design as a contested process of social innovation. Our conclusion considers implications for continued work on designing transition management in practice as well as the reflexive capacities of democratic politics.     

The social–economic impact of shale gas extraction: a global perspective

This article explores the global social–economic impact of shale gas extraction, comparing the differing social and economic impacts shale gas extraction may have on communities in developed and developing countries. It argues that the benefits of fracking are more likely to be enjoyed by communities in highly and very highly developed countries rather than by those in countries with low or medium levels of development . Additionally, it shows that the potential risks and drawbacks of shale gas and its extraction are more likely to be experienced by communities in these latter countries than by those in highly or very highly developed countries. However, it also demonstrates that even communities in developed countries are vulnerable to environmental and health risks associated with shale gas extraction.     

Policy feedback and pathways: when change leads to endurance and continuity to change

Policy Sciences - The policy feedback literature was initially concerned with explaining how positive feedback could lead to self-reinforcing policy trajectories. More recently, policy scholars...     

Aid and development by design: local solutions to local problems

This article makes a case for a reconceptualisation of aid and development programme design. Specifically, it questions the role of the international “development expert” in the design and implementation process. We argue that by employing “design thinking” as a guiding principle, the way in which aid programmes are envisaged and delivered can be radically overhauled, resulting in dramatically improved outcomes for the users of aid. We argue that practical improvements in delivery are achievable through locally rooted, “user-driven” development solutions that originate from the beneficiaries themselves. Design thinking as applied here goes significantly further than other programme design and implementation methodologies that champion locally owned, needs-driven assistance. Furthermore, we make a case for this approach addressing wider problems within the sector, namely the perception, in some quarters, that aid is intrinsically “neo-imperialist” in design and ideologically driven.     

Epidemiology of completed suicides in Singapore for 2001 and 2002

This study provides an analysis of 640 completed suicide cases in Singapore for the years 2001 and 2002, compared to previous years and in relation to demographic and socioeconomic factors, as well as to the characteristics of a subgroup of suicide victims with prior psychiatric illness. There was little change in the suicide pattern over the 2 years studied compared to previous years. The sex ratio was constant at 1.5. Population-adjusted ratios were 1 for Chinese, 0.5 for Malays, and >1 for both Indians and other ethnic groups. Falling from heights ranked first in terms of method adopted for both years. A disproportionately higher number of suicides were recorded for the 25-34 and the > or =75-year-old age groups. A total of 47 (17.2%) in 2001 and 74 (20.2%) in 2002 of the cases had a history of prior psychiatric illness, with psychotic disorders being the most common diagnostic category. There was also a statistically significant correlation between unemployment and incidence rates. Although the overall rate of elderly suicides had gone down since the 1990s, prevention strategy should focus on the elderly as this rate is still about 3-4 times the national average.     

Book reviews

Of Camel Kings and Other Things: Rural Rebels against Modernity in Late Imperial China, by Roxann Prazniak. Lanham, MD and Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999. Pp.xiii + 305. £50/US$69 (hardback); £18.95/US$24.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 8476 9006 7 and 9007 5

Images of the Medieval Peasant, by Paul Freedman. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999. Pp.xix + 459. £37.50/US$65 (hardback); £13.95/US$22.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 8047 3372 4 and 3373 2

’Ir aigen libertet’: Waldburg, Habsburg und der bäuerliche Widerstandan der oberen Donau 1590–1790, by Martin Zürn (Oberschwaben ‐ Geschichte und Kultur 2). Tubingen: Bibliotheca Academica, 1998. Pp.814. DM78 (hardback). ISBN 3 928471 15 5

Economics of Marketable Surplus Supply: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis for China by Ping Zong and John Davis. Aldershot: Ashgate, 1998. Pp.xiv + 206. £42 (hardback). ISBN 1 84014 335 5

Cadres and Kin: Making a Socialist Village in West China, 1921–1991 by Gregory A. Ruff. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1998. Pp.xix + 249. £30AJS$49.50 (hardback). ISBN 08047 3377 5     

Effects of prefrontal cortical stimulation on aggressive and antisocial behavior: A double-blind,stratified, randomized,sham-controlled,parallel-group trial

Journal of Experimental Criminology - This study examines the influence of high-definition transcranial direct current stimulation (HD-tDCS) of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) on aggressive behavior...     

Decentralization and Fiscal Discipline in Sub-national Governments: Evidence from the Swiss Federal System

This article analyses the relationship between decentralizationand the extent of fiscal discipline in the Swiss cantons between1984 and 2000. From a theoretical point of view, decentralizationand federalism can be associated with both an expansive anda dampening effect on government debt. On the one hand, decentralizedstructures have been argued to lead to a reduction of debt dueto inherent competition between the member states and the multitudeof veto positions which restrict public intervention. On theother hand, decentralization has been claimed to contributeto an increase of public debt as it involves expensive functionaland organizational duplications as well as cost-intensive, oftendebt-financed, compromise solutions between a large number ofactors that operate in an uncoordinated and contradictory way.Our empirical results show that in periods of prosperous economicdevelopment, the architecture of state structure has no impacton debt. However, the degree of decentralization influencesdebt in economically poor times: In phases of economic recession,administratively decentralized cantons implement a more economicalbudgetary policy than centralized Swiss member states.     

An insight into forensic document examiner expertise for discriminating between forged and disguised signatures

It has previously been shown that forensic document examiners (FDEs) have expertise in providing opinions about whether questioned signatures are genuine or simulated. This study extends the exploration of FDE expertise by evaluating the performance of eight FDEs and 12 control subjects at identifying signatures as either forgeries or the disguised writing of a specimen provider. Subject eye movements and response times were recorded with a Tobii 1750 eye tracker during the signature evaluations. Using a penalty scoring system, FDEs performed significantly better than control subjects (t = 2.465, p = 0.024), with one FDE able to correctly call 13 of the 16 test stimuli (and three inconclusive calls). An analysis of eye movement search patterns by the subjects indicated that a very similar search strategy was employed by both groups, suggesting that visual inspection of signatures is mediated by a bottom up search strategy. However, FDEs spent greater than 50% longer to make a decision than the control group. The findings are suggestive that for some stimuli FDEs can discriminate between forgeries and disguises, and that this ability is due to a careful inspection and consideration of multiple features within a signature.