Rehumanizing Birth and Death in America

THESIS: Despite spending more on medical care than any other country in the world, the United States still boasts some of the worst patient outcomes of any developed nation. This disparity is especially true of how Americans give birth and die.  These natural human transitions have become catastrophically expensive and leave patients and their families traumatized from unnecessary interventions. This article examines the costs and outcomes associated with the medicalization of birth and death and argues that alternatives exist that improve patient outcomes while lowering costs. Access to these alternatives will require changing current regulatory and reimbursement structures and providing trained support staff to help families navigate beginning- and end-of life decisions.     

Using Data Combination of Fundamental Variable-Based Forecasts and Poll-Based Forecasts to Predict the 2013 German Election

In this paper I present an election forecasting approach to predict the vote share of the governing coalition in German national elections. The model is composed of two independent prediction components: the first is based on poll data, the second on fundamental variables. Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages when used in isolation. The basic idea is to use both and find a better informed overall forecast. The predictions are combined using a shrinkage estimator, where the predictions are weighted by their respective prediction uncertainty. The uncertainty of the poll prediction is modelled time-dependent. The result is a dynamic model allowing for predictions longer before the elections highly relying on fundamental variables. With the elections coming closer predictions rely more and more on the polling data.     

Doing Nothing is Sometimes Worse: Comparing Avoidant versus Approach Coping Strategies with Peer Victimization and Their Association to Depression and Suicide Ideation

ABSTRACT

Peer victimization is a major stressor adolescents often face in the school environment, and has been linked to depression and suicidal risk. This study analyzed the associations between three behavioral coping strategies (avoidance, seeking social support from adults/peers, and retaliation) and depression and suicidal ideation. Participants included 4,254 victimized students who were part of the Saving and Empowering Young Lives in Europe (SEYLE) study that compared three school-based prevention interventions and collected information on health risk behaviors in adolescents from 11 European countries. Results showed behavioral avoidance to be associated with an increase in levels of depression, as compared to the other coping strategies (adult social support, peer social support, retaliation). Seeking social support from adults was associated with lower depression and suicidal ideation rates. A more than 25% increase in suicidal ideation was associated with behavioral avoidance, compared to seeking social support from adults. By contrast, retaliation to peer victimization was not found to be associated with increased depression or suicidal ideation. The findings support the Coping Deficit model and may suggest that abstaining by doing nothing when victimized can be associated with certain adverse emotional outcomes.