A Comparative Test of Clinical Judgment Versus Actuarial Prediction of Future Violence

This study tested how graduate level psychology graduate students (n = 20) using the Adapted Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Adapted VRAG) would do relative to practicing psychologists/psychiatrists (n = 16) using clinical judgment when predicting violence in 10 narratives from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment study (Monahan et al., The MacArthur violence risk assessment study. . Retrieved 10 Oct 2005). Results indicated that the practicing psychologists/psychiatrists made significantly more correct predictions than the master’s level students. The professional group demonstrated sensitivity levels of 77.7% and specificity of 96.3%. For the use of the adapted VRAG method by the graduate student group, specificity levels were modest at 54.0%. Sensitivity levels, however, were lower than earlier demonstrated levels at 58.0%. These findings are at variance with earlier reports comparing clinical and actuarial methods. The results may reflect the short amount of time the master’s level students were trained using the Adapted VRAG as well as the small number of participants in this study. Additional research comparing other professions is recommended, as well as examining if experience in the forensics field would affect one’s ability to predict violence.     

Bridging the Gap Between the Worlds of Ideas and Action

The World War II experience of public service created a generation of scholars who devoted themselves to policy-relevant research during the early Cold War. The Vietnam War led to a split between the two groups, and scholars and policymakers today inhabit two different worlds. Fortunately, it appears as though the relationship between the world of ideas and the world of action is entering a new phase. Both the academy and the nation would be better off if scholars were more involved in topics of interest to policymakers. However, building a closer relationship between these two worlds faces challenges.     

Toward a Balanced Approach: Defining Police Roles in Responding to Domestic Violence

Responding to domestic violence poses unique challenges to law enforcement officers. Prior research has focused on issues such as officer safety and arrest policies but overlooked a critical component—the officers’ perception of their role in responding to domestic violence incidents. This study explores how police officers define their roles through the use of focus group interviews with detectives assigned to a domestic violence unit. Findings include the identification of three role perspectives. Recommendations for a more balanced approach of these role perspectives in responding to domestic violence crimes through the use of more effective training, supervision, and evaluation are proposed.     

A mobility strategy for improving opportunity

Abstract

Postwar changes in the metropolitan settlement structure have profoundly altered the geography of opportunity in the older cities of the Northeast and Midwest. Poverty is concentrated in once‐central cities, while employment continues to deconcentrate to the suburbs. In the face of these changes, antipoverty policy has become a geographic exercise of moving people and resources from certain places to other places.

The three main strategies for confronting inner‐city poverty are dispersal, development, and mobility. These strategies are discussed and compared, with particular emphasis on the mobility approach. The article argues that the mobility approach—which connects poor inner‐city residents to suburban employment opportunities without changing the location of households or firms—is the most promising near‐term strategy for combating urban poverty.     

The Non-Random Nature of Terrorism: An Exploration of Where and How Global Trends of Terrorism Have Developed Over 40 Years

We examined the geographic concentration and persistence of terrorism using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD logs all terrorist incidents worldwide using open-source media, and, for 1970–2013, includes over 125,000 incidents from over 200 countries and territories. We examined regional and country-level data; different terrorism forms, severity levels, and timeframes (entire period, five-year periods, and annual); and multiple definitions of “elevated” terrorism. The findings reveal that terrorism is concentrated geographically and temporally. Most countries experience peace or very low levels of terrorism; only a few experience substantial outbreaks; very few experience prolonged terrorism; and even fewer, prolonged severe terrorism.     

Policy analysis: The undisciplined discipline

Policy analysis is an amorphous, multi-disciplinary, adademic pursuit in search of a professional focus. This discussion surveys the parameters of this pursuit and outlines the basic ingredients of a professional perspective. Argument is made for a multi-faceted, yet integrative approach which appreciates both the rational and trans-rational elements of public policy and which is anchored in a mixture of technical expertise and public regardedness.