Predictors of sexually coercive behavior in a nationally representative sample of adolescent males

Data from male participants in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health are used to examine childhood predictors of late adolescent and early adulthood sexually coercive behavior and adolescent mediators of these relationships. A path analysis shows that experiencing sexual abuse as a child has a direct effect on perpetrating subsequent coercion that is partially mediated by early sexual initiation. Involvement in delinquent activities in adolescence was the only additional significant predictor of sexually coercive behavior and completely mediated the relationship between physical abuse in childhood and later sexual coercion. Of note, more than half of men reporting sexually aggressive acts had no history of childhood victimization, so pathways to sexually coercive behavior for this group remain unidentified. In addition to the universal prevention approaches currently in use in the field, these findings suggest that targeted prevention programs need to be formulated for youth with histories of childhood sexual or physical abuse.     

Confounding Conventional Wisdom: Political not Principled Differences in the Transatlantic Regulatory Relationship

The transatlantic complaints over hormone-treated beef and genetically modified organisms before the World Trade Organisation (WTO) seem to confirm two separate but related conventional wisdoms about the transatlantic economic relationship: that it is highly conflictual and that many of the conflicts are rooted in profoundly different approaches to regulation. This article argues that neither of the two conventional wisdoms is accurate. Rather, it contends that they are products of two, compounding analytical shortcomings: one methodological, one empirical. The methodological shortcoming takes the form of an implicit selection bias. While WTO complaints are high profile they are rare and extreme examples; it is, therefore, unsound to generalise from them to the regulatory relationship as a whole. The empirical shortcoming has to do with neither the beef hormones nor the GMO dispute demonstrating what it is purported to. The article thus serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of relying on obvious cases and the need to question whether evidence really does support a prevailing popular narrative.     

Real Solutions for Fake News? Measuring the Effectiveness of General Warnings and Fact-Check Tags in Reducing Belief in False Stories on Social Media

Political Behavior - Social media has increasingly enabled “fake news” to circulate widely, most notably during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. These intentionally false...     

The Third and Fatal Shock: How Pandemic Killed the Millennial Paradigm

This millennium began with widespread acceptance of a governing paradigm emphasizing small government, free markets, and open borders. Three crises—the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic—forced American policy makers to diverge from this paradigm. At the time, these divergences were described as temporary departures from normalcy. In retrospect, it would be more accurate to regard the millennial paradigm itself as the abnormality: a model of governance designed for rare moments of calm. In the last two decades, a different paradigm has emerged. American government has become the ultimate bearer of societal risks. Repeatedly, it has adopted extraordinary measures to protect public safety and the economy. However, the American state lacks the capacity to anticipate and manage these massive risks competently. New capabilities are required, along with a new mentality about governing. Domestic politics will complicate the task of building these capabilities.     

Animal ethics and the political

Some of the most important contributions to animal ethics over the past decade or so have come from political, as opposed to moral, philosophers. As such, some have argued that there been a ‘political turn’ in the field. If there has been such a turn, it needs to be shown that there is something which unites these contributions, and which sets them apart from previous work. We find that some of the features which have been claimed to be shared commitments of the turn are contested by key theorists working in the field. We also find that the originality of the turn can be exaggerated, with many of their ideas found in more traditional animal ethics. Nonetheless, we identify one unifying and distinctive feature of these contributions: the focus on justice; and specifically, the exploration of how political institutions, structures and processes might be transformed so as to secure justice for both human and nonhuman animals.     

Quantifying the Qualitative: Eliciting Expert Input to Develop the Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool

Abstract

This article discusses the participatory creation of the Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool (MPAT), a survey-based thematic indicator developed in China and India. The core of the article focuses on the use of expert elicitation to inform the construction of MPAT’s household and village surveys, the cardinalisation of survey responses, and the weighting scheme design. This is followed by a discussion of the potential pitfalls of expertise in development, the decision not to aggregate MPAT into an index, creating locally relevant poverty lines, and ideas for future research. The article closes with a summary of lessons learned.