Recurrent default or policy-optimal taxation

This paper investigates the syndrome of “this time is different” with respect to Reinhart and Rogoff’s (This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2011) interpretation of their extensive, historical data on financial default, and with particular regard to public debt in a closed-economy. Recurrent and over-generous promises to credulous investors of an ex ante, policy-optimal return amounts to an extra policy instrument in boosting the demand for public debt. In a numerical simulation of a version of the Diamond (Am Econ Rev 55:1126–1150, 1965) model, we find that the incentive for the policy-maker to pursue this strategy is trivial if taxes can be set at a policy-optimal level, but possibly over-riding if they cannot. Thus, the main result lines up with the empirical conclusion of Reinhart et al. (Debt intolerance. Debt intolerance, 2003) that “debt intolerant countries have weak fiscal structures”. The subsidiary result of the model is that defaulting countries will also have higher shares of public expenditure. Thus the model also predicts Wagner’s Law to the extent that fiscal structure is correlated with economic development.     

Dental Age Estimation: Pattern Recognition of Root Canal Widths of Mandibular Molars. A Novel Mandibular Maturity Marker at the 18‐Year Threshold

The final stage of third molar development is used to assign a subject to above the 18‐year threshold. Some subjects exhibiting this final stage are less than 18 years. Radiographs from 1000 females and 1000 males age 16.00–25.99 years were examined. Each half‐year age band comprised 50 females and 50 males. Three categories of root canal widths (RCW) of the LL6, LL7, and LL8 [FDI 36, 37, and 38] were defined. Reproducibility was achieved by re‐assessing the same subjects 12 months apart. For females, the minimum value for RCW‐A was 16.33 years, RCW‐B 17.23 years, and RCW‐C 18.45 years. For males, the minimum values were RCW‐A 17.16 years, RCW‐B 18.29 years, and RCW‐C 18.16 years. The presence of RCW‐C in a female, and the presence of RCW‐B or RCW‐C in a male is compelling evidence that the subject is above the 18‐year threshold.     

Offender personality disorder pathway: the impact of case consultation and formulation with probation staff

The latest government policies for personality disordered offenders emphasise the importance of a formulation-based approach to rehabilitation and pathway planning. However, research into forensic case formulation is limited. This paper examines the impact of consultation and formulation, on probation staff working with personality disordered offenders. Staff rated their knowledge, confidence, motivation, and understanding (of offenders), and satisfaction with management plans at three stages: pre-consultation, post-consultation and after receiving a written formulation. The analyses revealed that ratings on all variables examined increased after attending a consultation meeting, with no additional increase in scores following receipt of the formulation letter. The findings provide evidence that consultation has a range of benefits for probation staff, and offer support for the current model of joint-agency working. Further research is needed to clarify the benefits of providing written formulations after consultations, and to explore what features of a formulation are most useful to probation staff.     

Postface: fragmentation,failing trust and enduring tensions over what counts as climate finance

The Paris Agreement commits nations in Article 2(1) to “Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.” However there is an absence of internationally agreed accounting rules that would permit overall assessments of progress to this goal and any meaningful comparisons of performance between countries. This is true also for the quantitative Copenhagen/Cancún promise by developed nations to jointly mobilize US$100 billion by 2020. Our goal is to provoke discussion about the depth of the problems this lack of a functional definition and accounting system have created and perpetuated. We do so by describing the fragmented system of national reporting of climate finance and how the OECD’s Rio Marker system is serving neither contributors nor recipients. More than a trust issue between developed and developing countries, we argue that the lack of modalities to account for climate finance also considerably impedes the effective functioning of the bottom-up approach that now prevails under the UNFCCC. The deadline to propose "modalities of accounting climate finance" by 2018 is a crucial window in which to address this chronic issue in international climate policy.     

Baker & McKenzie's annual review of developments in EU law relating to IP,IT & telecommunications

This is a summary of the Baker & McKenzie columns on developments in EU law relating to IP, IT and telecommunications. This summarises the principal developments in 2009 that are considered important for practitioners, students and academics in a wide range of information technology, e-commerce, telecommunications and intellectual property areas and which were reported on in this column in 2009. It seeks also to update any further development which may have taken place in relation to the specific topics since originally reported. It cannot be exhaustive but intends to address the important points. This is a hard copy reference guide, but links to outside websites are included where possible. No responsibility is assumed for the accuracy of information contained in these links.     

The validity of criminal justice contacts reported by inmates: A comparison of self-reported data with official prison records

Purpose

Existing research on criminal justice contact data has not adequately examined the quality of self-reported timing data, has produced discrepant findings on validity as it relates to demographics, and is limited in its assessment of data quality using a life event calendar method. The study described in this article assessed the validity of self-reported contacts with the criminal justice system gathered using a life event calendar with a sample of incarcerated men.

Methods

Self-reports of criminal justice contacts (i.e., arrests, jail terms, prison terms) were obtained from over 700 incarcerated men using a structured life-event calendar method. Similarly, data were collected from the inmate's official records for the same events. These reports served as an external criterion for the self-reports.

Results

Results indicated a significant degree of reporting errors for arrests using the life event calendar approach with better reporting for jail and prison terms. Additionally, individuals with the highest number of previous arrests had the greatest recall difficulties.

Conclusions

Recall of arrest presents a difficult recall task. The life event calendar method should either be modified to improve recall of specific events for criminological samples or used instead to capture information on more general and extended events.     

Contested meanings,myths and hyperimages of the apocalypse: the Bakhtin Circle and the politicisation of catastrophism

This article considers the depoliticising effects of current images and myths of apocalyptic visions, such that the world faces a catastrophe whether this emerges from environmental degradation, mass migration, terrorism, or global financial collapse. In our digital media age, apocalyptic images are now also captured through the raw footage of actual disaster events. In the article we call such footage, “hyperimages”. The power of the hyperimage is not, as Baudrillard once said, that reality is “just like the movies”, rather, hyperimages demonstrate that the image captured and shown to others is all too real because they depict actual everyday disasters. Importantly, such is the power of hyperimages that they are often employed by the political right to help them construct a hegemonic project aiming to win state power and to influence state policies. Drawing on the Bakhtin Circle, however, we show that hyperimages are also mediated and circulated through a multitude of social groups and voices in society, which contain seeds of radical heteroglossic alternatives to that of the right. Following this, the article then examines how responses to apocalyptic hyperimages can be politicised in a progressive direction.     

The medical licensing examination debate

National licensing examinations are typically large‐scale examinations taken early in a career or near the point of graduation, and, importantly, success is required to subsequently be able to practice. They are becoming increasingly popular as a method of quality assurance in the medical workforce, but debate about their contribution to patient safety and the improvement of healthcare outcomes continues. A systematic review of the national licensing examination literature demonstrates that there is disagreement between assessment experts about the strengths and challenges of licensing examinations. This is characterized by a trans‐Atlantic divide between the dominance of psychometric reliability assurance in North America and the wider interpretations of validity, to include consequences, in Europe. We conclude that the debate might benefit from refocusing to what a national licensing examination should assess: to achieve a balance between assessing a breadth of skills and the capacity for such skills in practice, and focusing less on reproducibility.     

Confounding Conventional Wisdom: Political not Principled Differences in the Transatlantic Regulatory Relationship

The transatlantic complaints over hormone-treated beef and genetically modified organisms before the World Trade Organisation (WTO) seem to confirm two separate but related conventional wisdoms about the transatlantic economic relationship: that it is highly conflictual and that many of the conflicts are rooted in profoundly different approaches to regulation. This article argues that neither of the two conventional wisdoms is accurate. Rather, it contends that they are products of two, compounding analytical shortcomings: one methodological, one empirical. The methodological shortcoming takes the form of an implicit selection bias. While WTO complaints are high profile they are rare and extreme examples; it is, therefore, unsound to generalise from them to the regulatory relationship as a whole. The empirical shortcoming has to do with neither the beef hormones nor the GMO dispute demonstrating what it is purported to. The article thus serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of relying on obvious cases and the need to question whether evidence really does support a prevailing popular narrative.     

‘Bad’ Boys and ‘Sad’ Girls? Examining Internalizing and Externalizing Effects on Parasuicides Among Youth

Suicide and parasuicides (i.e. suicidal ideation and suicidal attempt) have long been recognized as serious social problems, especially among youth. A series of logistic regression models were developed incorporating various internalizing and externalizing risk factors experienced by young people with the goal of predicting parasuicides among Canadian youth. The main objective of the research is to determine whether or not there are significant sex differences between these internalizing and externalizing influences on suicidal behavior. Data were used from the National Longitudinal Study of Children and Youth—Waves 3 through 6, for a total sample of 2,499 15-year olds (48.9% male). Results show that both suicidal ideation and attempt are more frequent for girls compared to boys. Contrary to expectations, externalizing problems had a greater impact on girls and internalizing problems had a marginally greater impact on boys. This casts doubt on the notion that “bad boys” and “sad girls” are at greater risk for suicidal behavior. These results are discussed in light of their substantive importance, policy implications, and suggestions for future research.