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391.
Alex Mintz 《国际研究展望》2005,6(1):94-98
In recent years, more than 40 articles and chapters have utilized Poliheuristic Theory to analyze critical decisions made by foreign leaders and U.S. presidents. In this paper, I introduce the Poliheuristic Procedure—a series of steps that one can use to explain or predict decisions by world leaders. Subsequent articles in this Symposium present examples of poliheuristic analyses of decisions made by Presidents Carter, Clinton, Gorbachev, Mussaref and Saddam Hussein. These case studies provide strong support for Poliheuristic Theory: leaders use a two-stage process in making decisions: they first use simple heuristics to eliminate alternatives based on the avoid-major-political-loss principle, and then use more analytic calculations in selecting an alternative from a subset of surviving alternatives. 相似文献
392.
Alex Pravda 《欧亚研究》1982,34(2):167-199
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Purpose
The criminal career paradigm is a major research focus in criminology, and the current state-of-the-art review explicates research published between 2000 and 2011.Materials and methods
Keyword searches of Science Direct, Scopus, and the National Criminal Justice Research Service produced 364 studies on criminal careers.Results
A narrative meta-review summarizes essential findings on the parameters of the criminal career, investigates emerging theoretical and disciplinary extensions that utilize the criminal career framework, and identifies 16 pressing research gaps.Conclusions
Although the study of criminal careers has been a dominant research area in criminology, its presence is likely to expand as research becomes more interdisciplinary and a longitudinal, biosocial perspective takes hold in the criminological sciences. 相似文献396.
Official development assistance currently totals around US$130 billion per year, an order of magnitude greater than international climate finance. To safeguard development progress and secure the long-term effectiveness of these investments, projects must be designed to be resilient to climate change. This article reviews 250 projects for three countries from two development organisations and finds that between 2% and 30% of these may require action now to “future-proof” investments and policies. Both organisations show improvements in the recognition of climate change in projects, but many projects are still not future-proof. 相似文献
397.
John L. Worrall Nicole Els Alex R. Piquero Michael TenEyck 《American Journal of Criminal Justice》2014,39(2):341-357
Deterrence researchers have abandoned a one-size-fits-all approach and identified a wide range of individual characteristics (e.g., low self-control, emotional arousal) associated with the decision to offend. Comparatively less attention has been given to the moderating effects of purely situational factors on intentions to break the law. Drawing on social control and rational choice literatures, we utilized a vignette-based survey and asked a sample of young adults to report on their likelihood of driving drunk under conditions of high and low informal social control. We then explored the effects of certainty and severity of punishment on offending likelihood across both conditions. Among deterrable offenders, we found that the relationship between severity and compliance manifested only in the presence of high informal social control. Certainty was significantly and inversely associated with offending likelihood in both high and low informal social control conditions—among both deterrables and the full sample. Implications for deterrence theory are discussed. 相似文献
398.
Barbara Hogenboom Alex E. Fernández Jilberto 《Journal of Public Affairs (14723891)》2014,14(3-4):283-295
In the 1980s and 1990s, the confluence of the third wave of democracy, neo-liberal economic reforms and economic crises in Latin America, produced several significant consequences for the region's underdeveloped interest group systems. By using an international political economy approach, this article examines these developments and particularly how neo-liberal policies affected the political fortunes of big business plus the broader political fall-out from neo-liberal policies. In essence, we make the argument that, for three reasons, the consequences of the confluence of these three developments for Latin America's emerging interest group system are mixed in terms of a more pluralist, open-access system. First, the influence of big business persists and in many ways has been enhanced as the economically and politically privileged position of large private companies since the 1980s has given way to economic concentration, transnationalization and the rise of multilatinas (Latin American multinational companies, which primarily operate across the region). Second, political opportunities have been opened for a range of interests, many from the left, that likely would not otherwise have emerged so early in the region. Third, the election of leaders opposed to neo-liberal policies may transform Latin America's political economy and aid in the democratization of its interest group system. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
399.
Alex Bryne 《Diplomacy & Statecraft》2013,24(4):565-589
ABSTRACTIn 1923, the United States celebrated the centennial anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine. Overlooked by historians, the centennial served as more than an isolated moment of memorialisation; this analysis investigates the ways in which it shaped and reflected domestic perceptions of the place of the United States in the world during the early 1920s. The various celebratory events that took place across the nation re-enforced the discordant nature of United States national security by emphasising and exacerbating the doctrine’s disputed meaning. By providing a forum in which it could be scrutinised, the centennial emphasised the policy’s fractured meaning and demonstrated that both regional hegemony in the Western Hemisphere and Pan-Americanism were perceived as core values of United States national security that emanated from the doctrine’s enunciation in 1823. 相似文献
400.