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371.
Craig S. Galbraith Sanford B. Ehrlich Alex F. DeNoble 《The Journal of Technology Transfer》2006,31(6):673-684
This study investigates a set of precursor factors that appear related to future technology success, and whether or not expert
evaluators can a priori provide useful information during the technology review process. Sixty-nine highly advanced post 9–11 technologies are tracked
over time. Based upon the results of this study, we conclude that a reasonably good predictive model can be constructed from
organizational and technology factors, such as firm size, stage of development, and strategic partnerships. The results also
indicate that the incremental value of expert reviewers and technology evaluators to predict future technology success is
relatively small. Reviewers that provided the greatest predicative power, however, had current scientific responsibilities.
These results raise important issues regarding the capability of developing predictive models of technology success.
相似文献
372.
373.
Angola has enjoyed mostly peace since April 2002 and is preparing for legislative elections in September 2008—the first since 1992. This paper charts the fortunes of the former rebel movement, UNITA, the Union for the Total Independence of Angola, assesses how successfully it has transformed itself from a rebel movement into the leading party of the democratic opposition and what its future prospects are. Many of the problems that UNITA faces are similar to other political opposition parties in Africa and there are few signs that UNITA is any longer disadvantaged by its violent past. The biggest threat to UNITA is that it loses badly in the September 2008 legislative elections and makes these ex-rebels irrelevant to the majority of Angolans. 相似文献
374.
375.
This article bridges the gap between two theories that attempt to explain the gender - crime relationship. Power-control theory posits that power relationships of parents in the public sphere are reflected in their relationship at home. Different kinds of households are thus distinguished by degrees of patriarchy. Differential socialization generates gender differences in crime across households. Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory purports that low self-control explains all crime across all groups, yet little research explored the link between low self-control and crime both among, as well as between, genders. Linking low self-control and power-control theories, this study examined the relationships gender, power-control, self-control, and crime. Results indicated that while low self-control explained both male and female criminality, the effect of parenting on the development of low self-control was complex; males and females differentially responded to parents' control. The gender-based processes that impact the development of self-control should further be explored. 相似文献
376.
Alex Martin 《冲突、安全与发展》2007,7(4):551-577
The proliferation of threats to security, which emerge in states going through major reform processes, demands a functional intelligence architecture. Accurate intelligence is essential in identifying risks to the wider reform process. Western intelligence agencies have viewed intelligence services in reforming states as tactical opportunities and sources of intelligence rather than as targets for reform in the context of a wider reform agenda. Sensitivities inherent in intelligence gathering in states with a recent history of repressive government make the relationship between the intelligence services and civil society crucial if the intelligence services are to be effective and to play a positive role in the transition process. The practice of countering terrorism has altered the nature of intelligence gathering in ways that make accountability and public legitimacy more central to the effectiveness of intelligence services than the ‘traditional’ threats did. Western models of intelligence oversight and accountability are inadequate in states without developed traditions of democratic governance and weaknesses in wider political culture means that these models are not effective in lending intelligence services popular legitimacy. Alternative models for structuring the relationship between the intelligence services, parliament, the executive and the public must therefore be identified. 相似文献
377.
Alex de Waal 《Development in Practice》1991,1(2):77-83
Famine is clearly and undeniably a terrible wrong, and famine is preventable. The occurrence of famine is an indictment of the ethics of the country in which it has occurred. Despite this, those claiming to represent ethical concerns in general and human rights in particular have had little impact on either understanding famine or dealing with it. This paper is an attempt to develop an agenda whereby human rights concerns can be brought to bear on the problem of famine. 相似文献
378.
William Alex Pridemore Mitchell B. Chamlin Adam Trahan 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2008,24(4):397-396
There is substantial evidence that catastrophic events, including terrorist attacks, lead to increased levels of post-traumatic
stress, especially in communities in close proximity to the incident. Some scholars also argue that these events disrupt social
organization. On the other hand, many contend that these incidents produce social cohesion as community members coalesce to
help each other in time of need. These ideas have resulted in competing hypotheses in the literature. The first is that violence
will increase in the wake of catastrophic events due to heightened levels of individual stress and community disorganization.
The second is that violence will decline after these events because of increased social cohesion, especially in the face of
an outside threat. In order to test these competing hypotheses, we employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
techniques to model the impact of the Oklahoma City bombing and the September 11 attacks on monthly homicide counts at the
local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided evidence of an effect but did not use rigorous time-series
techniques, we found no support for either of the competing hypotheses. We conclude that while such catastrophic events may
have an effect on individual and collective efficacy well beyond the immediate impact of the incidents, these effects are
not strong enough to influence homicide rates.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
379.
380.
Alex Mintz 《国际研究展望》2005,6(1):94-98
In recent years, more than 40 articles and chapters have utilized Poliheuristic Theory to analyze critical decisions made by foreign leaders and U.S. presidents. In this paper, I introduce the Poliheuristic Procedure—a series of steps that one can use to explain or predict decisions by world leaders. Subsequent articles in this Symposium present examples of poliheuristic analyses of decisions made by Presidents Carter, Clinton, Gorbachev, Mussaref and Saddam Hussein. These case studies provide strong support for Poliheuristic Theory: leaders use a two-stage process in making decisions: they first use simple heuristics to eliminate alternatives based on the avoid-major-political-loss principle, and then use more analytic calculations in selecting an alternative from a subset of surviving alternatives. 相似文献