Sometimes Ignorance is Bliss: Investigating Citizen Perceptions of the Certainty and Severity of Punishment

Deterrence lies at the heart of the criminal justice system and policy. There is a lack of information on citizen??s perceptions regarding a critical element of the deterrence process as it manifests through the communication of sanction threats. This study uses data from over 400 adults to examine their knowledge regarding the probability of detection and the average punishments for DUI, and also assesses the contribution of demographic and theoretical variables in predicting perceptions of detection probabilities and punishment estimates. Results show that persons over-estimate the likelihood of detection and provide higher estimates for average sentence lengths, but very few variables predict deterrence perceptions. An investigation of the resetting effect shows that persons tend to lower the estimated likelihood of punishment after experiencing a punishment. Deterrence may work better if researchers and policy officials understand what influences these perceptions and how they may be modified.     

Inconsistency in 9 mm bullets measured with non-destructive X-ray computed tomography

Fundamental to any ballistic armour standard is the reference projectile that is to be defeated. Typically, for certification, consistency of bullets is assumed. Therefore, practical variations in bullet jacket dimensions can have far reaching consequences. Traditionally, internal dimensions could only be analysed by cutting bullets which rules out any subsequent ballistic assessment. Therefore, the use of a non-destructive X-ray computed tomography (CT) method is explored in this paper. A set of 10 bullets (9 mm DM11) was taken for analysing both intra and inter bullet jacket thickness variation. CT measurements of jacket thickness were validated with high resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM) images. An image based analysis methodology has been developed to extract the jacket thickness map and the centre of gravity. Thickness variations of the order of 200 μm were found commonly across all the bullets along the length and an angular variation of up to 100 μm was found in a few bullets. Jacket thickness and centre of gravity were also calculated for the same bullets after impact and the variations between the pre- and post-impacted bullets were compared, by establishing a common physical reference. The results show that the proposed CT scanning approach and subsequent image analysis method can bring out the statistical variations in bullet geometry pre- and post impact effectively.     

Legal, Individual, and Environmental Predictors of Court Disposition in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

Historically, the juvenile court has been expected to consider each youth's distinct rehabilitative needs in the dispositional decision-making process, rather than focusing on legal factors alone. This study examines the extent to which demographic, psychological, contextual, and legal factors, independently predict dispositional outcomes (i.e., probation vs. confinement) within two juvenile court jurisdictions (Philadelphia, Phoenix). The sample consists of 1,355 14- to 18-year-old male and female juvenile offenders adjudicated of a serious criminal offense. Results suggest that legal factors have the strongest influence on disposition in both jurisdictions. For example, a higher number of prior court referrals is associated with an increased likelihood of secure confinement in both jurisdictions. Juveniles adjudicated of violent offenses are more likely to receive secure confinement in Phoenix, but are more likely to be placed on probation in Philadelphia. Race is unrelated to dispositional outcome, but, males are consistently more likely than females to be placed in secure confinement. Importantly, individual factors (e.g., developmental maturity) generally were not powerful independent predictors of disposition. Finally, an examination of the predictors of juvenile versus adult court transfer in Phoenix indicated that males, older juveniles, and those with a violent adjudicated charge were more likely to be transferred to adult court, while juveniles scoring high on responsibility as well as those juveniles with an alcohol dependence diagnosis were more likely to be retained in juvenile court.     

Does Incapacitation Reduce Crime?

Questions and answers about incapacitation abound in all discussions about criminal justice policy. They are among the most pressing of all research issues, yet estimates about the incapacitation effect on crime vary considerably, and most are based on very old and incomplete estimates of the longitudinal pattern of criminal careers. This paper provides an overview of the incapacitation issue, highlights information on recent estimates of criminal careers that are useful to the incapacitation model, and outlines an ambitious research agenda for continued and expanded work on incapacitation and crime that centers on developing better estimates of the characteristics of criminal careers and their relevance to policy choices.

Share the Wealth: Redistribution Can Increase Economic Efficiency

People frequently face uncertain income and the threat of loss can inhibit economic investments. Government redistribution can insure citizens against economic losses, but its effect on people’s investment decisions depends on how they react to redistributive rules. We apply methods from experimental economics to study how a redistributive institution affects people’s investment decisions. Experiment 1 tests whether redistribution can increase economic efficiency when people face risk problems—investment opportunities that are profitable on average but could result in a loss. In a between-subject design, participants decide whether to make a risky investment either individually or under an institution that redistributes earnings equally among four group members. We find greater investment and profits when participants are required to share their earnings. In Experiment 2, we examine free-riding by comparing an institution that allows non-investors to exploit investors to an assortment institution that matches investors with investors. We find that vulnerability to free-riding suppresses investment, whereas an assortment mechanism increases investment by preventing free-riding and thereby facilitating risk pooling.     

Ophthalmologic Concerns in Abusive Head Trauma

When Abusive Head Trauma (AHT) is suspected in a child, a dilated eye examination by an ophthalmologist is an essential part of the medical workup, as the presence and pattern of retinal hemorrhages can have a high positive predictive rate for abusive head injury. This article proposes to review the clinical presentation, pathophysiology, natural history, sequelae, and differential diagnosis of retinal hemorrhages and other ocular lesions associated with AHT.     

Transaction costs can encourage Coasean bargaining

When there are three parties, instability problems brought about by the emptiness of the core of the corresponding cooperative game may cause the Coase Theorem to fail, even when other more direct impediments to bargaining are low. We show that the standard Coasean bargaining game involving three parties is strategically equivalent to an asymmetric three-player majority game. Hence, when there are three parties, instability problems will cause the Coase Theorem to fail if and only if the core of the corresponding three-player majority game is empty. We use this equivalence result to derive all instances in which the Coase Theorem will and will not hold with three parties, and show that a priori, such instability problems are likely to be rare—the Coase Theorem will actually hold most (over 80 %) of the time. We also demonstrate that it is always possible to find a set of transaction costs which, when introduced into a frictionless bargaining situation, will cause an empty core to become non-empty. In other words, transaction costs can mitigate instability problems: situations exist in which the presence of transaction costs will cause the Coase Theorem to hold when, in the absence of those direct transaction costs, it would fail to hold. When there are three parties, rather than hindering agreements, the existence of direct transaction costs can sometimes—but not always—reduce instability and encourage Coasean bargaining.