Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models

Curtis S. Signorino 303 Harkness Hall, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627 e-mail: curt.signorino{at}rochester.edu Robert W. Walker Department of Political Science, Center for Applied Statistics, Washington University in Saint Louis, Campus Box 1063, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130 e-mail: rww{at}wustl.edu e-mail: mbas{at}gov.harvard.edu (corresponding author) We present a simple method for estimating regressions basedon recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which canbe implemented in most standard statistical packages, involvessequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manneranalogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the techniqueproduces consistent parameter estimates and show how to calculateconsistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicateLeblang's (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial marketsand government responses to these attacks. Authors' note: Our thanks to Kevin Clarke, John Londregan, JeffRitter, Ahmer Tarar, and Kuzey Yilmaz for helpful discussionsconcerning this paper. A previous version was presented at the2002 Political Methodology Summer Meeting.     

Political transitions and commissions of inquiry: the politicisation of accountability in Ghana

Abstract

What role does a commission of inquiry (COI) play in delivering accountability? In theory, when the public delegates power to political leaders to formulate and implement policies, they seek political accountability in return. Using Ghana as a case study, this study examines how the operations of COIs may deliver accountability. Principal–agent theories of accountability and African conceptions of legitimacy are incomplete on their own and need to be integrated into an explanation of political accountability that takes into consideration political transitions and the role of COIs in delivering a minimalist form of accountability. This study argues that a COI is an instrument of regime legitimatisation. The demands by citizens for political accountability in Ghana correlate with political transitions. Accompanying each power alternation was a different model of political accountability. To understand the predominant applications of accountability, we emphasise the politicisation of accountability.     

The Mediating Role of Ethical Climate in the Relationship Between Performance Appraisal and Organizational Performance

Although prior research has consistently established a positive relationship between performance appraisal and organizational performance across different research contexts, the mechanisms that underlie this link remain unclear. The present study attempts to fill this void by testing the mediating role of ethical climate in the relationship between performance appraisal and organizational performance across 181 Nigerian public sector agencies. Cross-sectional mediation analyses were performed using partial least squares path modeling approach. Results indicated that performance appraisal was positively and significantly related to organizational performance. Regarding the mediating effect, ethical climate significantly mediated the relationship between performance appraisal and organizational performance. The study made recommendations and drew suggestions for future research to enhance the performance of public sector agencies.     

The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience

In this article, we examine the responsiveness of Turkey's trade balance to devaluation accompanied by trade liberalisation. Our results show that the trade balance was responsive to changes in the exchange rate that were brought about by the economic reforms introduced in the 1980s, suggesting that exchange rate policy was able to create and maintain a satisfactory balance of trade position in the 1980s and early 1990s.     

Adjudication of Islamic banking and finance cases in the civil courts of Malaysia

The adjudication of Islamic banking and finance (IBF) laws in Malaysia is unique given the Malaysian parallel legal systems. Although IBF is a branch of Islamic law, the civil court has the appropriate jurisdiction to decide the cases. This is due to the fact that banking falls under the items 7 and 8 of the Federal List of the Federal Constitution. The trails of decided cases showed that there are problems in resolving IBF cases in the civil courts. This paper aims to discuss the adjudication of Islamic Banking in the civil courts. The authors employed the method of legal documents analysis in analyzing the IBF cases. The analysis highlighted four obstacles in adjudicating IBF in civil courts, namely; inadequacy of existing legal framework, complications of legal documentation, competency of civil court judges and expert evidence. It also analysed the four approaches adopted by the civil courts in deciding IBF cases; the ‘parties to be bound by their agreement’, the ‘strict adherence to civil law’, the ‘justice and equitable’ and the ‘looking into the substance’.     

On the relationship between democratic institutionalization and civil society involvement: new evidence from Turkey

This study uses a nation-wide representative survey from 2004 to explore the link between civil society involvement and civic attitudes in Turkey. The article argues that, besides civic attitudes, political attitudes are also significant in explaining membership in ‘Olson type’ institutions, while membership in ‘Putnam type’ institutions does not depend on attitudinal variables. The article concludes that low civil society participation with a gender gap and intolerance of rural participants raises significant questions about the democratic potential of civil society in Turkey.     

Women and Support for Terrorism in Pakistan

ABSTRACT

While there have been many scholarly inquiries about the sources of support for terrorism among Muslim publics, to date, scholars have generally not asked whether or not gender predicts support for Islamist militancy. Instead, most scholars and officials assume that “men of military age” are the most important segment of interest. Instead, gender is usually treated as a “control variable” rather than a “study variable,” reflecting the paucity of interest in this subject. This is likely an important scholarly and policy-analytic oversight. Many terrorist groups have women’s wings and women-oriented publications and other outreach programs because they understand the important role that mothers, wives, and sisters play in a male family member’s decision to take up arms with a terrorist group. In some conflicts, women also join as combatants. In this paper, we seek to address these scholarly lacunae by examining gender-wise support for two militant groups based in and operating from Pakistan: the Afghan Taliban, which has no female outreach program, and the sectarian Sipha-e-Sahaba-e-Pakistan, which does. We leverage a dataset drawn from a relatively large national survey of Pakistanis collected in 2011 to model support for these groups using gender as an independent variable along with other demographic and control variables. We find that females are significantly more likely to support the sectarian group with a women’s outreach-wing. In contrast, there is no significant gender effect on support for the Afghan Taliban. We argue, from these results, that gender deserves more attention in understanding who supports and participates in Islamist militancy.