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Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman's version of an expected utility theory of war has become one of the most widely cited theories of international conflict. However, the testing of the theory has lagged behind its theoretical development. In its most sophisticated formulation, the theory has been tested on only 707 dyad-years, all drawn from Europe between 1816 and 1970. We present a test of the expected utility theory of war (as developed in War and Reason ) on the international system from 1816 to 1984. Specifically, we examine the relationship between the main equilibrium variables derived under the "domestic variant" of the international interaction game and behavioral outcomes using multinomial logit. We find that the equilibria correlate with actual behavior in both the set of all dyads and a subset of politically relevant dyads, even after including a set of control variables. The relationship is somewhat less clear among the population of all interstate-directed dyads, however, with key equilibrium variables having smaller effects at increasing the odds of interstate conflict among all dyads. We also present a new software program, EUGene , which generates expected utility data and can serve as an important data management tool for international relations researchers. 相似文献
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David F. Preusser Allan F. Williams Adrian K. Lund 《Journal of youth and adolescence》1985,14(2):73-84
Students in 75 high schools in seven states participated in a questionnaire survey. The results showed that high school students want to become licensed as soon as possible and that parents are important in teaching them to drive. Once licensed, the majority of students have their own cars, though they do not typically pay the majority of the costs. Seventy-one percent of licensed students who do not have their own cars reported that they can usually or always use a family car. Most students, particularly younger ones and females, reported that their parents expect them to conform to certain rules or restrictions when driving and when riding as passengers. The most common restrictions were that their parents asked them not to drive after drinking, to tell parents where they were going and with whom, and to be home at a certain time. Students were far less likely to report that their parents required that they wear seat belts.This work was supported by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.Received a Ph.D. in experimental psychology from Yale University. Research interests are highway safety, pedestrian safety, and evaluation of training and education programs.Received a Ph.D. in social psychology from Harvard University. Research interests are the factors related to motor vehicle injuries, drinking and driving, and the crash involvement of teenagers.Received a Ph.D. in social psychology from State University of New York at Buffalo. Research interests are health behavior and the role of the individual in public health. 相似文献
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Bret L. Billet Jan Knippers Black Daniel H. Levine Maristella Botticini Allan C. Reddy Lawrence S. Graham Harvey Glickman Fred H. Lawson Thomas U. Berger Paul W. Kuznets Yuan-li Wu Marianne A. Ferber Stephen P. Mumme Dilmus D. James Alison Brysk Carrie A. Meyer Juan M. del Aguila Robert W. Anderson Walter C. Opello M. C. Hallberg Luth Tweenten Anderson Professor 《Studies in Comparative International Development (SCID)》1994,29(3):84-126
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Allan Rosenbaum 《政策研究评论》1987,6(4):695-704
The federal government has, relative to other areas of social welfare program activity, been especially slow in the development of employment and training policy. The reasons for this can be found in terms of an understanding of the most basic American political and economic ideas. The history of federal initiatives in employment and training policy is traced briefly and the impact of certain American political ideas on this pattern of development is analyzed. Particular attention is given to the issues of coordinating of employment and training programs and the increased role of the state and private sector in designing and managing such programs. It is suggested that in light of certain historic American political patterns, there might be costs to moving in commonly sought after ways that are not readily evident. 相似文献
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