Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices,and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980–2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.     

Drug prevalence in drowning deaths in Cuyahoga County, Ohio: a ten-year retrospective study

Previous studies have shown that up to 50% of adult drownings are related to the consumption of alcohol. Little information is available in the literature regarding the possible contribution of ethanol and other drugs to drownings.All records of deaths occurring in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, from 1994-2003, in which drowning was listed as the cause of death, were reviewed. Toxicology analysis was performed on cases where specimens were submitted. Review of the 187 cases showed that the majority (78%) of drowning deaths were ruled as accidents, 26 (14%) as suicide, 5 (3%) as homicide, and 11 (6%) as undetermined.Among the accidental deaths (n=141), 97 (69%) were negative for all drugs, including ethanol, and 30 cases (21%) were positive for ethanol only. Illicit drugs were detected in 4 of the cases (3%). In the suicides (n=26), 16 (62%) were negative for all drugs, including ethanol, and 7 cases (27%) were positive for ethanol only (mean blood alcohol concentration [BAC] 0.03 g/dL). Illicit drugs were detected in 3 of the cases (12%). Two of the 5 homicide cases (40%) were positive for ethanol. There were no cases in which the victim tested positive for illicit drugs.Of the 11 cases ruled as undetermined, 64% (n=7) were negative for all drugs, including ethanol. The remainder of the cases tested positive for ethanol only. There were no cases in which illicit drugs were detected. This study demonstrates that the majority of drowning deaths in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, were not drug related. Deaths in which drugs were detected were typically accidental deaths, with ethanol the most common drug detected.