Political business cycles at the municipal level

The present article tests predictions of rational political business cycle models using a large and previously unexplored data set of Portuguese municipalities. This data allows for a clean test of these predictions due to the high level of detail on expenditure items, an exogenous fixed election schedule, and homogeneity of Portuguese local governments with respect to policy instruments and institutions. Estimation results clearly reveal the opportunistic behaviour of local governments. In pre-electoral periods, they increase total expenditures and change their composition favouring items that are highly visible to the electorate. This behaviour is consistent with an effort to signal competence and increase chances of re-election.     

Evaluating the Accuracy of Cranial Indices in Ancestry Estimation Among South African Groups

Historically, population differences were quantified using cranial indices. Even though the application of indices is associated with numerous statistical and methodological problems, the use of cranial indices to estimate ancestry persists as demonstrated by its inclusion in several recent papers and conference presentations. The purpose of this study was to classify 207 South African crania and compare the results of five standard cranial indices to linear discriminant analysis (LDA). New sectioning points were created to contend with low classification accuracies (40–79%) and possible secular trends. Although the accuracies of the new sectioning points increased (66–87%), the accuracies associated with the stepwise LDA were higher (84%) and could classify the crania into one of the three South African groups. The results of the study demonstrate that indices cannot compete with multivariate techniques and should not be used in forensic anthropological analyses for ancestry estimation.     

Metric Sex Determination of the Human Coxal Bone on a Virtual Sample using Decision Trees

Decision trees provide an alternative to multivariate discriminant analysis, which is still the most commonly used in anthropometric studies. Our study analyzed the metric characterization of a recent virtual sample of 113 coxal bones using decision trees for sex determination. From 17 osteometric type I landmarks, a dataset was built with five classic distances traditionally reported in the literature and six new distances selected using the two-step ratio method. A ten-fold cross-validation was performed, and a decision tree was established on two subsamples (training and test sets). The decision tree established on the training set included three nodes and its application to the test set correctly classified 92% of individuals. This percentage was similar to the data of the literature. The usefulness of decision trees has been demonstrated in numerous fields. They have been already used in sex determination, body mass prediction, and ancestry estimation. This study shows another use of decision trees enabling simple and accurate sex determination.     

Chemical identification and optimization of the 4-aminophenol colorimetric test for the differentiation between hemp-type and marijuana-type cannabis plant samples

The 4- Aminophenol (4-AP) colorimetric test is a fast, easy-to-use, and cost-effective presumptive assay of cannabis plant material producing different chromophores with THC-rich cannabis (blue color) and with CBD-rich cannabis (pink color). The main drawback of the 4-AP test is a brief observation window where the color rapidly changes to black, limiting the utility of the test. We now report for the first time, the identification of the product chromophores between 4-AP and CBD/THC as well as propose an explanation and a solution for the color degradation of the chromophores. The identification of the chromophores is provided by spectroscopic (UV–Vis), chromatography, and mass spectrometry (TLC and LC-QToF-MS). Oxidation of excess 4-AP (Reagent A) in the presence of NaOH (Reagent B) produces the black color observed for the previously reported 4-AP tests and reported in the literature. The adjustment of reactants concentrations and volumes of 4-AP:THC/CBD to a 1:1 ratio significantly reduces the black oxidation by-product and increases the observation window up to 2 h instead of the previously reported 5–10 min. For the first time, mass spectrometry and chromatography confirmed that the reaction of THC and CBD with 4-AP produced chromophores with m/z (M + H) = 420, consistent with proposed indophenol structures. The TLC method developed confirmed the separation between CBD and THC chromophores. The specificity of the test is also reported, showing false positive results for the presence of THC (blue color) for samples of thyme and oregano. LDA and SIMCA models showed that the optimized 4-AP procedure performs better than the previously reported 4-AP color test.     

From Bandung to Brasilia: IBSA and the political lineage of South–South cooperation

This article aims to trace South–South cooperation political lineages connecting the Non-Aligned Movement and the IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) Forum. In order to determine whether IBSA could be considered the ‘heir’ to Bandung's principles, we analyse the concepts of ‘Third World’ and ‘Global South’ as well as their current applicability, the interpretations provided by existing literature on the IBSA grouping, and its member countries' shared views on different issues of the international agenda. The article also considers the historical evolution of ‘Southern’ diplomatic thought and actions. IBSA's actions and history, as well as its members, are studied to grasp how they are related to the Third World movement in the Cold War.     

The Impact of Public Branding: An Experimental Study on the Effects of Branding Policy on Citizen Trust

Branding has become common in the public sector as brands are increasingly used to influence citizens’ associations with public organizations and public services. Using experimental research replicated in three European countries, this article investigates the effect of using the European Union (EU) brand on trust in policies. Experiments were conducted among economics students in Belgium, Poland, and The Netherlands to test the hypothesis that adding EU brand elements to policies positively affects trust in those policies. The results show a consistent positive and significant effect of applying the EU brand to trust in the policies in all countries and for both policies included in the experiment—even in The Netherlands, a country characterized by a negative overall EU sentiment. These findings provide some of the first empirical evidence of the effectiveness of branding for public policy.     

From partisan to pluralist ideology: the changing practices of democracy through Spain’s 20th-century constitutional moments

This article explores the practices of democracy in Spain through the lens of its 20th-century constitutional moments, namely, those around the 1931 and the 1978 constitutions, with the aim of elucidating its changing ideological significance. Whereas in 1931, supporting democracy had a strongly partisan meaning, as every endorsement of the democratic ideal entailed a conflicting understanding of the Republic’s democratic character, in 1978 it gave rise to an integrative form of pluralism. Even if the former has left a deep imprint on Spanish politics, anticipating a kind of seemingly irreconcilable opposition between left and right, the latter has proved instrumental in the consolidation of the new democratic regime. After the institutional distortion of democracy during the four-decade dictatorship’s ‘organic democracy’, since 1977 the ideal of democracy was thoroughly recast into a pluralist ideology. Unlike views describing it as a consensual regime, the article argues that the politics of consensus tested since the 1977 constitutional debates paved the way for the accommodation of democratic pluralism; furthermore, the culture of pacts it contributed to set up has continued to inspire a new form of adversarial, parliamentary politics well beyond the transition years.     

Has the gender gap in voter turnout really disappeared?

According to conventional wisdom, the traditional gender gap in voting has disappeared or even reversed in most established democracies. Drawing on the existing literature on differences between the sexes in political engagement and on pioneering voter turnout theories, this article questions the conventional assumption and hypothesises that women still participate at a lower rate in less important elections. It systematically tests this hypothesis by exploring the impact of gender on voter turnout in different electoral arenas. The empirical analyses of two cross-national datasets (Making Electoral Democracy Work and the European Election Study) demonstrate that although there is generally no gender gap in first-order elections, women tend to vote less than men in second-order contests. This reflects lower levels of interest in politics among women and their lower levels of knowledge about politics when it comes to second-order elections.