Modeling the Referral Decision in Sexual Assault Cases: An Application of Random Forests

This paper examines the decision to refer a sexual assault case for prosecution using a sample of 730 reported sexual assaults in which the victim received a medical/forensic examination. The decision to refer a case for prosecution was modeled using an algorithmic modeling technique, Random Forests. The key advantages of this modeling approach include its superiority in predicting case outcomes and its ability to easily uncover nonlinear relationships. Key results indicate that the likelihood of referral increased when sperm was found and documented, when the victim could identify the suspect, and as the severity of nongenital injury increased. Neither the presence nor the severity of genital injury impacted the decision to refer a case for prosecution. On the whole, suspect and report characteristics had the largest impact on referring cases for prosecution, with victim characteristics having little influence.     

Interest groups in Brazil: a new era and its challenges

This article provides general and specific insights into Brazil's developing interest group system. In doing so, it presents a theoretical foundation for understanding this group activity, past and present. The general insights of the role of interest groups under limited political participation and authoritarian regimes down to the 1980s plus the period of democracy since then, provide background for the specific insights of the article. The specifics focus on three aspects of Brazil's contemporary interest group activity: (1) utilization of a neo-institutional analytical approach for understanding the interest group environment; (2) an analysis of the types of lobbying activity that takes place in Brazil today, including a case study; and (3) an assessment of the level of development of the group system by placing it in a comparative perspective with both advanced liberal democracies and other Latin American countries. The findings show that Brazil is, indeed, taking on many of the characteristics of a developed interest group system; but its past, its political culture, its political economy, and, paradoxically, its new-found status as an international power, work to present several challenges to its group system and thus to a full democratization of the country. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Leader Without Followers? The Growing Divergence Between the Regional and Global Performance of Brazilian Foreign Policy

Brazilian diplomats and academics alike have long regarded regional leadership as a springboard to global recognition. Yet Brazil's foreign policy has not translated the country's structural and instrumental resources into effective regional leadership. Brazil's potential followers have not aligned with its main goals, such as a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and Directorship‐General of the World Trade Organization; some have even challenged its regional influence. Nevertheless, Brazil has been recognized as an emergent global power. This article analyzes the growing mismatch between the regional and global performance of Brazilian foreign policy and shows how both theoretical expectations and policy planning were “luckily foiled” by unforeseen developments. It argues that because of regional power rivalries and a relative paucity of resources, Brazil is likely to consolidate itself as a middle global power before gaining acceptance as a leader in its region.     

Identification and characterization of the new designer drug 4'-methylethcathinone (4-MEC) and elaboration of a novel liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) screening method for seven different methcathinone analogs

A fast and simple LC-MS/MS method was developed for screening mephedrone, butylone, methylenedioxypyrovalerone (MDPV), flephedrone, methylone and methedrone in bulk powder samples. Samples were separated on a reverse phase column using gradient elution with mixtures of water, acetonitrile and formic acid. After optimization a limit of detection of about 2ngmL(-1) was achieved using multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) mode. Total run time was less than 8min. Typical fragmentation characteristics of the studied compounds are discussed. The method was successfully applied to several unknown bulk powder samples seized by the Hungarian Customs and Finance Guard. One of the samples contained the new designer drug 4'-methylethcathinone (4-MEC), which was identified and characterized by LC-MS/MS, NMR, FT-IR and LC-TOF-MS techniques. The method is also deemed to be applicable for the screening of simple dosage forms such as tablets and capsules.