Whether one votes and how one votes

The aim of this paper is to determine if whether one votes effects the vote that is cast. Using an economic model of voting and observed voting results on nuclear power referenda, the answer is a resounding yes. Overcoming registration, turnout, and “roll off” hurdles dramatically increases the odds of voting against nuclear power. Indeed, participation swamps both economic and preference variables in the explanation of nuclear power voting outcomes. The lesson is that there is a structure to participation at the polls that should not be ignored by those interested in analyzing voting outcomes.     

Zur statistischen Analyse von Vollerhebungen

When analyzing superpopulation data, inferential statistical methods should be used. Empirical tests of hypotheses are subject to a variety of stochastic processes, or “errors”, even if the data involved in those tests are not the product of random sampling. Assumptions about the nature of these processes have to be an explicit part of the analysis and need to be justified. Using several examples of published research, we make transparent that all substantive conclusions are conditional on the assumptions about the nature of the stochastic processes that are at work in generating superpopulation data.     

Concepts of Fascism in Contemporary Russia and the West

During the 1990s, Western comparative fascist studies underwent a process of consolidation. A growing number of scholars agreed to and now use various forms of a more or less consensual definition of fascism as an extremely nationalistic and revolutionary ideology. In contrast, the conceptualisations and applications of 'fascism' in post-Soviet Russia are contradictory continuing Soviet misuse of the term. Increasing anti-democratic tendencies in Russian politics and society suggest closer attention by Western scholars to putative post-Soviet fascisms.     

Pre-electoral coalitions in comparative perspective: A test of existing hypotheses

Despite the vast coalition literature, pre-electoral coalitions have never been at the center of any systematic, cross-national research. Given their prevalence and potential impact on government composition and policies, this represents a serious omission in our knowledge of coalitions. I begin to remedy this situation by testing two hypotheses found in the literature on party coalitions. The first is that pre-electoral coalitions are more likely to form in disproportional systems if there are a sufficiently large number of parties. The second is that pre-electoral coalitions are more likely to form if voters face high uncertainty about the identity of future governments. These hypotheses are tested using a new dataset comprising legislative elections in 22 advanced industrialized countries between 1946 and 1998. The results of the statistical analysis support the first hypothesis, but not the second.     

Corporate governance in Germany: The changing role of the banks

The article analyses the different channels ‐ industrial stakes, supervisory board mandates, proxy voting ‐ by which German banks can exert influence on industrial companies. The central thesis is that even where the banks have such influence they do not dominate the companies. A recent empirical study on the effects of the alleged bank dominance over industrial companies with detrimental effects on their performance is shown to contain major methodological mistakes. The relationship between banks and industry is undergoing some distinct changes. Banks have substantially reduced their industrial stakes as well as their representation on supervisory boards, which underlines that they are not striving for industrial leadership. Despite a clear trend in the German corporate sector to pay increasing attention to shareholder value and to provide more transparency in accounting, it seems premature to expect the German capital market, including the corporate governance system, to incorporate fully the Anglo‐Saxon model in the immediate future.     

Schranken des Rechts zur Pflichtteilsminderung nach § 773a Abs 3 ABGB

Das Recht auf Pflichtteilsminderung steht nach § 773a Abs 3 ABGB nicht zu, wenn der Erblasser die Ausübung des Rechts auf pers?nlichen Verkehr mit dem Pflichtteilsberechtigten grundlos abgelehnt hat. Im Rahmen dieser Bestimmung sind minderj?hrige und erwachsene Kinder gleich zu behandeln. § 773a Abs 3 ABGB ist auch auf solche Testamente anzuwenden, die vor dem 1. 7. 2001 (Inkrafttreten dieser Bestimmung) verfasst worden sind. Zum Entfall des Minderungsrechts führt aber nur ein Verhalten, das der Erblasser nach dem 1. 7. 2001 gesetzt hat. Für Dauersachverhalte (hier: das Verh?ltnis Eltern und Kind) gelten die Rechtsfolgen eines neuen Gesetzes ab seinem Inkrafttreten; mangels abweichender übergangsregelung ist der Teil des Dauertatbestands, der in den zeitlichen Geltungsbereich des neuen Gesetzes reicht, nach der neuen Rechtslage zu beurteilen.     

A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election

Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.