Soziale Herkunft, politische Sozialisation und Wählen im Lebensverlauf

In this paper the influence of social origin as well as both the political communication and the religious education in the family on the voting behaviour in the life course have been investigated. Furthermore, we investigate the intergenerational transmission of parental party identification and the duration of its impact on the children’s voting patterns. For the empirical analyses, retrospective longitudinal data are employed. The empirical results confirm the significant impact of the social origin, the religious education, and the parental party identification on voting. However, their impact decreases in the later stages of the life cycle. Furthermore, the intergenerational reproduction of parental party identification has decreased significantly over consecutive generations.     

Confinement as a two‐stage turning point: Do changes in identity or social structure predict subsequent changes in criminal activity?*

Scholars frequently characterize incarceration as a possible turning point in criminal activity. This implies a two‐stage process: 1) change in life‐course mechanisms around confinement and reentry result in 2) subsequent change in criminal activity relative to preconfinement. Following this model, we examine change in criminal activity, criminal identity, and social/structural challenges using data from the Prison Project, a cohort of adult males with short‐term confinement in the Netherlands in 2010–2011. Results of a novel test for within‐individual change in arrests from preconfinement to post‐reentry show that most individuals are stable—yet there is a substantial group who go down meaningfully and a much smaller group who go up. Even though changes in criminal identity from the intervening period do not predict these change groups, increases in social/structural challenges predict those who go up in criminal activity. We build from prior work on desistance and reentry, contrasting our findings and highlighting the unique insight gained from, as well as challenges of, measuring individual change within our two‐stage turning point model. Although life‐course mechanisms often correspond with changes in criminal activity concurrently, identifying individual changes that are predictors of subsequent shifts in criminal offending remains elusive.     

Like father,like son? Power and influence across two Gnassingbé presidencies in Togo

In personalized authoritarian systems, the death of a leader poses a serious challenge to regime survival. Togo, however, belongs to a small number of countries in which regime collapse has been avoided by the transfer of power to the deceased ruler’s son. But can the son simply pick up where the father left off? Combining a theoretically guided single case study with statistical network analysis, this article argues that hereditary succession involves both changes and continuities. While Gnassingbé Eyadema’s rule rested on repression, patronage, and a bizarre leadership cult, his son Faure Gnassingbé has partly adapted and reformulated these strategies. The quantitative part of the article is based on a novel data set that contains information on the biographical characteristics and interaction patterns of the deputies in the Togolese parliament. Using exponential random graph models (ERGMs), the article shows that people who have held important positions in the past or belong to the president’s ethnic group still play a significant role in the regime elite. The article not only presents detailed insights on a so far under-researched country, but also contributes to the wider literature by showing how mixed-method designs can further our understanding of authoritarian regimes.     

The Reliability of Chronological Age Determination by Means of Mandibular Third Molar Development in Subjects in Croatia*

Abstract: The aim of this study was to determine the development of the mandibular third molar and its relation to chronological age. The evaluated material consisted of 979 orthopantomograms of patients of Croatian Caucasian origin aged between 5.7 and 14.6 years. Third molar developmental stages were evaluated according to the stages proposed by Nolla. The frequencies of different stages of mineralization and the mean value of the mineralization of the mandibular third molars with regard to age, gender, and size of the mandible were determined and the coefficient of correlation determined between the age of the subject and the stage of development of the mandibular molars. Statistically significant correlation was determined between mineralization of the mandibular third molar and chronological age of the subjects (boys, mandibular left third molar r = 0.779, right third molar r = 0.793; girls, mandibular left third molar r = 0.746, right third molar r = 0.725). It can be concluded that the accuracy of age estimation based on Nolla’s method is applicable for Croatian children.     

The government behind insurance governance: Lessons for ransomware

The insurance as governance literature focuses on the ability of private enterprises to collectively regulate, pool, and distribute risks. This paper analyzes how governments support insurance markets to maintain insurability and limit risks to society. We propose a new conceptual framework grouping government interventions into three dimensions: regulation of risky activity, public investment in risk reduction, and co-insurance. We apply this framework to six case studies, describing insurance markets' reliance on public support in more analytically precise terms. We analyze how mature insurance markets overcame insurability challenges akin to those currently presented by extortive cybercrime. Private governance struggled when markets grew too big for informal coordination or when (tail) risks escalated. Government interventions vary widely. Some governments prioritize supporting economic activity while others concentrate on containing risks. Governments also choose between risk reduction and ex post socialization of losses. We apply these insights to the market for ransomware insurance, discussing the merits and potential hazards of current proposals for government intervention.