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121.
Australia has experienced one of the fastest growing public debt levels in the world post‐Global Financial Crisis due to a series of large federal budget deficits driven by high government spending. In this paper we examine the balance sheet implications of this escalating public debt, before proposing some macro‐fiscal objectives for determining its sustainable level. These objectives are to (i) restore the federal government's solvency; (ii) eliminate foreign public debt; and (iii) achieve budgetary balance over the business cycle. Empirically, we first examine how much fiscal consolidation is required for debt stabilisation at current levels, before considering what sized budget balances are needed to achieve the target debt to GDP ratios consistent with the proposed objectives. The results show that no target debt to GDP level consistent with the optimal levels will be met on current fiscal settings in the medium term. This implies significantly greater fiscal consolidation is required to minimise future fiscal risk. 相似文献
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J.C. Gaillard Jake Rom Cadag Anthony Gampell Katherine Hore Loic Le Dé Alice McSherry 《Development in Practice》2016,26(8):998-1012
This article discusses the opportunities and challenges associated with the use of quantitative participatory methods and participatory numbers for integrating locals’ and outsiders’ knowledge, as well as actions from the bottom-up and top-down, in development. It places emphasis on the contribution of quantitative participatory methods and participatory numbers to foster dialogue between a wide range of stakeholders, for example, local people, NGOs, government agencies and scientists, who usually seldom directly engage with each other. The article draws on case studies that discuss remittances and disasters in Samoa, and disaster risk reduction in the Philippines. 相似文献
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John S. Buckleton D.Sc. Simone Gittelson Ph.D. Tamyra R. Moretti Ph.D. Anthony J. Onorato M.C.I.M. M.S.F.S. Frederick R. Bieber Ph.D. Bruce Budowle Ph.D. Duncan A. Taylor Ph.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2019,64(2):393-405
Forensic DNA interpretation is transitioning from manual interpretation based usually on binary decision‐making toward computer‐based systems that model the probability of the profile given different explanations for it, termed probabilistic genotyping (PG). Decision‐making by laboratories to implement probability‐based interpretation should be based on scientific principles for validity and information that supports its utility, such as criteria to support admissibility. The principles behind STRmix? are outlined in this study and include standard mathematics and modeling of peak heights and variability in those heights. All PG methods generate a likelihood ratio (LR) and require the formulation of propositions. Principles underpinning formulations of propositions include the identification of reasonably assumed contributors. Substantial data have been produced that support precision, error rate, and reliability of PG, and in particular, STRmix?. A current issue is access to the code and quality processes used while coding. There are substantial data that describe the performance, strengths, and limitations of STRmix?, one of the available PG software. 相似文献
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Various methodological approaches to constructing external and internal benchmarks have been applied to estimate racial bias in police stop, question, and frisk (SQF) patterns. We apply an external benchmark of the race of the residential population and an internal benchmark of similarly-situated stops to estimate if racial disparities in New York City SQF data were impacted by the Floyd, et al. v. City of New York court settlement. We find that after the settlement, the racial composition of census tracts were no longer significant predictors of the stop rate after controlling for reported crime, socioeconomic factors, and police precincts. We further find that differences in SQF outcomes and hit rates between Blacks and Hispanics and similarly-situated others diminished substantially after the settlement. These findings suggest that court reforms may be an effective method for reducing racial disparities in SQF patterns. 相似文献