Risk,reconviction rates and pro-offending attitudes for child molesters in a complete geographical area of London

Abstract

The study reports on all convicted child molesters in an inner city area over seven years, half of whom received a community treatment package. The average time at risk in the community was three years. There were 17 ‘failures’: subjects who were either breached for non-compliance, or reconvicted for general, violent or sexual offences. Historical, rather than cognitive variables appeared to be associated with failure. Key factors were a history of being sexually victimised and previous sexual/violent convictions.     

The development and initial testing of the AIM2 framework to assess risk and strengths in young people who sexually offend

Abstract

This paper describes the AIM2 assessment framework and the process of its development and initial testing. AIM2 is used to assess areas of concerns and strengths of young people. Some preliminary analysis is described, including the correlation of assessment items, their ability to discriminate between cases, their inter-rater reliability and a small-scale recidivist study. These analyses were used to develop AIM2. Results from the recidivist study identified a particular set of concern and strength factors associated with recidivism in the sample. We conclude that the inclusion of strengths-related items are important to consider as protective factors when assessing the risk of further sexually abusive behaviours. Limitations and future directions of AIM2 are also discussed.     

How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Abstract

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.     

Public policy inquiry and advice as an aspect of constitutional reform

This article presents for the first time an outline of a classified review of the many types (some 20) of public policy inquiry or review exercises used in British public affairs. They are mainly created by the government but are also increasingly promoted by private bodies hoping to influence government and the established specialist interests in a policy field by supplying free and authoritative information and recommendations. A brief commentary on each of these ‘decision advice processes’ (DAPs) draws out their changing profile and questions the democratic propriety of the executive itself now investigating or reviewing important public policy issues which were, until quite recently, unquestioningly given out by departments for external and (normally) independent‐minded commissions and committees of inquiry to study and recommend upon. The question of whether the current movement for constitutional reform should include the overall ‘decision advice process’ and place it on a more independent and authoritative basis is raised. A parliamentary, rather than (or as well as) an executive, basis for most official ‘DAPs’ is proposed, while the currently flourishing practice of charitable foundations, think‐tanks and established interest groups promoting unofficial DAPs for the information and guidance of the government, parliament and the public is endorsed.     

Does Hot Spots Policing Have Meaningful Impacts on Crime? Findings from An Alternative Approach to Estimating Effect Sizes from Place-Based Program Evaluations

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - Prior meta analyses of hot spots policing show that the approach reduces crime, but report relatively small mean effect sizes based on Cohen’s d. The...     

Through thick or thin? The performance and operation of firms and the institutional thickness model

The idea that “institutional thickness” is an important component for the resilience of local economies continues to attract attention several years after the seminal work on the subject by Amin and Thrift (1994). In Melbourne's northern suburbs, one manufacturing sector has recently seen significant job growth. Coinciding with this trend is the emergence of regional economic development bodies. Have they influenced the performance and operation of firms? Results from interviews with firm managers suggest not, with non-institutional factors predominating. This “business as usual” scenario suggests local economic development strategies have limitations.     

Intervening in gun markets: an experiment to assess the impact of targeted gun-law messaging

The objective of this study was to assess whether targeting new gun buyers with a public safety message aimed at improving gun law awareness can modify gun purchasers’ behaviors. Between May 2007 and September 2008, 2,120 guns were purchased in two target neighborhoods of the City of Los Angeles. Starting in August 2007, gun buyers initiating transactions on odd-numbered days received a letter signed by prominent law enforcement officials, indicating that law enforcement had a record of their gun purchase and that the gun buyer should properly record future transfers of the gun. The letters arrived during buyers’ 10-day waiting periods, before they could legally return to the store to collect their new gun. Subsequent gun records were extracted to assess the letter’s effect on legal secondary sales, reports of stolen guns, and recovery of the gun in a crime. An intent-to-treat analysis was also conducted as a sensitivity check to remedy a lapse in the letter program between May and August 2007. The letter appears to have no effect on the legal transfer rate or on the short-term rate of guns subsequently turning up in a crime. However, we found that the rate at which guns are reported stolen for those who received the letter is more than twice the rate for those who did not receive the letter (p value = 0.01). Those receiving the letter reported their gun stolen at a rate of 18 guns per 1,000 gun-years and those not receiving the letter reported their gun stolen at a rate of 7 guns per 1,000 gun-years. Of those receiving the letter, 1.9% reported their gun stolen during the study period compared to 1.0% for those who did not receive the letter. The percentage of guns reported stolen in these neighborhoods is high, indicating a high rate of true gun theft, a regular practice of using stolen-gun reports to separate the gun buyer from future misuse of the gun, or some blend of both. Simple, targeted gun law awareness campaigns can modify new gun buyers’ behaviors. Additional follow-up or modifications to this initiative might be needed to impact the rate at which guns enter the illegal gun market and ultimately are recovered in crimes.     

Routine activities and victimization at school: the significance of gender

Routine activities theory has not fully considered the role of gender in shaping victimization and yet, the research literature clearly demonstrates that gender is associated with an individual's risk of victimization. In addition to the pervasive effect of gender on victimization, gender shapes an individual's daily routines and thus may create a gender-specific relationship with victimization. This article explores the importance of gender in understanding the relationship between student's participation in extracurricular routine activities (e.g., student government, clubs, sports, and etc.) and the risk of victimization. From the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, a sample of 10th-grade students was drawn for analyses. Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling was employed to explore the role of gender in the relationship between extracurricular routine activities and victimization at school. The results reveal that students' gender indeed interacts with several of the extracurricular routine activities creating gender-specific risks of victimization. This article highlights the importance of gender in explaining victimization and suggests researchers should consider how gender may interact with other routine activities and victimization.     

Phencyclidine: a 5-year retrospective review from the New York City Medical Examiner's Office

We report here a 5-year retrospective review of autopsy cases from the New York City Medical Examiner's Office that demonstrated phencyclidine (PCP) in the blood. There were a total of 138 cases. There were 52 deaths because of mixed drug intoxication: the blood PCP concentrations in these cases ranged from <1 to 598 ng/mL. There were 80 violent deaths in which PCP was quantified in the blood but was unrelated to the cause of death. There were five nonviolent deaths in which PCP exclusively was detected. In four of these, there were preexisting medical conditions that could also have contributed to death. In these, the highest PCP concentration was 361.3 ng/mL, a concentration lower than seven of the individuals in our violent death category. This suggests that lower concentrations may be fatal with comorbid conditions.