Small changes, big results: Legislative voting behavior in the presence of new voters

Changes in district boundaries in small magnitude electoral systems can have substantive consequences for representation. In the U.S., each decennial redistricting cycle infuses House districts with a large number of new voters, changing personal representation for many citizens. What effect does the influx of these new voters exert on member behavior? By assessing the extent of this change in constituencies in conjunction with member voting behavior on roll calls, we can determine if significant changes to a congressional district impact post-redistricting legislative behavior. Using panel data estimators and various measures of legislator behavior, we show evidence that supports this claim. Our findings have notable implications for debates over representation and electoral accountability in legislative assemblies.     

Exploring Risk: Potential Static,Dynamic, Protective and Treatment Factors in the Clinical Histories of Female Sex Offenders

Despite nearly a century of knowledge indicating a significant number of women engaging in sexual activities with children, the phenomenon has not yet been fully acknowledged. Recently, however, there has been a marked increase in research in this area. However, due to the relatively small numbers of detections or convictions there remains a lack of data regarding: (1) the specific clinical characteristics of female sex offenders; and (2) how these clinical factors link to re-offending and treatment need. The following study examines potential risk, protective, and treatment factors that are highlighted through the process of clinical intervention, using an adapted version of the Beech and Ward (2004) risk framework. We describe how female sex offenders typically display clinical deficits in the same risk domains as their male counterparts, while noting the ways in which these deficits manifest in this population. In addition, we compare these vulnerability factors in four established types of female sex offender.     

The Concentration and Stability of Gun Violence at Micro Places in Boston, 1980–2008

Boston, like many other major U.S. cities, experienced an epidemic of gun violence during the late 1980s and early 1990s that was followed by a sudden large downturn in gun violence in the mid 1990s. The gun violence drop continued until the early part of the new millennium. Recent advances in criminological research suggest that there is significant clustering of crime in micro places, or “hot spots,” that generate a disproportionate amount of criminal events in a city. In this paper, we use growth curve regression models to uncover distinctive developmental trends in gun assault incidents at street segments and intersections in Boston over a 29-year period. We find that Boston gun violence is intensely concentrated at a small number of street segments and intersections rather than spread evenly across the urban landscape between 1980 and 2008. Gun violence trends at these high-activity micro places follow two general trajectories: stable concentrations of gun assaults incidents over time and volatile concentrations of gun assault incidents over time. Micro places with volatile trajectories represent less than 3% of street segments and intersections, generate more than half of all gun violence incidents, and seem to be the primary drivers of overall gun violence trends in Boston. Our findings suggest that the urban gun violence epidemic, and sudden downturn in urban gun violence in the late 1990s, may be best understood by examining highly volatile micro-level trends at a relatively small number of places in urban environments.     

Scanning electron microscopy analysis of experimental bone hacking trauma of the mandible

The authors report on a macroscopic and microscopic study of human mandible bone lesions achieved by a single-blade knife and a hatchet. The aim of this work was to complete the previous data (scanning electron microscopy analysis of bone lesions made by a single-blade knife and a hatchet, on human femurs) and to compare the lesions of the femur with those of the mandible. The results indicate that the mandible is a more fragile bone, but the features observed on the mandible are quite similar to those previously observed on the femur. This work spells out the main scanning electron microscopy characteristics of sharp (bone cutting) and blunt (exerting a pressure on the bone) mechanisms on human bone. Weapon characteristics serve to explain all of these features.     

Focused Deterrence Strategies and Crime Control

Research Summary

Focused deterrence strategies are increasingly being applied to prevent and control gang and group‐involved violence, overt drug markets, and individual repeat offenders. Our updated examination of the effects of focused deterrence strategies on crime followed the systematic review protocols and conventions of the Campbell Collaboration. Twenty‐four quasi‐experimental evaluations were identified in this systematic review. The results of our meta‐analysis demonstrate that focused deterrence strategies are associated with an overall statistically significant, moderate crime reduction effect. Nevertheless, program effect sizes varied by program type and were smaller for evaluations with more rigorous research designs.

Policy Implications

The available empirical evidence suggests these strategies generate noteworthy crime reduction impacts and should be part of a broader portfolio of crime reduction strategies available to policy makers and practitioners. Investments still need to be made, however, to strengthen the overall rigor of program evaluations and improve our understanding of key program activities associated with observed crime reduction impacts.     

A paper tiger? Political implications of an export‐led growth strategy for South Africa

The paper examines the theoretical and empirical debates surrounding the benefits of an export‐led growth strategy. The experience of two newly industrialised countries are analyzed and discussed in relation to South Africa's political and economic position. The writers attempt to show that an uncritical acceptance of ‘recipes’ for economic development, which do not take into account specific domestic political and economic factors, could lead to inappropriate policy formulation and implementation.     

The contradictions of neo-extractivism and social policy: the role of raw material exports in the Brazilian political crisis

This article explores how contradictory development tendencies within Brazil’s primary sector have contributed to the country’s enduring political crisis. I show that President Rousseff, when dealing with declining royalty payments from natural resource exports and a decrease in tax revenue from imports, financed social policies in ways that her opponents branded as unconstitutional to remove her from power. After documenting the central players within the political crisis, namely those who have been under investigation in Operação Lava Jato (Operation Car Wash), I illustrate how the ongoing corruption scandals plaguing Brazil have their roots in the country’s raw material export industries.     

The Politics of Infrastructural Projects: A Case for Evidence-Based Policymaking

Many developing countries currently face tightening fiscal constraints as a result of the global financial crisis and associated reduction in both credit and demand. Policymarkers therefore have less fiscal space within which to undertake projects, so the opportunity cost of any misallocation of resources will be correspondingly higher. There is therefore an increasing need to rely more on evidence-based policymaking (EBPM). The is particularly so for large infrastructural projects, as these tend to be costly, and especially for transportation projects as these are particularly prone to result in sub-optimal outcomes. This paper examines the policy process for the implementation of the Jamaican Highway 2000, one of the largest and most costly infrastructure projects in Jamaica in recent years. A number of primary and secondary data sources were explored to ascertain the extent to which the decision to implement the project reflects a case for evidence-based decision-making in practice. This made it clear that the decision was taken at least partly on political grounds, largely in the absence of any supportive evidence, and on the basis of over-optimistic and unrealistic assumptions, and that this has created a number of serious, long-term challenges for Jamaica.     

Examining the effectiveness of a UK community-based sexual offender treatment programme for child abusers

Abstract

An analysis of psychometric data from a sample of 341 UK child abusers who had completed a probation-based sex offender treatment programme was carried out in order to assess the effectiveness of therapeutic treatment. A cluster analysis was also undertaken to examine the pattern of pre-treatment problems. Three clusters of offenders, with distinctly different psychometric profiles, were identified depending upon the number and extent of their offence-specific and social adequacy problems. These were labelled Low need, Medium need and High need. Pre–post analyses revealed clinically significant treatment effects for the entire sample, with differing effects found across the clusters as follows: 50–81% of the Low need group scored within the cut-off (or normative range) at the post stage, while between 3% and 26% had shifted to a clinically significant degree; 34–75% of the Medium need group scored within the cut-off range after treatment, while between 9% and 100% had shifted to a clinically significant degree; 16–52% of the High need sample scored within the cut-off at the post-treatment stage, and between 15% and 80% had shifted to a clinically significant degree.     

Dynamic risk factors: a theoretical dead-end?

While the quality of empirical research on risk predication, assessment and management in the sexual offending field has been of a high standard, relatively little attention has been paid to theoretical issues related to risk and its conceptualisation. In this paper, we develop alternative ways of understanding dynamic risk factors and their utility in theory construction and case formulation. We would stress that this work is of a preliminary nature but believe that it is crucial that standard clinical and research practices are critically challenged from time to time, and their underlying theoretical assumptions evaluated. Our aim is to encourage researchers and practitioners to look at the issue of dynamic risk factors from a different viewpoint; one that we hope can help move the sex offender field forward.