Selective incapacitation and the Philadelphia cohort data

The University of Pennsylvania study of delinquency in a Philadelphia birth cohort has been described byNewsweek as perhaps the most influential piece of criminal justice research in the last decade (March 23, 1981). Many have construed the findings as showing that, if imprisonment were focused on the minority of offenders with especially bad prognoses, the rate of crime could be reduced substantially. But others have taken the opposite view that the cohort data, far from endorsing such a selective incapacitation strategy, might actually provide strong evidence that such an approach is futile. Through some further analyses of the Philadelphia data, we attempt to clarify their policy implications.     

Reviews

Israel Getzler, Kronstadt 1917–1921: The Fate of a Soviet Democracy. London: Cambridge University Press, 1983, xii + 296 pp. £25.00.

Hans Dieter Seibel and Ukandi G. Damachi, Self‐Management in Yugoslavia and the Developing World, London: Macmillan, 1982, 316 pp. £20.00. Fred Singleton and Bernard Carter, The Economy of Yugoslavia, London: Croom Helm, and New York: St. Martin's, 1982, 279 pp. £19.95.

Steven Rosefielde, False Science: Underestimating the Soviet Arms Buildup. An Appraisal of the CIA's Direct Costing Effort, 1960–80. New Brunswick and London: Transaction Books, 1982, xxi + 340 pp. p/b $14.95.

Donald S. Zagoria (ed.), Soviet Policy in East Asia, London: Yale University Press, 1982, xiii+360 pp. £21.00.

Aryeh Y. Yodfat, The Soviet Union and the Arabian Peninsula, London: Croom Helm, 1983, 191 pp. £13.95.

David Lane, The End of Social Inequality? Class, Status and Power Under State Socialism, London, Boston and Sydney: George Allen and Unwin, 1982, x+208 pp. h/b £12.95. p/b £4.95.

P. J. Potichnyj and J. S. Zacek (eds.), Politics and Participation under Communist Rule, New York: Praeger Special Studies, 1983, xvii+282 pp. $29.95.

Vladimir G. Treml, Alcohol in the USSR: A Statistical Study, Durham, N.C.: Duke Press Policy Studies, 1982, xiii + 103 pp. $27.75.

R. Amann and J. M. Cooper (eds.), Industrial Innovation in the Soviet Union, New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1982, xxix+526 pp. £33.00.

Malcolm R. Hill, East‐West Trade, Industrial Co‐operation and Technology Transfer, London: Gower Publishing, 1983, xviii+217 pp. £15.00.

Roy Medvedev, (translated by Brian Pearce), Khrushchev, Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1982, x + 292 pp. £9.50.

Roger Munting, The Economic Development of the USSR, London: Croom Helm, 1982, 228 pp. (with one map and 54 tables). £13.95.

David Rousset, The Legacy of the Bolshevik Revolution: A Critical History of the USSR, volume 1, London/New York: Allison and Busby, 1982, translated by Alan Freeman, 333 pp. h/b £13.95, p/b £5.95.     

Book reviews

Nations and Politics in the Soviet Successor States Ian Bremmer and Ray Taras, (editors) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993, 577 pp, £35

Central Asia in World History S. A. M. Adshead London: Macmillan Press, 1993, 291 pp, £40

Turkey and the West: Changing Political and Cultural Identities Metin Heper, Ayse Oncu and Heinz Kramer (editors) London: I. B. Tauris, New York: St Martins Press, 1993, 289 pp, £39.50

Endurance and Endeavour. Russian History 1812–1992 J. N. Westwood Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993, 624 pp, £40

State, Religion and Society in Central Asia. A Post‐Soviet Critique Vitaly Naumkin and Sergei A. Panarin (editors) Reading: Ithaca Press, 1993, 289 pp, £35

Communism Ferdinand Mount (editor) London: Harvill, 1992, 321 pp, £9.99     

Book reviews

The Partition of the Steppe. The Struggle of the Russians, Manchus, and the Zunghar Mongols for Empire in Central Asia, 1619–1758: A Study in Power Politics Fred W. Bergholz New York: Peter Lang, 1993, vi + 522 pp, hardcover

On Secret Service East of Constantinople: the plot to bring down the British Empire Peter Hopkirk London: John Murray, 1994. xvi, 431 pp. illus., £19.99

The Soviet Union and its Southern Neighbours: Iran and Afghanistan Mikhail Volodarsky London: Frank Cass Publishers, 1994, 196 pp, $37.50

Moscow's Lost Empire Michael Rywkin Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1994, 214 pp, biblio, index

Russia and the Third World in the Post‐Soviet Era Mohiaddin Mesbahi (editor) Gainesville, USA: University Press of Florida, 1994, 414 pp, $49.95 cloth, $19.95/£18 paper

Central Asia and the World: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan Michael Mandelbaum (editor) New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1994, viii, 251 pp, $16.95 paperback     

Book Reviews

Arabs and Islam in Uzbekistan. History of Middle (Central) Asia from the ruling dynasties to today Buribai Ahmedov and Zahidulla Munavvarov Nematulla Ibrahimov (editor) Beirut‐Lebanon: Sharikat al‐matbu at li al‐Tawzi va al‐Nashr, 1996, 464 pp (in Arabic)

Central Asia: Conflict or Stability and Development Shirin Akiner London: Minority Rights Group, 1997, 51 pp ISBN 1 897693 36 2, £4.95

Uzbekistan: The Golden Road to Samarkand Calum Macleod and Bradley Mayhew Hong Kong: Odyssey Guides/London: Hi Marketing Ltd/Lincolnwood, Illinois, US: Odyssey Passport, 1997, 328 pp, Illus, £14.95, A$29.95

Bihzad: Master of Persian Painting Ebadollah Bahari London: I. B. Tauris, 1996, 272 pp, index, illus. £65

Traditional Jewelry of India Oppi Untracht London: Thames and Hudson, New York: Harry N. Abrams, Inc, 1977, 431 pp., Illus, Biblio, Index, £55

Security Politics in the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Southern Belt Mehdi Mozaffari (ed.) New York: St. Martin's Press, 1997, xiv, 234 pp., £42.60

Minorities, Mullahs and Modernity: Reshaping Community in the Former Soviet Union Mark Saroyan (Edward W. Walker, ed.), with Gail W. Lapidus Berkeley, California: International and Area Studies, Research Series, No. 95, 1997, 231 pp., $22.95

Energy Choices in the Near Abroad: The Haves and Have‐Nots Face the Future Robert E. Ebel Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997, VII, 376 pp., $39.95     

Book reviews

Daniel Pipes, Greater Syria: the History of an Ambition. New York: Oxford University Press, 1990, viii, 240 pp.

Roger Zetter (Ed.), The Odyssey of the Pontic Greeks. Oxford University Press/Refugee Studies Programme, Oxford, 1991, 111 pp., Illus. Maps.

Nikki R. Keddie and Beth Baron (Eds), Women in Middle Eastern History. Shifting Boundaries in Sex and Gender. Yale University Press, New Haven and London, 1991, 343 pp., $35/£19.95.

John L. Esposito, Islam: the Straight Path. Oxford University Press, New York, 1991, xvi + 251 pp., $21.95.

Joyce N. Wiley, The Islamic Movement of Iraqi Shias. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder and London 1922. ix + 193 pp., N.P.

Joel Gordon, Nasser's Blessed Movement: Egypt's Free Officers and the July Revolution, Oxford University Press: New York and Oxford, 1992, vii + 254.

Jo‐Ann Gross (Ed.), Muslims in Central Asia: Expressions of Identity and Change, Duke University Press: Durham, 1992, xiv, 224 pp, $39.95, PB $18.95.

Louise L'Estrange Fawcett, Iran and the Cold War: the Azerbaijan Crisis of 1946, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 1922, XII, 227 pp., $34.95.

Mark J. Gasiorowski, U.S. Foreign Policy and the Shah: Building a Client State in Iran, Cornell University Press: Ithaca, N.Y 1992, xvi, 242 pp. $35.00.

Robert A. Lewis (Ed.), Geographic Perspectives on Soviet Central Asia, Routledge: London, 1992, XVIII, 323 pp., $69.50 U.S., $87.50 Canada.