The role of DNA in criminal indictments in Israel

In their investigations of criminal cases, law enforcement agencies rely heavily on forensic evidence. Numerous studies have examined the scientific and technological advancements of DNA testing, but little evidence exists on how the availability of DNA evidence influences prosecutors' decisions to move cases forward in the criminal justice system. We created a new database by juxtaposing data from the Forensics Division of the Israel Police, which recorded the presence (or not) of DNA profiles in criminal cases (n = 9862), and data on the indictment decision for each case (2008–2019). Rates of indictments are computed for each case, and trend lines are used to present variations in the rates of indictment decisions with and without DNA profiles. Approximately 15% of all criminal cases without DNA presented to the prosecutor's office are subsequently prosecuted, compared with nearly 55% of cases with DNA profiles. The presence of DNA evidence influences the prosecutor's decision to move a case forward in the criminal justice system. Utilizing a scientific approach to prosecute offenders is a welcome development; however, DNA evidence is not infallible, and caution must be exercised in regard to DNA's overuse in the legal system.     

When Threat Mobilizes: Immigration Enforcement and Latino Voter Turnout

Immigration enforcement, and deportation in particular, has been shown to have social and psychological effects on the non-deported as well, but its political effects have gone largely unexamined. I use the staggered implementation of Secure Communities, an information-sharing program between the federal government and local law enforcement, to estimate the short-term effects of stricter immigration enforcement on Latino voter turnout. A difference-in-differences analysis indicates that enrollment in Secure Communities led to an increase in county-level Latino voter turnout of 2–3 percentage points. This relatively large effect appears due to greater Latino activism in the wake of program implementation, rather than individuals responding to particular police interactions. These results extend the existing literature on mobilization in response to threat, demonstrate that policies can have far-reaching and unexpected political implications, and suggest that the current immigration debate may have major consequences for the future makeup of the American electorate.     

Proximal and Distal Effects of Sensation Seeking and Parenting Environments on Alcohol Use Trajectories from Early Adolescence to Early Adulthood

Adolescent alcohol use is related to disinhibition traits and family environments. However, research is scarce on whether these factors predict alcohol use trajectories distally, from early adolescence into early adulthood. We examined whether sensation seeking and parenting environments in early adolescence predicted adolescents’ alcohol use trajectories proximally (middle-adolescence) and distally (early adulthood). Using four waves of data from 345 adolescents (51.3% female; 80% white) and their primary caregivers, we estimated adolescents’ alcohol use trajectories and examined variability in these by sensation seeking and parental control. The findings revealed distal, positive associations between sensation seeking and alcohol use; and negative, proximal associations between parental control and alcohol use. Also proximally, there was a significant interaction between sensation seeking and parental control. We discuss implications for theory and practice.     

Evidence-Fabricating in Asymmetric Conflicts: How Weak Actors Prove False Propaganda Narratives

As part of their common efforts to undermine public support for their militarily-stronger adversaries' war efforts, insurgents and other militarily weak actors often accuse governments of fighting in a brutal manner and of committing brutal acts such as deliberately targeting innocent civilians. While sometimes there is sufficient evidence to support this claim of the government's deliberate brutality, other times militarily-weak actors will lack sufficient evidence to support this allegation. In such situation of lack of evidence, instead of making only those minimal allegations which can still be support by existing available facts, some weak actors decide nevertheless to make unsubstantiated claims and resort to fabricating the necessary evidence. This behavior presents a challenge not only for many counterinsurgent governments but also for the larger international community (most notably by diverting attention away from real atrocities). We identify some of the most common evidence-forging techniques recently employed by weak actors designed to create the factual basis to support of their chosen (often false) narratives of government brutality. The study also discusses some implications for international actors to prevent rewarding faking of atrocities.     

Uneven Ground: Nationalist Frames and the Variable Salience of Homeland

When are domestic publics most sympathetic to nationalist territorial ambitions? Conflict scholars commonly assume support should be greatest when territory is framed as being of intangible value to national identity over tangible importance to national security and economic prosperity. This should be especially true regarding lost homelands, territories wherein a state has previously exercised sovereignty and to which it has enduring ethnic ties. This article presents experimental evidence that directly challenges these assumptions, demonstrating the variability of Serbian popular attachments to three lost territories: Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro. It finds that intangible framings do not necessarily engender stronger assertions that such territories belong to the homeland than tangible framings do. Nor do they necessarily motivate greater support for nationalist territorial agendas. These findings cast doubt on conventional wisdom regarding domestic publics' contributions to territorial conflict and offer refined insights regarding in which instances intangible claims are most conflict-prone.     

The Role of State-Sponsored Militias in Genocide

This article explains how and why armed, non-state actors collaborate with states to inflict massive levels of violence. Regime type and state capacity interact to provide state elites a menu of repertoires for implementing violence, some emphasizing direct state action, others emphasizing cooperation and alliance between state and armed, non-state actors. Rather than struggling in vain to build strong states to eliminate armed non-state actors and establish a monopoly over the use of force, averting genocide might necessitate recruiting and strengthening the power of indigenous, armed non-state actors.