Cultural Penetration and Punctuated Policy Change: Explaining the Evolution of U.S. Energy Policy

Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) suggests that the policy process is characterized by long periods of incremental change and short periods of punctuated change. The impetus for the latter is usually a focusing event that breaks open policy monopolies, allowing for major changes in legislative decision making. While a burgeoning body of literature, a shortcoming in the PET literature is that it has yet to explain why focusing events and subsequent breakdowns in policy monopolies sometimes fail to result in punctuated policy. We integrate theories on cultural change with punctuated equilibrium to explain why focusing events do not always result in the dramatic policy changes that we might expect. Specifically, we use the context of national energy policy and the lexical database, Google Ngram Viewer, to trace punctuating energy‐related events and the occurrence or lack thereof subsequent policy change from 1952 to 2000.     

Money, Time, and Political Knowledge: Distinguishing Quick Recall and Political Learning Skills

Surveys provide widely cited measures of political knowledge. Do seemingly arbitrary features of survey interviews affect their validity? Our answer comes from experiments embedded in a representative survey of over 1200 Americans. A control group was asked political knowledge questions in a typical survey context. Treatment groups received the questions in altered contexts. One group received a monetary incentive for answering the questions correctly. Another was given extra time. The treatments increase the number of correct answers by 11–24%. Our findings imply that conventional knowledge measures confound respondents' recall of political facts with variation in their motivation to exert effort during survey interviews. Our work also suggests that existing measures fail to capture relevant political search skills and, hence, provide unreliable assessments of what many citizens know when they make political decisions. As a result, existing knowledge measures likely underestimate people's capacities for informed decision making.     

Negotiation,politics, and management

Book reviews in this article:
Samuel B. Bacharach and Edward J. Lawler , Power and Politics in Organizations: The Social Psychology of Conflict, Coalitions, and Bargaining .
Max H. Bazerman and Roy J. Lewicki , eds., Negotiating in Organizations .
Jeffrey Pfeffer , Power in Organizations .     

Police demilitarisation: cops,soldiers and democracy

Arthur Costa is a PhD candidate at the University of Brasilia, Brazil. His forthcoming book is entitled Transição e Tutela: Militares e Políticos na Nova República. Mateus Medeiros was Co-ordinator of the Office for Human Rights of the City of Belo Horizonte and a lecturer in legal philosophy at the Federal University of Ouro Preto, Brazil. He is now a legislative analyst at the Human Rights Commission, Brazilian Chamber of Deputies.¹     

NATURAL HAZARD LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES: A PUBLIC PROBLEM

Using arisk analysis and evaluation approach, the authors estimate losses from nine major natural hazards in the United States. The data show that these probable losses exceed those of many other national social problems, including fire and crime. The article also examines geographic and social distributions of estimated losses. States in the upper quartile of hazard exposure are likely to account for 50 percent of the increase in dollar losses over the next 30 years. Consistent with prior research, the most dependent segments of the population (poor, elderly, non-white) will proportionately suffer the most. While policy options pose inherently difficult choices, many promising avenues have yet to be fully explored.