Can We Identify Bad Cops Based on History? Base Rates of Historical Markers in Law Enforcement Pre-employment Evaluations

While psychometric police selection processes have progressively evolved, the efficacy of simple background information has not been extensively evaluated. This study examined the utility of base rate information to predict job performance among law enforcement officers. Pre-employment historical markers from bad hires were compared to good hires from a large sample of 1536 officers. Of this sample, 205 officers were categorized as bad hires if they were arrested, had greater than five misconduct episodes, or were terminated for cause within 5 years following hire. Base rates of 40 pre-employment history variables were compared for good and bad hires. Analysis of markers showed that bad hires had a significantly higher frequency of markers across family factors, mental health variables, conduct problems, and criminal justice outcomes compared to good hires. Among the largest differences were history of multiple physical altercations, outpatient psychiatric treatment, and events related to previous law enforcement employment such as employer reprimands, suspensions, or fitness for duty evaluations. Many other intuitive markers occurred too infrequently to analyze or showed no significant difference between good hires and bad hires in law enforcement settings. Base rates in addition to psychological test data are necessary aspects of the police pre-employment evaluation.     

Crime in the 2016 Presidential Election: a new era?

Issues pertaining to crime and criminal justice have long been part of presidential campaigns. Voters want to know how candidates plan to solve the problem of crime and keep them safe. In turn, candidates respond to voters’ concerns and describe their crime control ideas in hopes of increasing voter support. In doing so, they often rely on symbolic statements that provide little detail but make people “feel good”. This study analyzes the criminal justice rhetoric used by the three major presidential candidates in the 2016 election cycle to determine what issues they discussed and how often. The analysis also examines if candidates relied on symbolic statements, and how the issues were debated between the candidates. The findings show that the issues discussed were somewhat different than in previous years, and that the candidates relied on symbolic statements about crime – a change from the previous election cycle. Additionally, the candidates used crime control as a way to reach out to voters in their own political party, suggesting an interesting shift in how issues of criminal justice are being approached within elections.     

Global international relations and the Arab Spring: the Maghreb’s challenge to the EU

Abstract

This article contributes to the Global International Relations project by critically evaluating the roles ascribed to Europe and the EU by Levitsky and Way in their model for explaining regime transitions. Focusing primarily on their international dimensions of linkage and leverage, it assesses both the normative geopolitical underpinnings and explanatory power of their thesis, drawing on the North African cases of Tunisia and Mauritania at the start of the Arab Spring to illustrate and substantiate its observations and arguments. It concludes that the EU’s failure to discipline either country’s competitive authoritarian regime raises important questions about the validity of the privileged role in which they cast Europe.     

Bound feet: How sexy were they?

In lore and literature, footbinding is thought to have been maintained by its erotic attraction for Chinese men. Interviews with hundreds of living village and small-town women who were footbound in their childhood prove this to be an unsustainable myth. In addition to my extensive fieldwork in many Chinese regions, graphic and portable erotic art, and classical erotic novels all reveal a low level of sexual attentiveness to bound feet and shoes even among the literate. Since most commoner marriages were arranged by parents, and since Chinese mothers-in-law were unlikely to seek sexually distracting brides for their sons, it is clear that while Chinese culture produced some bound foot fetishists, the erotic aspect of the practice was of minimal, if any, importance to the huge population of ordinary couples. This finding clears the way for more effective explanations of its remarkable endurance and spread.     

Myths about tigers: Indonesian development policy debates

This paper assesses some of the major policy debates currently occurring in Indonesia. It is argued that, while Indonesia's economic performance over the past 30 years has been very good, some of these debates are centred on misleading or irrelevant 'myths' which may have adverse policy consequences. There is some evidence that the reform momentum has slowed in the past few years, while other pressing policy challenges have not been addressed with the vigour evident in the 1980s. Debate over these myths may therefore be contributing to a somewhat less coherent policy regime, just as the country is wrestling with post-Soeharto succession scenarios.     

Research on African Women since 1972: A Commentary

This article discusses several problematic aspects of the call for reparations to Africa for the slave trade. The call for reparations is based on questionable interpretations of international law, and questionable interpretations of history. There are debates regarding both the numbers of slaves, and the characteristics of slavery, in the Americas, the Arab world, and Africa itself, which influence consideration of whether reparations are justified. There are also debates regarding both the contribution of the trans-Atlantic slave trade to Western development, and how the trade under-developed Africa. Thus, the call for reparations is heavily based on a counterfactual approach. Nevertheless, serious discussion of whether the West owes reparations to Africa for the slave trade might deflect the future consequences of political resentment of the West in Africa.     

Predicting motor vehicle crash involvement from a personality measure and a driving knowledge test

Typically, safety‐related driver education programs are aimed at changing knowledge of vehicle operation rules and regulations. However, vehicle crashes are as likely to be related to driver personality variables as they are to the knowledge of vehicle operation and rules and regulations. In a study with 48 licensed drivers, crashes were found to be significantly correlated with conscientiousness, a five‐factor model personality dimension, but not with scores on a driving knowledge test. It would appear that prevention efforts should also be directed at changing conscientiousness‐related behaviors, including an emphasis on goal‐setting, and following rules and regulations.