Social Science and the Public Interest

Social Science and the Public Interest

Social Science and the Public Interest May/June 2011     

Bayesian Approaches for Limited Dependent Variable Change Point Problems

e-mail: spln{at}mail.rochester.edu Limited dependent variable (LDV) data are common in politicalscience, and political methodologists have given much good adviceon dealing with them. We review some methods for LDV "changepoint problems" and demonstrate the use of Bayesian approachesfor count, binary, and duration-type data. Our applicationsare drawn from American politics, Comparative politics, andInternational Political Economy. We discuss the tradeoffs bothphilosophically and computationally. We conclude with possibilitiesfor multiple change point work. Author's note: This paper is a revised version of my "second-yearpaper" presented to the department in September 2005, and Ithank attendees for feedback. For comments on an earlier draft,I am grateful to Kevin Clarke, David Firth, Jeff Gill, KosukeImai, Tasos Kalandrakis, Andrew Martin, Kevin Quinn, Curt Signorino,Randy Stone, and two anonymous referees. Any remaining errorsand omissions remain mine and mine alone.     

U.S. Treaty Making with American Indians: Institutional Change and Relative Power, 1784–1911

Native Americans are unique among domestic actors in that their relations with the U.S. government involve treaty making, with almost 600 such documents signed between the Revolutionary War and the turn of the twentieth century. We investigate the effect of constitutional changes to the treating process in 1871, by which Congress stripped the president of his ability to negotiate directly with tribes. We construct a comprehensive new data set by digitizing all of the treaties for systematic textual analysis. Employing scaling techniques validated with word‐use information, we show that a single dimension characterizes the treaties as more or less “harsh” in land and resource cession terms. We find that specific institutional changes to treaty‐making mechanisms had little effect on agreement outcomes. Rather, it is the relative bargaining power of the United States economically and militarily that contributes to worsening terms for Indians over the nineteenth century.     

Profiling of illicit fentanyl using UHPLC-MS/MS

Methodology is presented for the profiling of fentanyl in seized drugs using ultra high performance liquid chromatography in combination with tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). Target analysis was performed for 40 fentanyl processing impurities, several of which are markers for a specific synthetic route (Siegfried or Janssen). For the separation of these solutes, an Acquity BEH C18 1.7 μm particle column (150 mm × 2.1 mm) with a binary 1% formic acid (pH 2.0)/acetonitrile gradient was used. For MS/MS detection, an atmospheric pressure positive electrospray source was employed with selected reaction monitoring (SRM). The coupling of the high separation power of UHPLC with the highly selective and sensitive detection of MS/MS is amenable to the determination of synthetic route and linking of drug seizures. The technology is also applicable to exhibits containing trace levels of fentanyl in the presence of significantly excess amounts of heroin and/or adulterants.     

A review of blunt force injury homicides of children aged 0 to 5 years in bexar county, Texas, from 1988 to 2009

ABSTRACT: It is essential that clinical physicians, medical personnel, medical examiners, and law enforcement agencies understand the types of injuries seen and demographics of children affected by intentional blunt force as this understanding can be crucial to the death and/or criminal investigations. An understanding of the injuries can also assist in drawing conclusions regarding how those injuries could have been sustained. This study discusses the types and patterns of injuries seen in blunt force homicides in children younger than 6 years. The study found that male infants are more often intentionally injured than are female infants and that fatal head injuries most frequently occur in the first year of life, whereas most fatal thoracoabdominal injuries occur in the first 3 years of life. In children with head injuries, subdural hemorrhage was the most common finding, followed by subarachnoid hemorrhage. In 2.5% of deaths due to head injury, concurrent neck injury was seen, a percentage far lower than previous literature would suggest if shaking was the primary mechanism of injury. Twelve legal confessions were also reviewed, none of which disclosed a pure mechanism of shaking the infant.     

Sharing the Fruit of Labor: Flexible Application of Justice Principles in an Ultimatum Game with Joint-Production

Individuals often need to negotiate how to distribute jointly produced goods—equally (e.g., 50:50) or equitably (e.g., proportionally to their contributions). We examined whether people have stable preferences, or whether they switch between equality and equity in different situations. Pairs of anonymous participants first produced a common pie, and then distributed it in an ultimatum game. Results suggest that individuals apply different justice principles depending on their contribution. When they produced less than 50%, proposers divided the pie equally. However, when they produced more than 50%, their offers fell between equality and equity. Responders’ ratings of fairness and satisfaction varied similarly; with low production, equality was preferred, whereas with high production, equity was preferred. Nevertheless, equal and equitable offers were generally accepted, and only outright unfair offers were rejected. This suggests that individuals are relatively flexible about which justice principle should be applied, but punish proposers whose offers violate both principles.     

Intimate Partner Abuse among African American Lesbians: Prevalence, Risk Factors, Theory, and Resilience

The purpose of this article is to present an intersectionality-based model for conceptualizing the risk factors associated with intimate partner abuse (IPA) among African American lesbians. The available literature on prevalence and risk factors associated with IPA suggests that: (a) estimates of prevalence rates for African American lesbian IPA could range from 25?% to 40?%, with the higher end of the range representing the inclusion of nonphysical forms of abuse (i.e., verbal abuse, intimidation, and coercion); and (b) the risk factors most likely to be associated with IPA for this population include poverty, history of trauma and mental health symptoms (including substance abuse), in addition to distress caused by multiple and intersecting forms of oppression (i.e., racialized, classist sexism and heterosexism). The model demonstrates the manner in which all of these risk factors intersect to create disproportionately high risk for this underresearched and underserved population. A psychodynamically based model is also presented that illustrates the cycle of abuse within an African American lesbian relationship. Finally, a model depicting the most likely protective factors segues into a brief concluding discussion about the implications for intervention, prevention, policy, education, and future research.     

Federal democracy,distributive justice and the future of Europe

Discussions pertaining to advancing strategic policies and democracy in the EU cannot afford to disregard a fundamental institutional dilemma of the EU's political system, the conflict between intense interdependence and power sharing in a multilevel polity for one, and autonomy of governments as a condition for democratic legitimacy of power for another. Conceiving the EU as a federal democracy draws attention to this dilemma. This concept suggests democracy-preserving modes of governance instead of coercive coordination (policy adjustment to competition in the common market, joint decision-making among governments, central regulation by law and court decisions), which so far predominate in most relevant policy fields. It also calls for procedures to cope with issues of distributive justice stemming from territorial disparities in resources and burdens. The article conceptualises these challenges and outlines feasible steps to advance federal democracy in the EU.     

Democracy,property rights and economic growth

What does the global surge in democracy and capitalism portend for economic growth? The shift toward popular government is predicted by some to accelerate growth, by others to retard it. Often left out of the equation is property rights as a factor distinct from democratic rule. Using recent data on 59 less developed and transitional countries, this article explores the relationship among institutional factors and growth in the 1980s and early 1990s. Democratic freedoms and property rights are associated with the dependent variable, suggesting that national income in poor countries stands to gain from recent efforts to implant these institutions.