A TEST OF LATENT TRAIT VERSUS LIFECOURSE PERSPECTIVES ON THE STABILITY OF ADOLESCENT ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR*

Latent trait and life-course theories provide contrasting interpretations of the well-established finding that childhood antisocial behavior often precedes adolescent conduct problems and adult crime. Longitudinal data from 179 boys and their parents were used to test hypotheses derived from the two theoretical perspectives. The findings largely supported the life-course view. Oppositional behavior during late childhood predicted reductions in quality of parenting and school commitment and increased affiliation with deviant peers. These changes, in turn, predicted conduct problems during early adolescence. Although there was a moderately strong bivariate correlation between childhood antisocial behavior and adolescent conduct problems, there was no longer an association between these constructs when the effects of parenting, school, and peers were taken into account. Further, there was evidence that improved parenting, increased school commitment, or reduced affiliation with deviant peers lowered the probability that boys who were oppositional during childhood would graduate to delinquency and drug use during adolescence. Together, these findings suggest that the correlation between childhood and adolescent deviant behavior reflects a developmental process rather than a latent antisocial trait.     

THE JUVENILE PENALTY: A COMPARISON OF JUVENILE AND YOUNG ADULT SENTENCING OUTCOMES IN CRIMINAL COURT*

This study uses criminal court data from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing (PCS) to investigate the sentencing of juvenile offenders processed in adult criminal court by comparing their sentencing outcomes to those of young adult offenders in similar situations. Because the expanded juvenile exclusion and transfer policies of the 1990s have led to an increase in the number of juveniles convicted in adult courts, we argue that it is critical to better understand the judicial decision making processes involved. We introduce competitive hypotheses on the relative leniency or severity of sentencing outcomes for transferred juveniles and interpret our results with the focal concerns theoretical perspective on sentencing. Our findings indicate that juvenile offenders in adult court are sentenced more severely than their young adult counterparts. Moreover, findings suggest that juvenile status interacts with and conditions the effects of other important sentencing factors including offense type, offense severity and prior criminal record. We discuss these results as they relate to immediate outcomes for transferred juveniles, criminal court processes in general and the broader social implications for juvenile justice policy concerning the transfer of juveniles to criminal court.     

Minority Voting Equality: The 65 Percent Rule in Theory and Practice

In order to provide minorities with a realistic opportunity to elect candidates of their choice, an apparently obvious step is to create districts in which the minority equals half the population. A number of factors, however, make this a false equality. As a consequence, courts have used a "65 percent" rule, suggesting that equality of the voting population is achieved only when the overall population of a district is nearly two-thirds minority. We distinguish between this "equalization percentage" and the percentage needed to create a "safe" seat. We show that for blacks "equalization percentages": 1) are almost never as high as 65 percent; 2) vary widely across time and space; 3) have declined somewhat in the 1980s; 4) vary sharply between primaries and general elections; 5) are affected most heavily by the proportion of minority populations that is of voting age (or noncitizen) rather than by differences in registration and turnout. Election results further caution us that even when numerical equality in the voting population is appropriately calculated, such a population proportion is not always sufficient to elect minority candidates because of incumbency effects and differentially polarized voting. We argue that both packing blacks into overwhelmingly black districts and ignoring less tangible factors that hinder black electoral success are extremes to be avoided.     

THE ROLE OF PEERS IN THE COMPLEX ETIOLOGY OF ADOLESCENT DRUG USE*

The role of peers in adolescent drug use is analyzed by integrating differential association and situational group pressure notions with propositions derived from social bond theory. The resultant causal model is tested for self-reported use of alcohol, cigarettes, marijuana, amphetamines, and depressants. The model explains 49% of the variation in combined drug use among 768 adolescents. The variables from social learning traditions have the strongest effects in the model, but associations with drug-using parents or with prodrug definitions received from parents or friends have far less impact on drug use than do associations with drug-using friends per se. It is argued that differential association with situational pressure to join others in drug use may be more relevant to adolescent drug use than are social bonds or differential association with a ratio of prodrug to antidrug definitions.     

The “Totality of Circumstances Test” in Section 2 of the 1982 Extension of the Voting Rights Act: A Social Science Perspective*

We discuss uses of social science definitions and research methods in judging compliance with the recently modified language of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. That Act now specifies a “totality of circumstances” effects lest for the existence of racial vote dilution. There are seven “typical” factors listed by the Senate Committee on the Judiciary in its report on the 1982 Voting Rights extension as among those which may be used to establish a Section 2 violation. Because of the nature of these factors, extensive (and often conflicting) testimony by social scientists has now become an inescapable feature of Section 2 litigation. We focus particular attention on one of the seven factors, racially polarized voting, because measurement of it is, as judged by recent litigation, the most controversial, the most complex, and the most important. We also discuss at some length another factor, racial campaign appeals, which also raises issues of appropriate definition and measurement. The aim of this paper is to contribute to a standardization of terminology and operationalization in an important public policy area, and to show how social science methodology can assist legal fact-finding.     

Nigerian Constitutional Proposals

Proposals for drastic constitutional reform in Nigeria wereissued at the beginning of March in the form of a white paper(Cmd. 6599, price 3d.) combining a historical introduction drawnup in the colonial Office and a despatch from Sir Arthur Richards,dated the 6th December. The proposals include a general schemeto bridge the gap between the Native Authorities and the centreby the creation of three new Regional Councils with headquartersat Kaduna, Ibadan and Enugu. The Northern Council is to consistof a House of Chiefs (24) and a House of Assembly (39); thereis to be a Western Assembly of 29; and an Eastern Assembly of27. These regional councils are to have unofficial majorities,mainly selected from existing Native Authorities by themselves.They will have the right to discuss all general legislation,and to pass their own regional budgets, which, subject to approvalfrom the Governor, will be passed by a block vote at the centre.At the same time each Regional Centre will have an AdministrativeHeadquarters, largely decentralised from Lagos, whose departmentalheads will there have Deputies. Finally, the Councils will actas electoral colleges to the central Council, which is alsoto have an unofficial majority (25 to 24), and which will legislatefor the whole of Nigeria (with a budget session held in rotationat the four main centres). Other details include a Supreme Courtfor the whole of Nigeria, and a reorganisation in the Colonyof Lagos, whose urban limits are to become a municipality. Thescheme is proposed for 9 years with reviews of the system ofdirect nomination at the end of the 3rd and possibly the 6th. The proposals, which as Sessional Paper No. 4 were passed unanimouslyin the Nigerian Legislature on 22nd March, have still to bediscussed in the British Parliament. They are here consideredby a former Governor, and a former Lieut-Governor. It was hopedto have comments from Nigeria itself, where there has been considerableunofficial criticism, but this has had to be held over.