Silent witness: Australian intelligence and East Timor

The events in East Timor leading up to and immediately following the vote for independence from Indonesia in September 1999, and the attendant breach in Australian-Indonesian relations, posed the greatest challenge to the Australian intelligence agencies and the national security policymaking organization in more than a quarter of a century. On the whole, the intelligence agencies performed very well, producing timely, accurate and informative reports, with the important exception being the under-estimation of the scale of the killings and forced deportations in the fortnight after 4 September, 1999. However, there were serious deficiencies in the national security policy-making organization, and elements of the intelligence community succumbed to political pressures when the Government found some of the intelligence about Indonesian involvement in planning and directing the violence to be unpalatable.     

Some Lessons from Using PFI for School Building Projects

This article describes some lessons gained from observing the developments of PFI projects for provision of school buildings. The research, which was primarily based on participant observation methodology, aims to identify key issues relevant to the effective management of such projects. It also attempts to investigate ways in which the PFI process may be changing in this area. Issues covered in the research include motivation, staffing, ownership of the asset, innovation, local democracy and various financial matters. It is observed that some changes in practice in employing the PFI in this area have tended to move it back in the direction of conventional procurement.     

Opposition backlash and platform convergence in a spatial voting model with campaign contributions

This paper investigates the effects of campaign contributions on candidate behavior in elections. The particular focus is on how candidates choose their platforms when they know that the positions they take will influence the level of campaign contributions that they (and their opponents) receive from concerned interest groups. The analysis is carried out in the context of a simple one- dimensional spatial voting model with two candidates and two interest groups. Since the earliest Hotelling-Downs formulations, a central issue in the literature on spatial voting has been the degree to which, under various sets of assumptions, the candidates' platforms converge in equilibrium. This paper extends that literature by examining how the introduction of interest groups making campaign contributions affects the degree of platform convergence. The paper shows that when choosing their platforms, candidates face a trade-off between generataing increased support from opponents and provoking a backlash from the opposition. An example is developed to illustrate a surprising result that can occur because of the backlash effect: the introduction of two extremist interest groups may lead the candidates to moderate their platforms, resulting in a greater degree of platform convergence than would be observed in the absence of any campaign contributions.     

New Zealand's public sector management reform: Implications for the United States

This article describes the reforms to the functions of central government in New Zealand that have been introduced since 1985. It sketches the political and economic situation which motivated the changes to the systems of public management. Some of the theoretical influences that provided insights to the advice given to the government by its officials are noted. The essential elements of the system are described briefly. The results are summarized in terms of how the ideas were implemented, the extent of their acceptance, the impact on managerial behavior, and the effects on government in terms of the objectives that were originally set out. Some tentative suggestions are made regarding the messages that might be drawn from the New Zealand experience that are relevant to the reforms of the government of the United States.     

Dual‐indexed mortgages in reforming socialist economies: Evaluating the risks and institutional requirements

Abstract

Although housing finance systems in reforming socialist economies have attempted to increase their market orientation, the high inflation rates accompanying the reform process have introduced new distortions. Mortgage instruments designed for high‐inflation economies, such as the dual‐indexed mortgage (DIM), can reduce these distortions. However, the introduction of new financial instruments should not be undertaken lightly. Both the performance of the instruments under various macroeconomic conditions and the technical requirements for implementation must be examined carefully.

Such an analysis was performed for the hypothetical introduction of a DIM in Hungary. In the Hungarian example, the risks of losses on a DIM portfolio are minimal and are considerably less than the risk faced by traditional fixed‐rate mortgages. An examination of the institutional and technical issues associated with the DIM shows that reforming socialist economies face special difficulties. In the Hungarian case, as the structure of the economy changes, the accuracy of traditional methodologies for gathering government statistics, and therefore the accuracy of the indices, declines. Lenders have delayed implementation of the instrument for this reason. Lenders in other reforming socialist economies should take such risks into account and should, at the very least, adjust their underwriting standards to account for such risks. In the long run, reconstruction of the government statistical system should alleviate this problem.