Predicting Technology Success: Identifying Key Predictors and Assessing Expert Evaluation for Advanced Technologies

This study investigates a set of precursor factors that appear related to future technology success, and whether or not expert evaluators can a priori provide useful information during the technology review process. Sixty-nine highly advanced post 9–11 technologies are tracked over time. Based upon the results of this study, we conclude that a reasonably good predictive model can be constructed from organizational and technology factors, such as firm size, stage of development, and strategic partnerships. The results also indicate that the incremental value of expert reviewers and technology evaluators to predict future technology success is relatively small. Reviewers that provided the greatest predicative power, however, had current scientific responsibilities. These results raise important issues regarding the capability of developing predictive models of technology success.      

Mercy, death, and politics: An analysis of executions and commutations in New York State, 1935–1963

This study focuses on the 249 executions and the 49 commutations not based upon any policy per se of the New York State governors between the years 1935 and 1963. Clemency is an inherently political decision. Therefore, it is expected that groups which are disfavored or viewed as dangerous (blacks, males, felony murderers, and non-youthful offenders) will register higher execution rates than favored groups. Contingency tables and logistic regression analyses offer partial support in that offender race and age are significantly related to final disposition. A draft of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Chicago, IL, 1996. The authors would like to thank Bill Doerner, C. Loftin, A. Lizotte, J. Acker and four anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

Rezension

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The impact of foreign and state ownership on post-transition industrial concentration: the case of Polish manufacturing

This paper reports an analysis of the determinants of the level and changes in Polish industrial concentration in the early post-transition era. In particular, the relative effects of foreign and state ownership are examined. The empirical evidence is based on a panel of 144 Polish manufacturing industries over the period 1989–1993. The results suggest that both state and foreign ownership have a significant impact on industry concentration and this relationship is U-shaped. Minimum efficient scale is found to be the only other factor to impact on industry concentration.