Illusion or Intention? Talking Grand Strategy into Existence

Richard Betts argued that strategy—the idea that a state's political ends could be reliably linked to its coercive means—is a necessary illusion. Without strategy, war is mindless killing; but its rationales cannot guide state choices because there is a yawning gap between the macro level where strategy is articulated and the micro level of day-to-day choices. That gap is particularly insurmountable when beginning, as Betts does, from a rationalist model of action. I propose that grand strategy is best understood as a case of collective intentionality, a concept that amends the rationalist framework in a way that makes it possible to clarify an analytic pathway from grand strategy to state behavior. Crucial to this pathway are legitimation processes found in forums, and I argue that grand strategies can pull state behavior when they are tied to forums. Focusing on the interstate case, I develop a causal mechanism from the forum, to ways of talking, to commitment-consistent behavior. I illustrate the argument with an example from the Concert of Europe. Stacie E. Goddard and Ronald R. Krebs propose that legitimation processes might be particularly successful where institutions are weak. My framework helps flesh out that proposition: even in anarchy, action commitments can affect states’ behavior through the mechanisms of the forum.     

TrueAllele® Genotype Identification on DNA Mixtures Containing up to Five Unknown Contributors

Computer methods have been developed for mathematically interpreting mixed and low‐template DNA. The genotype modeling approach computationally separates out the contributors to a mixture, with uncertainty represented through probability. Comparison of inferred genotypes calculates a likelihood ratio (LR), which measures identification information. This study statistically examined the genotype modeling performance of Cybergenetics TrueAllele^® computer system. High‐ and low‐template DNA mixtures of known randomized composition containing 2, 3, 4, and 5 contributors were tested. Sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility were established through LR quantification in each of these eight groups. Covariance analysis found LR behavior to be relatively invariant to DNA amount or contributor number. Analysis of variance found that consistent solutions were produced, once a sufficient number of contributors were considered. This study demonstrates the reliability of TrueAllele interpretation on complex DNA mixtures of representative casework composition. The results can help predict an information outcome for a DNA mixture analysis.     

Investigating the Potential of Fluorescent Fingerprint Powders as a Marker for Blow Fly Larvae (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Four fluorescent fingerprint powders (RedWop^?, GreenWop^?, Basic Yellow^?, and Yellow Powder^?) were evaluated as a marker for blow fly larvae. Administration methods included ingestion (high vs. low concentration) or topical. Ingestion of high concentrations of Basic Yellow^? and RedWop^? caused higher larval mortality. Basic Yellow^? delayed development and adult emergence while RedWop^? and Yellow Powder^? had a significant effect on particular stages of development, however, emergence time was not altered. Optimal administration is through ingestion at low concentration levels (<10%) or topically, with GreenWop^? demonstrating minimal adverse effects. Optimum wavelength for discrimination between powders was 450 nm. This research can aid in investigative training to increase visibility of larval and pupal blow flies. It can also be used in entomological studies to differentiate between larval blow flies (or other dipteran) species or individuals to further understand complex interactions and behavior during larval development.     

The Democratic Contribution of Political Market Researchers

Although we know that candidates, parties and governments conduct political market research and engage in heated debate about it, market research in politics remains a largely hidden activity. This article presents the perspectives of practitioners involved in collecting and using market research including advisors to 11 presidents and prime ministers and demonstrates that market analysis in politics is a multi‐varied activity, carried out within a complex context. The over‐simplistic criticism that political marketing means politicians simply follow focus groups needs to be revised, and although poor practice will always occur, practitioners are developing more fluid and mature ways to utilize research in politics. Political market research can play a valuable role in informing the decisions politicians make and enhance the relationship between the government and the public. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Qualitative Differences Among Rural and Urban Intimate Violence Victimization Experiences and Consequences: A Pilot Study

Relatively little is known about rural women's intimate violence experiences in comparison to urban women's experiences, partly because of the difficulty in accessing rural women. This pilot study used a protective order sample of 23 women (15 urban and 8 rural), which provides an access point that is relatively similar for comparisons across rural and urban areas. The number of participants is low and, therefore, results are preliminary. However, several significant findings emerged. Rural women reported significantly less social support, less education, less income, more physical abuse in the preceding year, more childhood physical and sexual abuse, and worse overall health and mental health, as well as encountering abuse earlier in the relationship. Both groups reported higher rates of illegal drug and cigarette use than those among the general population. The findings highlight some overall important themes in examining rural and urban intimate violence victims by suggesting that rural and urban intimate violence victims have different victimization experiences and service needs. Implications for further research and intervention are discussed.     

Implementation Studies: Time for a Revival? Personal Reflections on 20 Years of Implementation Studies

This paper presents a review of three decades of implementation studies and is constructed in the form of a personal reflection. The paper begins with a reflection upon the context within which the book Policy and Action was written, a time when both governments and policy analysts were endeavouring to systematize and improve the public decision-making process and to place such decision-making within a more strategic framework. The review ends with a discussion about how public policy planning has changed in the light of public services reform strategies. It is suggested that as a result of such reforms, interest in the processes of implementation have perhaps been superseded by a focus upon change management and performance targets. It is further argued that this has resulted in the reassertion of normative, top-down processes of policy implementation. The paper raises points that are important ones and indeed are reflected throughout all four papers in the symposium issue. These are: (1) the very real analytical difficulties of understanding the role of bureaucratic discretion and motivation; (2) the problem of evaluating policy outcomes; and (3) the need to also focus upon micro political processes that occur in public services organizations. In conclusion, the paper emphasizes the continued importance of implementation studies and the need for policy analysts to understand what actually happens at policy recipient level.     

A Brief History of SPIDR on its 25th Anniversary

Negotiation Journal -