Inferring Transition Probabilities from Repeated Cross Sections

This paper discusses a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov modeldesigned to estimate entry and exit transition probabilitiesat the micro level from a time series of independent cross-sectionalsamples with a binary outcome variable. The model has its originsin the work of Moffitt and shares features with standard statisticalmethods for ecological inference. We outline the methodologicalframework proposed by Moffitt and present several extensionsof the model to increase its potential application in a widerarray of research contexts. We also discuss the relationshipwith previous lines of related research in political science.The example illustration uses survey data on American presidentialvote intentions from a five-wave panel study conducted by Pattersonin 1976. We treat the panel data as independent cross sectionsand compare the estimates of the Markov model with both dynamicpanel parameter estimates and the actual observations in thepanel. The results suggest that the proposed model providesa useful framework for the analysis of transitions in repeatedcross sections. Open problems requiring further study are discussed.     

大数据在应急管理中的应用

当前大数据正在改变世界,而数据收集和分析则是提升应急管理功能的重要手段。在对大数据内涵和具体案例进行分析后就会发现,大数据在应急管理中的应用主要有大数据技术和大数据思维两种方式。在应急管理的事前准备、事中响应和事后救援与恢复的每一阶段都可以引入大数据的应用,每个阶段对大数据的应用程度也会因其需要应对内容的不同而有所差别。大数据的应用有助于提高应急管理效率、节省成本和减少损失。我国需要在大数据战略、大数据开放政策、大数据在应急管理中具体应用形式等方面做出部署与探索。     

When Second‐Best is Still a No‐Brainer: Why Labour Should Shoot for a Majority Coalition in May 2015

The chances of Labour winning the 2015 general election with a comfortable overall majority are vanishingly small. It could, however, emerge as the largest party or finish just a handful of seats behind the Conservatives. Either scenario would give it at least a chance—and a bigger chance than many realise, we argue—of forming a government. In that event, Labour may be faced with a choice between getting together with another party (or parties) to form a majority coalition or else forming a minority government (either on its own or with one or more partners), which could assemble different majorities for different pieces of legislation or try to negotiate a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement. Given the precedents from the UK and overseas, we argue that, faced with this dilemma, Labour should do all it can to form a majority coalition. We also argue that Labour can learn some useful lessons from the Cameron–Clegg coalition.     

How Economic Empowerment Reduces Women’s Reproductive Health Vulnerability in Tanzania

This article uses data from Northern Tanzania to analyse how economic empowerment helps women reduce their reproductive health (RH) vulnerability. It analyses the effect of women’s employment and economic contribution to their household on health care use at three phases in the reproductive cycle: before pregnancy, during pregnancy and at child birth. Economic empowerment shows a positive effect on health seeking behaviour during pregnancy and at child birth, which remains robust after controlling for bargaining power and selection bias. This indicates that any policy that increases women’s economic empowerment can have a direct positive impact on women’s RH.     

On Marx's theory of agricultural rent: A rejoinder

This paper is about the relationship between power and subjectivity in a democracy, about the lines between subjectivity and subjection, democracy and despotism. The ability of the democratic citizen to generate a politically able self depends upon technologies of subjectivity which link personal goals and desires to social order and stability, which link power an subjectivity. I begin with the contemporary self-esteem movement spearheaded by feminist Gloria Steinem and California legislator John Vasconcellos to show that programs which attempt to enhance the subjectivity of women and the poor-strategies of empowerment, self-help, and democratic participation - are also practical techniques for the subjection of individuals. I go on to outline a history of the present ‘state of esteem’ beginning with the work of Alexis de Tocqueville. I locate the emergence of democratic self-governance in the advent of the social as a sphere of governability and expertise.     

Crisis in the Philippines Left: Implications for the Asia Pacific

The struggles of poor communities to negotiate development processes have been documented increasingly in recent years. However, recognition of the agency of the poor should not preclude attention to patterns of oppression that may be intensifying in the face of top-down development processes imposed by increasingly well co-ordinated elites. Examination of patterns of violence in border areas across the Greater Mekong Sub-region suggests that integration facilitates the collusion of state actors in the dispossession of the poor in a manner that is deleterious to ethnic minorities, internal migrants and other vulnerable populations. National political processes are not offering mechanisms by which such populations can seek to contest this trend.     

论经济法的共识

目前,中国经济法学界取得了以下共识:经济法是市场经济之法、经济法是调整市场监管(规制)关系和宏观调控关系的法律规范的总称、经济法体系由市场监管(规制)法和宏观调控法构成、经济法是社会本位之法、经济法是确认和规范国家干预之法、经济法是现代性之法、经济法是一个独立存在的法律部门.这些共识是经济法发展和完善的基础.     

Cloud computing and its implications for cybercrime investigations in Australia

The advent of cloud computing has led to a dispersal of user data across international borders. More than ever before, law enforcement investigations into cybercrime and online criminal activity require cooperation between agencies from multiple countries. This paper examines recent changes to the law in Australia in relation to the power of law enforcement agencies to effectively investigate cybercrime insofar as individuals and organisations make use of cloud infrastructure in connection with criminal activity. It concludes that effective law enforcement operations in this area require harmonious laws across jurisdictions and streamlines procedures for granting assistance between law enforcement agencies. In conjunction with these mechanical developments, this paper posits that law enforcement officers require a systematised understanding of cloud infrastructure and its operation in order to effectively make use of their powers.     

The politics of social welfare: MPs’ attitudes and activities in the 13th Israeli Knesset

This paper reports the findings of a study exploring the attitudes and activities of members of the 13th Israeli Knesset, and seeks possible connections between the two. The study involved extensive interviews with members of the 13th Israeli Knesset (1992–96), as well as drawing on archival and quantitative data of their activities. The paper presents a short overview of the Israeli political system, the 13th Israeli Knesset and its composition. The MKs’ perceptions of social welfare policy, their attitudes towards government involvement in the provision of social welfare services and their activities, both formal and informal, on social welfare issues are described. Finally, possible connections between the MKs’ attitudes and their activities are explored.