Treaty Commitment as a Signaling Device: Explaining the Ratification of the International Covenant on Economic,Social, and Cultural Rights

This study investigates the determinants of the ratification of International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (ICESCR). To do so, it proposes an explanation that postulates that states employ treaty ratification as a device to signal their resolve to implement polices required by the treaty at issue in order to appease demanding domestic constituencies, predicting that states with lower compliance capacity tend to commit faster than states with higher compliance capacity. Applying this explanation to the ICESCR leads to two expectations. First, the larger government spending a proxy of high compliance capacity is hypothesized to delay the ratification process. Second, states with the unitary system are expected to ratify the ICESCR more promptly because the centralized power structure in unitary states significantly restricts the pursuit of the policy autonomy by minorities at local level that the right to self-determination entails. The Cox proportional hazard analysis lends support to both hypotheses.     

Elections In Iraq – 30 January 2005: An Assessment

Divide and Lose. By Michael Ionides. Published by Geoffrey Bles. 1960. Pp. 271. Sources and index. 21s.

Nasser's New Egypt. By Keith Wheelock. Foreign Policy Research Institute No. 8. Praegar, New York. Pp. 326. $6.

Personal Column. By Sir Charles Belgrave. Hutchinson and Co., Ltd. Pp. 248. Map, illustrated, indexed. 30s.

Israel Resurgent. By Professor Norman Bentwich. Published by Ernest Benn, Ltd. 1960. Pp. 238. Map, index and bibliography. 27s.

Women and the New East. By Ruth Frances Woodsmall. The Middle East Institute, Washington, D.C. 1960. Pp. 436. Map, index, illustrations. $5.50.

Daughters of Allah. By Henny Harald Hansen. Translated from the Danish by Reginald Spink. George Allen and Unwin, London, 1960. 81½ × 6½ in. Pp. 190. Illustrations and sketch map. 21s.

Crossroads. Land and Life in South‐west Asia. By George B. Cressey. Lip‐pingcott Co., Chicago, New York, Philadelphia. 1960. 7 × 10 in. Pp. 593. Illustrations, maps, tables and charts. Index. $12.

The Chronicle of Petros di Sarkis Gilanentz. Concerning the Afghan invasion of Persia in 1722, the siege of Isfahan and the repercussions in Northern Persia, Russia and Turkey, translated from the original Armenian and annotated by C. O. Minasian, with an introduction and additional notes by L. Lockhart. Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Armenian Library, Lisbon. 1959. Pp. xxiii, 77. No price indicated.

The Sabres of Paradise. By Lesley Blanch. John Murray, London, 1960. Pp. 480. Illustrations, maps, bibliography, index. 30s.

The Politics of the Developing Areas. Editors : Gabriel A. Almand and James S. Coleman. Published by Princeton University Press and Oxford University Press. Pp. 576. Indexed. 80s.

The Memoirs of Lord Ismay. Heinemann. 1960. Pp. 464. Index, maps, diagrams. 4. net.

Karachi Through a Hundred Years. By Herbert Feldman. Published by the Oxford University Press. Pp. 238. Illustrated and indexed. 27s. 6d.

A Punjabi Village in Pakistan. By Zekiye Eglar. Columbia University Press and Oxford University Press, 1960. Pp. 240. Index, glossary, bibliography, illustrations. 48s.

The Mind of Mr. Nehru. By R. K. Karanjia. George Allen and Unwin, Ltd. 1960. Pp. 112. 10s. 6d. net.

Islands of the Marigold Sun. By Suresh Vaidya. Robert Hale, Ltd., London. Pp. 192. Map and illus. 18s. net.

Pilgrimage for Plants. By Frank Kingdon‐Ward. Published by Harrap. Pp. 180. Bibliography, index and illus. 18s.

Englishmen in Tibet from Bogle to Gould. By Sir Olaf Caroe. The Tibet Society of the United Kingdom. Pp. 12. Illus. 2s. 6d.

Tibet in Revolt. By George N. Patterson. Faber and Faber. Pp. 197. 18 Illustrations; map. 21s. net.

Britain and Chinese Central Asia. By Alastair Lamb. Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1960. Pp. 387. Sketch‐maps, index, bibliography. 42s.

The Way and the Mountain. By Marco Pallis. Peter Owen, Ltd., London. Pp. 216. Illus. and appendices. 30s.

Russia and China. By J. V. Davidson‐Houston. Robert Hale, Ltd., London, 1960. Pp. 200. Maps, index. Illus. 21s.

Les Mouvements Nationaux chez les Musulmans de Russie: le “Sultangaliev‐isme” au Tatarstan. By Alexandre Bennigsen and Chantai Quelquejay. Mouton and Co. Paris, 1960.

Neither War Nor Peace. By Hugh Seton‐Watson. Methuen and Co., London. 1960. Pp.504. 35s.

Soviet Foreign Policy, 1917–1941. By George F. Kennan. Van Nostrand, New York. 1960. Pp. 191. $1.25.

Özbekcha‐Ruscha Lughat/Uzbeksko‐Russkiy Slovar’. (Uzbek‐Russian Dictionary.) Compiled by the Academy of Sciences of the Uzbek S.S.R. Chief Editor, Professor A. K. Borovkov. State Dictionary Publishing House, Moscow. 1959. Pp. 839. 27 Rubles.

An Introduction to the Turkmen Language. By G. K. Dulling. Published by Central Asian Research Centre. Pp. 48. Price 15s.

The Economic Development of Communist China, 1949–1958. By T. J. Hughes and D. E. T. Luard. Issued under the auspices of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, O.U.P. 1959. Pp. 223. Maps and index. 22s. 6d.

Han Fei‐Tzu. Works from the Chinese. By W. K. Liao. Probsthain's Oriental Series, Vols. XXV and XXVI. U.N.E.S.C.O. Collection of Representative Works —Chinese Series. Pp. 309 and 338. 30s. and 42s. respectively.

Ballads and Stories from Tun‐Huang. By Arthur Waley. Published by George Allen and Unwin. Pp. 266. Index. 25s.     

Estimating Size of Drug Users in Macau: an Open Population Capture-Recapture Model with Data Augmentation Using Public Registration Data

Successful drug intervention policies rely on timely assessment of size of drug users and close monitoring of trend regarding drug abuse. Taking advantage of data collected by the Central Registration System for Drug Abusers of Macau (CRSDAM), this study applied open population capture-recapture models with data augmentation techniques to estimate the size of drug users and to identify influential factors on capture and survival probabilities from 2009 to 2014. In particular, the data augmentation technique was used to address missing data issues. The estimated size of drug users has been slowly declining from 2442 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2042–2914) in 2009 to 807 (95% BCI 654–1000) in 2014 with a small fluctuation of 2251 (95% BIC 1950–2599) in 2011, and the estimated cumulative size of drug users is 6199 (95% BCI 5651–6873), which is correspondent to a prevalence rate of 1.20% of the current population aged 15 to 54. Although the estimated sizes of total, narcotic, and other drug users were declining, the size of stimulant users might be increasing. People who used narcotics as their first drug and who were reported by governmental agencies were more likely to stay in the registration system, while those who used needle injection were less likely to stay. Governmental agencies, higher education, and using needle injection were negatively associated with the probability of capture over time, while using narcotics as the first drug was positively associated with it.