Secrets from the Edge

Brian Crozier, Free Agent. The Unseen War 1941–1991 (London: HarperCollins, 1993). Pp.xiv + 314. £16.99. ISBN 0–00–255192–6.

Gary Murray, Enemies of the State (London: Simon & Schuster, 1993). Pp.xx + 322. £16.99. ISBN 0–671–71194–6.

The Security Service (London: HMSO, 1993). Pp.36. £4.95. ISBN 0–11–3410875.     

Human rights dynamics of abortion law reform

The legal approach to abortion is evolving from criminal prohibition towards accommodation as a life-preserving and health-preserving option, particularly in light of data on maternal mortality and morbidity. Modern momentum for liberalization comes from international adoption of the concept of reproductive health, and wider recognition that the resort to safe and dignified healthcare is a major human right. Respect for women's reproductive self-determination legitimizes abortion as a choice when family planning services have failed, been inaccessible, or been denied by rape. Recognition of women's rights of equal citizenship with men requires that their choices for self-determination be legally respected, not criminalized.     

Public accounting fudges towards EMU: A first empirical survey and some public choice considerations

This paper analyses some one-off measures and other accounting tricks that EU member States have been using to qualify for EMU membership. Moving from empirical evidence to strategic goals, this investigation brings to the fore three crucial issues: the weakness of the methodological rules of the European system of accounts used to assess budgetary convergence in line with the Maastricht Treaty; the open-ended definition of the required budgetary discipline; the shortcomings of the excessive deficit procedure enforced through the Stability Pact. The conclusion urges a return to a strict annual balance requirement for governments' current accounts, to impede strategic adjustments of budgetary positions that are in fact creative accounting operations.     

Analyzing the turnout-competition link with aggregate cross-sectional data

Numerous papers by Public Choice oriented scholars and others have sought to test the hypothesis inspired by Downs (1957) that, ceteris paribus, turnout should be higher when elections are close. Most look in cross-sectional terms at variations in turnout at the constituency level for elections of a given type. By and large the results have been disappointing (see, e.g., Foster, 1984). We are skeptical of these weak findings and argue that a complete portrait of the turnout-competition link requires us to examine that link for at least three different types of turnout (turnout among potential eligibles, turnout among registrants, and turnout for a given office relative to other offices such as top of the ticket), and to take into account longitudinal changes in turnout. For recent off-year elections to the U.S. Senate and also for off-year elections to the U.S. House of Representatives in states where there was no gubernatorial or senatorial contest on the ballot, we find strong evidence for higher turnout among eligibles in close contests. For these elections to the U.S. Senate we also find evidence for an ecological effect that leads to turnout being maximized at values of competition other than 50–50. Moreover, when we look at turnout for office relative to top of the ticket voting in the California Assembly and the U.S. Senate in presidential years, we again find some evidence for an ecological effect in which turnout is maximized at a value of Republican vote share above 50 percent and find further strong evidence for a clear link between competition and turnout for office among those at the polls.     

Identifying the Median Justice on the Supreme Court through Multidimensional Scaling: Analysis of “Natural Courts” 1953–1991

Given the fundamental unidimensionality in thedata on Supreme Court voting patterns1951–1993 we observe, we are able todetermine the identity of ``median'' membersof each court in a fashion that does notrequire subjective coding of the extent towhich particular cases reflect left-rightissues. Also, while the exact numericalvalues of MDS-obtained locations cannot becompared across different ``natural courts'',the positions of Supreme Court justicesacross their careers relative to the courtson which they served can be traced. Ourdata show overwhelming quantified evidenceof a very strong rightward drift (relativeto our MDS defined dimensions) in thecomposition of the court as we move fromthe Warren Court to the Burger Court, andagain as we move from the Burger Court tothe Rehnquist Court.     

Limitations of the spatial model

One approach to avoiding the implications of Arrow's paradox is to impose restrictions on the preferences of voters. A restriction often assumed in the literature is that voters' preferences can be represented by a choice among points in a space, where voters' preferences are convex. We claim that these assumptions will often be unjustified. Government must often address issues of externalities or public goods, which means that the possibility frontier will not be concave. This in turn means that voters' preferences over feasible policies will not be convex.     

A: Reviews: general

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POPULAR CULTURE IN MEDIEVAL EGYPT. By BOAZ SHOSHAN. (Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilization.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993. 148pp. $49.95.

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THE MIDDLE EAST AND EUROPE: AN INTEGRATED COMMUNITIES APPROACH. Edited by GERD NONNEMAN. Federal Trust for Education and Research, 1992. 305pp. £30.

STEPPES D'ARABIES. ETATS, PASTEURS, AGRICULTEURS ET COMMERÇANTS: LE DEVENIR DES ZONES SECHES. Edited by RICCARDO BOCCO, RONALD JAUBERT and FRANÇOISE METRAL. Paris, Presses Universitaires de France; Geneva, Cahiers de l'I.U.E.D., 1993. 401pp. n.p.

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CONTEMPORARY SYRIA: LIBERALIZATION BETWEEN COLD WAR AND COLD PEACE. Edited by EBERHARD KIENLE. London, British Academic Press in association with the Centre for Near and Middle Eastern Studies, SOAS, 1994. 187pp.

COEXISTENCE IN WARTIME LEBANON: DECLINE OF A STATE AND RISE OF A NATION. By THEODOR HANF. London: Centre for Lebanese Studies in association with I.B. Tauris, 1993. 646pp.

JUDAISM AND MODERNIZATION ON THE RELIGIOUS KIBBUTZ. By ARYEI FISHMAN. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992. 202pp. £32.50.

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NOMAD: A YEAR IN THE LIFE OF A QASHQA'I TRIBESMAN IN IRAN. By LOIS BECK. Berkeley and Los Angeles, University of California Press, 1991. 489pp. 4 maps, 43 photographs, 9 tables.

THE POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERN CYPRUS. Edited by C.H. DODD. Hemingford Grey, Eothen Press, 1993. 382pp. £24.95 (pb).

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MAHMUD SHALTUT AND ISLAMIC MODERNISM. By KATE ZEBIRI. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1993. viii, 200pp. £27.50.

ISLAM, ECONOMICS AND SOCIETY. By SYED NAWAB HAIDER NAQVI. London, Kegan Paul International, 1994. xxv, 176pp. £35.00.

RELIGION IN THIRD WORLD POLITICS. By JEFF HAYNES. Buckingham, Open University Press, 1993. x, 166pp. £12.99 (pb); £37.50 (hb).

A SYNTAX OF SAN'ANI ARABIC. By JANET C.E. WATSON. (Semitica Viva, 13.) Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz, 1993. xxii, 454pp.; DM 148.

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