Why noncompetitive states are so important for understanding the outcomes of competitive elections: the Electoral College 1868–2016

Brams and Kilgour (Public Choice 170:99–113, 2017) begin their recent essay on the Electoral College (EC) by pointing out the obvious, but nonetheless regularly neglected fact that noncompetitive states may have a decisive impact on EC outcomes and shape the electoral strategies of the candidates in the competitive states, especially if there is asymmetry in the partisan balances in the non-competitive states. Their contribution is to offer combinatorics insights into the implications of such asymmetries in the form of three new indicators: Winningness, Vulnerability, and Fragility. They then explore the magnitude and effects of these three measures for the presidential elections of 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012. The major contribution of this note is to extend their analyses of these measures to an additional 34 elections: every election in the modern two-party post-Civil War era from 1868 to 2016. We find the Winningness measure to predict very well over the entire set of 38 presidential elections. Inspired by their work, we also offer a new and simpler metric for partisan asymmetries in noncompetitive states and show how it can predict the expected closeness of EC outcomes as well or better than the more complex combinatorics measures they propose.     

A taxonomy of runoff methods

We look at ways of classifying runoff methods in terms of characteristics such as number of rounds, rules used to determine which candidates advance to the next round, and rules which determine the final winner. We also compare runoffs and so-called instant runoffs such as the alternative vote.     

论合法性与政治协商

本文主要的意图是根据对卢梭、罗尔斯和西耶斯等理论的分析,探讨合法性基础的建构问题。作者认为,作为合法性基础的不是每个人的确定性意志,而是他们决定意志的过程,即政治协商的过程。虽然协商理论仅仅提供了一种不完善的、尽可能合理地做出决策的方式,但是,这种过程使理性结果的实现更加可能。     

A Communal ASEAN Outlook

The coming of age of China's dialogue relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after three decades has borne the most successful model of cooperation in the Asia Pacific. The largely economic-driven relationship has presented the world with a stable, resilient and symbiotic prototype of collaboration, albeit not without the occasional unyielding litmus test of mutual trust stemming from external maneuvers.     

Towards a theory of bicameralism: the neglected contributions of the calculus of consent

In The Calculus of Consent (1962: 235) Buchanan and Tullock assert: (1)?ceteris paribus, while a coalition controlling less than a majority of voters may control in either chamber, the greater the difference in the bases of representation in the two houses, the less likely is any given coalition of voters to control a majority of the seats in both chambers; (2)?the potential of cross-chamber logrolls (on issues of unequal intensity) increases the likelihood that a minority may effectively control policy making. We link these ideas to social theory approaches to bicameralism and for the empirical study of legislatures.     

Why representatives are ideologists though voters are not

Though few voters appear to hold consistent ideological views, the roll call votes of congressmen and senators can be well predicted by ideological terms. An explanation for this puzzle is that ideology allows candidates to succinctly explain their views. Because it is difficult to explain detailed positions to voters, a candidate who presents his position in ideological terms may be able to defeat a candidate who supports a set of issue positions that would, in toto, be preferred by a majority of well-informed voters were the voters aware of all the views of that candidate. This effect can be a powerful one. Moreover, ideology may be a source of electoral stability, and a means of providing regularity and structure to elite political debate.Amihai Glazer acknowledges support from the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. Bernard Grofman received partial support from Grant SES #85-06376, Decision and Management Science Program, National Science Foundation, and NSF Grant BNS #80-01194 to the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University, at which he was a 1985–86 Fellow. We are indebted to Gordon Tullock for his comments.     

China,US and the North Korean issue

This article explores the strategic interests of China and the US in the North Korean issue. It examines their different perceptions of North Korea. For China, North Korea is needed as a friendly buffer state as well as a political ally. As the lone superpower and lynchpin of international security, the US wants to stop unpredictable North Korea from further developing its nuclear capabilities. The article then explores the shared goal of both great powers in promoting stability on the Korean peninsula and in preventing nuclear proliferation. It is argued that the interplay of Sino–US security interests has a huge impact on the evolution of the North Korean issue.     

海上恐怖主义和海盗威胁

在打击马六甲海峡沿岸的海盗中,区域各方力量已迈出了可喜的一步。在960万公里的海岸线上,沿岸国家印度尼西亚、马来西亚和新加坡为了海上安全,在首次提出“天空之眼”优先战略3个月后,便于2005年9月13日进行联合海上空中巡逻。事实上,“天空之眼”构想是在3个海岸国家共同制定